Blackjack swings

Everyone knows that in blackjack their are huge swings in wins and losses. Sometimes it can take over 100 hours to even come out ahead when considering the worst outcomes with 2 standard deviations, (I read this is blackjack school from this site). Consequently a large bankroll is required in order to work through the extreme lows that one can experience.

On some of my personal experiences playing blackjack, I've been on many tables and no matter what happens the dealer is just "lightning white hot" regardless of the count. When the count would rise to lets say TC 4 or higher, I would get murdered. The funny thing is I pretty much figured that I would lose the hand based on the current trend of cards coming out.

As a counter, I know that you need to disregard the streaks and play the exact way and the odds will way out in your favor.

Is there anyway to help reduce these wild swings? A possible way would be when the table is "ice cold" and the count is high, just bet a little more than the minumum. If you win great, but, if you lose, you're not dumping back all your money.

Any extra advice, comments, help, or suggestions would be apprecaited. Maybe there isn't anything you can do. I already know that one method would be is just get up and take a break but I'm looking for something more.

Thanks,
Brendan

Your formula of either not spreading enough on a high count when things have been going bad or even worse, taking a break on a high count to avoid possibly losing more, are typical for many people who try cardcounting and then quit as losing counters.

The only way to be a winner without spreading at high counts is to wong in and only play on high counts. If you are playing all, the only way you overcome that house edge and make a decent profit is to spread when the count calls for it. By spreading less you will make less or nothing depending upon the game and just what kind of spread you use.

Unfortunately, a big part of being able to beat this game is
having the foritude to handle those swings. In order to win big sometimes you will lose big. Using your example of a +4 count, that is generally a 1.5% edge for you over the casino. 1.5% is a very small edge in the short term and yet large in the long term, anything can happen short term.

On the other hand; if you really only wish to play a slightly positive game, perhaps get loads of comps, and have longevity, then perhaps cutting your variance might be the right playing method for you. It is kind of like a crossroad that only you can choose for yourself.
1. Be a predator at the table and go for the casino's throat, knowing that sometimes the casino will get you.
2. Find a comfort level that you can handle and play within it, being satisfied that you may not make big bucks at the game.

I appreciate the feed back. This information is helpful.

You said:

"When the count would rise to lets say TC 4 or higher, I would get murdered. The funny thing is I pretty much figured that I would lose the hand based on the current trend of cards coming out."

A. There are no "trends" to folow.

B. Your chances of winning the next hand with a T.C. of +4 is almost the same as it is with a ZERO. About 43% in either case.

Your advantage at high counts is derived by:

Increased Blackjacks
Improved results on Double Downs and Splits

You still will NOT win a majority of your hands.

Suboptimal betting will certainly reduce your swings but it will also reduce your win rate and therefore jeopardize your long term success.
It seems paradoxical that optimal betting with the best rules, deepest penetration and the fastest dealer produces the wildest short term fluctuations. But this is simply because that way you get the most money in action.

Francis Salmon

the highest quality games you can. Deep pen, best rules.

Some of the best shoes I have enjoyed have begun with the rising count, the dealer making those 6 card 21's and the whole table getting killed, including me. Players begin fleeing to hot dealer, cold shoe or whatever, often leaving just me at the table.
As the count continues to rise I might continue to lose more hands than I win but very often once that count begins it's downward path, I am winning with max or near max bets. Of course, sometimes you still lose but more often than not, you win.

the wide swings. I think. Ask the pros but even though it doesn't do a ton for win rate, I sure do like folding a lousy hand!

When the table was cold I would be scarred of putting the big bets out in fear of losing them. I understand that you need the mind set to work through the bad times and you can't think like this. If I'm going to be playing bj, I know that I would have to have a nice session bank roll to play through the bad times and continue just sticking to the plan.