Card Counting Simulator

I have created a Blackjack, Card Counting Simulator it is at:

https://mythumbdrive.com/blackjack-hack.php

Try it if you'd like.

It comes up with default values for Counts, Number of Decks, Rules, Sessions to play and Shoes Per Session.  You can change any of the parameters and run simulations and see results.


Phil

Also accessible from

http://www.blackjack-hack.com

I tried your simulator. It seemed working for me but was also very confusing to me.  When I set the true counts to correspond to the bet spreads, I only had three bet ramp steps to choose in a 3 by 3 matrix.  I do not understand why you need these extra details  “first 1/4 deck” “second 1/4 deck” “last 1/2 deck”.  I need more bet ramping steps just in one column to set my bet spread. Another question: are all of the hand plays based on basic strategy only? Not on any index play at all? 

It does it by 1/4 shoe not 1/4 deck. It allows the bets to be increased at different counts depending where in the shoe you are. I want to see the effect of waiting until higher counts to increase the bets early in the shoe. So it offers that flexibility. But one can always increase the bets at the same counts throughout the shoe. I can see how it is confusing.

I can add more betting ramps. I can add 3 more if that would help or how many would you want? 

I can consider adding a way to select how many betting ramps are wanted or to add betting ramps.

Below the betting table there are some strategy variations and a way to set the counts at which the variations will occur. I will likely add function to allow any strategy variation to be selected. But I need to add a way to save inputs and particularly the variations so they would not have to be reentered. 

I added two more betting ramp steps.

Your explanation about the “first 1/4 shoe” and “second 1/4 shoe” makes sense for me now, and your addition of two more betting ramp steps is wonderful. However, there is a major problem with the table about the indices for different blackjack hands, and you need to add at least ten more rows to detail these different indices.  For example, the play decisions for 11vs9, 11vs10, and 11vsA are drastically different and thus you should list them in different rows. Other than this, everything is fine. 

Thanks. Yes, have been adding separate entries for each Strategy Variation will put the update out soon.

I updated the program.

I added separate entries for each strategy variation. The defaults are not exactly what is necessarily standard for hi-lo but are some indices I have been playing that seem to work well but likely do a bit fewer variations than typical -- just to explain why the defaults are not what may be the standard numbers. These can all be adjusted as one wants to change or experiment.

There is now an ace side count that adjusts the true or running count for the excess or deficit of aces. It's only used for the betting decision. You can pick a value such as -1 or -2 for the ace adjust. To not use pick 0 which it defaults to.

The Ace adjustment subtracts or adds to the running count and converts to true count depending on counting mode. It adjusts for the deficit or excess of aces at the point in the shoe before each bet.

I also added a Display Mode in the Playing Sessions Section that displays text for each card, each decision, counts, bets, outcomes for each hand. If you enter y or Y it will display all this. It defaults to n (same as N) - no. It can be a lengthy display if many sessions/shoes are selected so it is more for smaller runs but it is not currently limited.

- Phil

There are a few problems:

1. Regarding Ace side count (Adjusts For Excess/Deficit Of Aces For Betting Example:: -1 or -2 or 0 to not use). Do you mean -2 means that there are 2 deficit of aces per remaining deck?

2. There are a lot of typos in the strategy variation table. For example, "Hit 11 v. A" should be "Double 11 v. A." I typed in illustrious-18 indices, but the resulting $Net does not change very much if I used both $10 and $25 base bet. This does not seem right. 

3. What is Random Shuffle Seed (change or repeat cards)?

4. If I select 'y" on the Display Every Hand (y/n) (Show Every Card, Hand), the program keeps printing out useless long hand results. 

The Ace Side Count adjusts the count for Betting. It adds to the count for the betting decision if there are extra aces remaining in the shoe or deck(s). It subtracts for fewer aces remaining. The adjusted count is just temporarily factored in at the point of the betting decision.

So for example if the box is set to -1 and the count is +4 and there were 6 aces that came out during the first deck of a shoe then the betting decision would be based on +2 divided by the number of decks remaining (if true count) instead of +4 divided by remaining decks. In this case 2 extra aces are out so the penalty is 2 multiplied by -1. If the box was -2 then 4 would be subtracted.

If only 2 aces came out during the first deck then the count for the betting decision would be +6 divided by remaining decks if the box is set to -1.

2. The Hit 11 v. A means hit 11 v. A instead of double. At that count or lower Hit on 11 vs Ace instead of double. I will look at clarifying the strategy variation explanations.

3. The shuffle seed sets up the random function in the program. The random function behaves the same with the same seed and makes the shoe content reproducible for comparison purposes.

If you change the count or strategy but keep the seed the same you will be facing the same random shoes as you did with any count. Change the seed and the shoes are randomly different.

But with the same seed if there are different counts and strategy variations things can progress differently through the shoe so hands can be different even with the same seed. 

4. The Display Every Hand is showing all the bets, cards, counts, decisions results for every hand. I can see if I can make the messages clearer.

- Phil


 

Regarding #2. You need to include the specific decisions for each hand. For example, hit/double 11vsA at +1; hit/stand 16vs9 at +5, hit/surrender 16vs10 at -3. You also only need the Illustrious-18 and fabulous-4 indices, and you do not need to list the hit/double 11vs9 at -5, because the basic strategy of doubling for this hand is already good enough. List only the important (critical) ones. Also, consider dropping the “second 1/2 shoe” column for these play variations because this rarely will affect your outcome.

Regarding #3, I have got what you mean, but how does this number 169 really help the user of this program?  If I use 269, is it better for me?

Changing the shuffle seed gives different shoe content randomly. So not necessarily better or worse. 

I was playing with some numbers starting at 160 and 169 seemed to give some average results. But I am not entirely sure what is average.

For now for 11 v. 9 the index could be set much lower to not use this variation. For the 1/2 shoe the values can be set the same for each 1/2 shoe if wanting to keep the same value throughout the shoe.

I may add something to select or deselect variations or the partial shoe stuff.

Hi,

In multi deck games, 6/8 decks, approx. what percentage time would the count be negative, neutral or positive?
 

For 4.5/6, negative 45.29%, neutral 24.27%, positive 30.44%.
For 6/8, negative 45.92%, neutral 29.02%, positive 25.06%.

Different values, of course, for cuts better or worse than 75%.

Don

True Count frequency graphs

https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount1.htm

 

I updated the simulator:

The shuffles now default to random. However if a seed is specified the same random shuffles can be repeated if the seed is kept the same.

I added an option to enable or disable all strategy variations.

Added some comments on how True Counts are calculated.

Changed the tables to help clarify output.

Added a bar chart for session results.

The display hands option is off until I can update with better displays.

https://www.blackjack-hack.com/blackjack-hack.php

- Phil

Or just 

https://www.blackjack-hack.com

I have tried your simulator for several days but it seems there are some problems. Firstly I disabled All Strategy Variations because these do not make any sense with the current input table.  Then I played the 8-deck game with a $10,000 bankroll for 1600 shoes using a bet spread of $10/20/40/80/100/120 at the True count of 0/+1/2/3/4/5.

If I chose a shuffle seed 0, my net earn $ could swing between -$10000 to $10,000 easily.
If I chose a shuffle seed 168, my net earn $ could consistently fall below -$10000 (Player went broke).
If I chose a shuffle seed 169, my net earn $ could consistently stay at +$4060.

I guess I still don't get this shuffle seed number. If the shuffle seed number is 169, are the 1600 shoes I played all the same?  Or the 1600 shoes are different from each other? 

If the shuffle seed is 0 then all the shoes are random. If the shuffle seed is anything except 0 then the shoes should always be the same. However if you set the strategy variations different, then sequences can vary but the shoes are the same with anything other than 0.