i'm a relatively new blackjack player and i'm wondering if anyone has a system that they have had success with.
i've had a lot of success by using a 25-50-50 system that involves waiting for the dealer to get a few good hands before betting.
i'm interested to see if there are any other successful systems out there.
On the frame on the left, there is a link called 'BJ School' that might give you a few tips. Also, the Online Catalog 'BJ Books' has a lot of titles that describe profitable blackjack systems. I don't think the one you are using is valid, in fact, it is probably worse than flat betting.
i've had continuous success with my system over the past 2-3 months. you can't write something off until you test it properly. i've tested it and it works well for me.
I know a lady who puts in two quarters and then three quarters.
She has hit some big jackpots and is ahead on slots for the past 4 months. Do you think the 2 then 3 quarter system is valid? It works for her.
Another guy has won at craps the past two times he wore a red hat. Do you think this system should be tested further?
Check out some of the links, and you will see why your system is not valid. Anything can happen in the short run. You might have been able to win even more by betting the complete opposite. How do you know?
in blackjack, the outcome relies on what the previous outcome was. it's not like craps where each roll is independant. obviously if the dealer is getting a lot of good hands, there's more chance next time that the dealer will bust.
By good hand, do you mean good for the dealer? As, in a lot of 19s and 20s? What if the dealer has bad hands, and you have blackjacks, is that good or bad? Please explain what you mean by 'good' or 'bad' hands, and why only the dealer? What about your hand, or the other players?
say if the dealer got over 17, two hands in a row, with a lot of low cards, then that's a good hand for the dealer and the next time i would put down my 25 in any box. odds are better that the dealer will bust for 2 reasons. more low cards are gone and the dealer is bound to not get a good hand next time because the dealer can't get good hands forever. obviously the dealer will sometimes get a good hand for 20 times in a row, but i jump ship after 3 and anyway, that doesn't happen enough to make my system unprofitable.
ask more questions if you want me to clarify anything. i could be just lucky.
If you are just focusing on the dealer, then at least 50% of the cards played are not being accounted for. If the dealer has a lot of small cards, but all the players have face cards, then the ratio of small/big cards has not changed. If you are playing a mulideck shoe, then several small cards in a row are not enough percentage-wise to justify a large increase in bet amount on the next hand. Do some reading and poking around on the links I suggested, and you could be started on really playing profitably instead of luckily.
all cards a face-up. i take into account the player's hands too. i only ever use tables that have 1-2 players on it. you can't tell me that if a nice number of small cards are taken out, then next time you're not going to see more high cards. what a joke. it doesn't happen everytime of course, and it doesn't have to either. it just has to happen often enough so that i am profitable.
You would have better luck at single deck using your strategy because small cards in one round will have a much greater effect.
Dont hold your bet short to "good" dealer hands.
What if the dealer just busted using up seven small cards, do you lower your bet? Dont make much sense does it?
the basis of the system is that i'll wait 2-3 times before placing down my 25. if that loses, then 50, loses again, then 50, loses again, go to another table. that's more important to the system than the small cards. the small card part only compliments the waiting 2-3 times part.
i don't have access to a casino with a 1 deck shoe anyway. the system makes plenty of sense. i don't run for ever with it too. i'll aim for 50-75 per session. i get that, then take a break. then i go back after 15 minutes or so and go again. it's not like counting, where i play hand after hand to increase my winnings. my aim is to jag a few then run.
..for the kind of nonsense you're into.
This site is for "advantage play", not gambling per se. There is a big difference. Learn it.
it's bj misc. i believe that i'm in the correct board.
your system sounds a lot like mine--the same one the old timers have been poo-pooing here for weeks now
:-)
for the life of me, I will never be able to figure out why someone would even want to sit at the same table in the same spot for four freakin' hours. all you are guaranteed to do is lose $$$. For example, take ANY computer sim--ANY of them--and check to see how many times the player leaves with his high winnings for the round (a/k/a marathon session). Why is that? Simple. House odds will always catch up to you...so once you're ahead, LEAVE. Go play another table....get up....and then repeat ad infinium.
You can easily make over $100k annually with this system--betting high units is the key. Hey, if you're up just one chip betting black ones, and you do that 4 times in an hour--you're up $400 smackers. With just 5 hours per weekend, you're clipping along at a $100k per year pace man!
The key to my system--understanding and reacting properly to streaks! Very similar to what is being discussed here...very similar indeed.
In essence, I don't care as much about the total count as I do about the immediate count. Knowing BOTH helps tremendously, of course.
i'm glad someone can see my side of the story. so i guess we are just lucky guys? :P
counting is ridiculously boring and isn't suitable for anyone that has a life. i have a life so i use my method which so far has worked fine.
good luck and keep on winning.
"Incompetent gambler"
That's all you're doing
SOTSOG was diplomatically trying to steer you to links that would educate you on the statistical aspects of the game. Obtaining some basic facts about the game will allow you to give up the myths involved in betting systems. If you're not convinced after getting some facts, then you probably ought to end up on the progressions page.
It sounds like you have a certain amount of savvy, that you have been able to deduce that little cards being expended boosts your advantage. Now is the time to boost that savvy with some science.
Good luck.
You are simply getting lucky. You are using a rather arbitrary progression system. You can't use personal success to justify the use of a system with a negative expectation. Counting wins in the long run, whereas sooner or later you will lose.
--Homer J.
Guru, you're off to a good start in understanding your advantage derives from deck composition, but your getting skepticism and derision because you really can say where your "system" objectively tells you when you have the advantage and what the extent of it is. One way or another, all counting systems do is measure the ratio of high cards to low. Betting correlations and playing efficiency are grounded in mathematics. Their performance can be simulated and their results can be duplicated by others. On the other hand, You seem to base your wagering decisions very much on arbitrary measures. Among the more compelling gambling myths out there is that an ordinary player can develop a "system" all of his own on some kind of intuitive level and have it work for him. It's great Hollywood stuff, but in the real world, it comes down to numbers. If you can't measure your system in terms of mathematical probability, it's just guesswork. Sorry. :(
