counting and trading?

i've been playing bj for 3 years now, using TKO at 6D tables. i believe myself to be a reasonably good counter, be it recreational (ie coupla hours a week).
my question focuses on this:

i believe that there do exist similarities between the disciplines of counting cards and trading financial instruments, ie, measuring, understanding and being able to react to changes in risk/reward profiles, under pressure. the skills required being mental dexterity and the ability to feign indifference in the light of certain conditions (cover). Micheal Lewis takes a similar view in his book 'liars poker' when describing bond trader Howie Rubin.

i love blackjack and most analytical games like poker & rummy, but would not want to progress to a professional level.
what im unsure about, is whether or not i should talk about my views and past experiences in upcoming interviews with a large investment bank's derivatives division.

i would appreciate any opinions as to whether it would damage or boost my chances of getting this job. any comments by 'bond trader' or 'wall street dude' would be much appreciated.

many thanks in anticipation.

Patrick

Hi:

Because you might be interviewing with someone who hates gambling, you want to tread easy here. Some folks actually think that those who gamble are:

1. suckers
2. compulsives, who may go over the edge
3. slackers, who will waste valuable time on a losing proposition

Therefore, bring the subject up very casually, and if the person you are talking to knows what BJ is all about, and is a fan, then you could go ahead.

Good luck.

Consider this - the mathematics of BJ are nearly constant. The only variations are the difference in rules from casino to casino.

When it comes to investing in stocks, MANY more variables need to be considered.

If you are adept at playing BJ, it only shows that you can play within the rules.

In financial markets can you anticipate the decline of dot coms? Or the repurcussions of an unexpected increase or decrease of the Fed discount rate?

Personally, I would keep my gambling experience hidden from both employer and clients, yet would use whatever experience you felt might be advantageous to make both of them money.

Jay

for the above responses,

i feel the cruz of the matter is this:
selling myself at the interview.

so inevitably i would be taking a risk as this is my first
meeting with the interviewer and seeing that we're not into the bull market yet, even trying to talk about gambling could provoke quite a negative response! if there's any chance to impress, it would have to be on how convincingly i could sell bj on the skills it helps one develop.

given a fair hearing, however, the following can be argued:

we know that bj is a pure game. that is, parameters and variables of the game are certain (putting aside 'cover' problems) and the statistical relationship between variables known, therefore it can be treated as a mathematical model with no real need to assume anything (again put aside cover for now). of course, pricing models for financial products do incorporate many assumptions - big losses most often occur when these assumptions change (remember LTCM?) and markets tend to irrational extremes. this is one major difference which Jay kindly pointed out.

what im really trying to ask is, can a successful derivatives trader be bred from a successful card counter? i.e., are the disciplines developed, interchangeable?

properly understanding statistical/financial modelling is seen by many as crucial in dealing with complex financial products. here, keen math type bj players will already have an edge.

we can draw analogies between the ways in which both the counter and trader make money. the counter learns how to identify statistical edge - and how to exploit it over the long term, requiring great conviction to act upon his observations/count calculations.
traders (especially in arbitrage roles) will have to rely on similar personal attributes (mental dexterity and stamina, conviction) in order to observe and exploit small imbalances in risk/reward profiles. in short, understanding SD and risk of ruin.

cover is crucial in both games. attracting heat is going to erode any edge. staying cool, misleading the opponent etc. are common for both games.

pursuing the correct strategy for both, is a combination of knowing what the risk/reward profile should be and what it actually is at any point - then exploiting difference.
i also agree with the opinion that the trading of most securities can also resemble poker, once you factor in the political influences upon prices (arising from a multitude of players).

ultimately, i think i won't discuss bj. These interviews dont come easy! unless i really get along with the inteviewer, and he's a math type.

patrick

try asking on rge.com. If lucky Don S. will respond.Shark

I understand the point you would be trying to make on the stastical similarities, but remember that an interview is done with a person (or persons) who may take a different point of view.

As popular and widespread as gambling has become over the last couple decades, there is still a large segment of the population that considers it immoral, sinful, or otherwise distasteful, for whatever personal reasons they may have.

A potential employer may also have concerns that you could possibly have a gambling "problem", which might negatively affect your reliability as an employee. This could happen even if they enjoy gambling themselves.

I strongly suggest keeping any gambling conversation away from your interview.

Jay

Jay,
you're right. at the end of the day, it would be far too risky trying to explain bj as an analytical investment process rather than just 'gambling.' plus, i will know next to nothing about his/her personal views on bj and counting proir to the interview.
many thanks for the insight,
Patrick