Betting systems

It seems most BJ sites look down on betting systems.

I use the D'Alembert system to great success (although I came up with it on my own out of trial and error, after some shortlived success with the Martingale system).

Sure, you will have your bad nights where you lose more than 60% of the time, and won't make a profit....but if you set yourself rules and play with discipline it's easy to make money...

Since using this system, ive won more than 90% of the time by just setting moderate targets, quitting while ahead, having a healthy bankroll, and setting loss limits...

In short, it has to be a very bad night for me not to survive...the very good, decent, and poor nights easily more than make up for this...

If you play smart, betting systems can work....

the house edge doesnt even come into it...the fact that on average you will roughly win 49 hands out of 100 means the odds for winning each hand is pretty much the same as losing....50%

if i remember right, (for red & black or heads/tails) it will be 45-55 or closer 65% of the time....90% 60-40....

on a 40-60 (lose more hands) the d'alembert system would come out roughly even....means quit on a high and you'll still make money....

on a 45-55 you make ground, given a medium $ table for an hour or 2, good money can be made....

the fact is with smart play, knowing when to quit and not being greedy are the most important aspects of success in BJ (IMO)....

even a BS player can make money just by qutting while theyre ahead....

the fact that i win more than 80% (career, only 7 months, im only 19 ;) including alot of earlier stupidity (learning experience) i'd say thats not bad....

with the way i play i better 90%.....

so dont tell betting strategies are worthless....they are to most, but given the RIGHT attributes, a smart player CAN use it to make a very attractive profit....

i only speak from my experience

Seven months of gambling isn't much experience at all. I presume that you have been playing every now and then and not on a full-time basis. Keep using your system and tell us how successful it has been after you have put in a few hundred hours at the tables. I suspect you might have a different perspective by then.

Meantime, watch the thread grow on this one.

How many mistakes can you spot in the above post?

Winner gets a free Westward Ho Mega "Ho Dog".

why the BJ sites look down on betting systems. It has been mathematically proved that no betting system can beat a negative expectation game.

Id expect this to get quite a few posts...

yes i am very inexperienced...but it is full time....this is my income....i normally go about once every 2 days...more when restarting my bankroll, less when i'm aiming to win bigger...

i only speak out of my experience (which is mainly positive)

sure, i agree that a betting system can be pretty foolish (losing streak???), but what i am saying is that surely blended with other ideas it could work for the right person???

this is the one part of my life where i am VERY disciplined, which i think is probally the key to why im winning....

i know that 75-85 visits isnt alot, but id say that since ive won most of them, im doing something right...

lately ive had a bad run with cards, but have still won 6/7 of my last visits....

im not saying it works all the time, im not saying it works for everyone....just maybe i have managed to get it working for me...

given that over the long run you will roughly (ROUGHLY) win about the same number of hands as you lose, and that your winning hands are of more value than your losing hands, how can it be impossible???

the only way anyone could lose is if they busted theyre bank...

if you implement rules, guidelines etc this will not happen often....

not trying to be a smart ass, i just cant see given the odds of roughly 50/50, with wins worth more than losses (easily makes up for house edge) that it cant work....

anyway care to show me the light???

The casino will be glad to 'show you the light'.
They are very happy to teach you a very expensive
lesson in "Probability 101".
Just keep going to casino "class" faithfully,
you will get all the education you can afford.

I have started as a counter and recently have been researching betting system and simulating them, but not yet in real play.
The reason why mathematically it is supposedly impossible to win in the long run is because the amount of the bet made is based on whether ir not the last hand was won or lost. But the next hand has no better or worse chance of being a winner or loser based on the previous hand.
Negative progressions rely on a choppy game and positive progressions rely on streaks of hands, but a win or loss cannot be predicted.
So, whatever is placed in the betting circle is put through the same house advantage as any bet.
The reason why progressions seem to work is that they rely on events that tend to happen.
The Martingale system, for instance, is always a success as long as one does not hit a very, very long losing streak before the betting limit is hit. So the mathematical question to be asked is:
1. How often is the occurrence of one of these losing streaks and
2. Will the amount of money made during the winning sessions be more than what is lost in the big losing sessions?
For the Martingale, because in most casinos your will probably only be able to double up 6 or 7 times (min 5 max 500 for example), the answer is no. HOWEVER, it is mathematically shown that under conditions where one could double their bet 11 times or more, then yes, mroe money will be made in the long run than is lost in the big losing sessions.

There are other reasons why betting systems are frowned upon. First of all, usually a lot of money has to be wagered (such as in the Martingale where you might lose a lot just for winning 1 unit). Second, books written containing betting systems are usually moneymakers and scams, written for people to read on a flight to Vegas and then think that they can win a ton of money.

However, this system I am putting through simulations right now seems to be very successful, and the person I got it from has been using it to make a living, playing about 20 hours a week for the past three decades. I didn't pay for it, we met on the net and he gave it to me for free.
So I am not really sure what to think of betting systems. There doesn't really seem to be a consensus of what is considered "In the long run" to see whether or not something is a success. Keep us posted on how it goes, though.

in your post, you said that we win or lose roughly the same amount of hands, but the fact is that even with basic strategy, the house does have the advantage, even by just a little. It is a very small amount, but it is an amount that the casino is relying upon to grind out our bankroll over time.

anon,

Thank you for the kind words. I do at times feel obligated to try to help progression players see the light but usually they are voodoo type players that "don't care what the experts say." They often are the same ones that believe that a deviation from BS can turn an entire shoe sour. They don't react well to logic and sometimes helpful attempts turn into Puiu type flames. I (and others) no longer have the patience for this. That is why we want them to have their own page. I have only read the progression page once (months ago) and was successful at overcoming my urge to post there. I have posted a mathematical proof on this board several times PROVING that progressions DON'T WORK. Unless someone can find a flaw in the proof, I don't want to discuss progressions at all (except how to use them as camouflage). Hey, I am open minded. I believe in weird things like ESP and the possibility of life or other planets. But I do not believe in science fiction like "hot dealers" and "cold tables". Please don't bring up "clumping" either.

Why progressions don't work - Proof by Dr 21

Consider the betting progression (or regression) with a 50/50 proposition (like a coin toss)

Start at N units
If you win bet N1 units (if you lose, start over at N units)
If you win bet N2 units (if you lose, start over at N units)
If you win bet N3 units (if you lose, start over at N units)
If you win bet N4 units (if you lose, start over at N units), etc

1. Bet N units

Half of the time you win - go to 2

Half of the time you lose - go to 1

Net result of m "flips" at "Station 1".

(0.5)*(m)*(N units) + (0.5)*(m)*(-N units) = 0

2. Bet N1 units

Half of the time you win - go to 3

Half of the time you lose - go to 1

Net result of m1 "flips" at "Station 2".

(0.5)*(m1)*(N1 units) + (0.5)*(m1)*(-N1 units) = 0

3. Bet N2 units

Half of the time you win - go to 4

Half of the time you lose - go to 1

Net result of m2 "flips" at "Station 3".

(0.5)*(m2)*(N2 units) + (0.5)*(m2)*(-N2 units) = 0

4. Bet N3 units

Half of the time you win - go to 5

Half of the time you lose - go to 1

Net result of m3 "flips" at "Station 4".

(0.5)*(m3)*(N3 units) + (0.5)*(m3)*(-N3 units) = 0 etc.
.

Overall net result of m + m1 + m2 + m3 + etc. flips is:

0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + etc. = 0

For a negative expectation game e.g. say 49 wins and 51 losses out of every 100 tries, put a 0.49 in place of the first 0.5 and a 0.51 in place of the second 0.5 to see that the betting scheme always results in a negative expectation. For example:

Net result of m3 "flips" at "Station 4".

(0.49)*(m3)*(N3 units) + (0.51)*(m3)*(-N3 units) = (-0.02)*(m3)*(N3 units)

If you want, you can reverse the words win and loss so that your bet changing occurs after a loss rather than a win. No stipulation is made in regards to the magnitudes of N, N1, N2, N3, etc. For example N1 can be larger, smaller or the same as N.

Conclusion: Progressions can not turn a losing game into a winning game.

Mr. J, your first response above was from Bootlegger, a very knowledgeable and respected poster. He was too modest to post a link to a post he wrote a long time ago, which may be helpful to you. So I'll do it (link below). It's from the BJ Reference section.

The sad reality is that all progression systems are worthless, and you have a 100% chance of eventually losing all your money.

Get some good books on counting and other advantage play. See the Online Catalog at this webstie.

Avoid books by John Patrick, Jerry Patterson, Donald Dahl, and Richard Harvey -- all worthless.

Trust Wong, Schelesinger, Snyder, and several others. Be assured that any book you buy from this website is legitimate.

Good luck.

There are many players who share your belief in the merits of progressive betting and money management. E-mail me at the above address, and I'll be glad to share some of my experience with you.

i agree with you...

except with the house edge....with the way i play it really is insignificant...

all i am sayin, is that it IS possible to make money with some betting systems, if this player goes about things the right way...

as for the martingale...sure, if you only want to win one unit its great, but longterm is terrible, i know that, ive been there...

i guess i dont play 'long' sessions, most are about an hour, about 1k each time at the $25 table...

i normally use a 1-10 spread, (with d'alembert system) and rarely get past the 6th unit bet...

i tend to play choppy games....this system is great with choppy play...

with my normal sessions, i limit my wins to 2k and losses to 1k...

ive never bought in for over 1k....

even if i only win 2/3rds of them time, id still make 1k/session

i understand that this system goes on the result of the last hand, but you have to admit that in the 'real' world, every loss will eventually lead you to a win....

ive worked sessions up to 10 hours before, and any shorterm losing streak is normally cushioned by money already won....

over the long run, the odds are you will have roughly the same number of wins as losses....

you can all state that every hand is independent and does not rely on the result of the preceeding hands,
but can you honestly say that every loss doesnt bring you closer to a win???

How have you managed to keep track of all those posts? You must have an excellent Management Information System which enables you to record, retrieve, and respond to any subject at will! :-)

As you said, "watch the thread grow."

I'm responding to this post only because you seem sincere. Please do not continuing posting unless you can prove what have to say. If you believe a progression system will give you a positive expectation, then you should be able to demonstrate what the expected value is.

As I recall, in the D'Alembert system, you add 1 unit after a loss and subtract 1 after a win. Let's assume an even money bet with a 50/50 chance of winning. Assume you start with a 10 unit bet. After the first round you have two equally possible outcomes:

W: +10
L: -10
Total = 0

After the second round you have four equally possible outcomes:

WW: +19
WL: +1
LW: +1
LL: -21
Total = 0

After the third round you have eight equally possible outcomes:

WWW: +27
WWL: +11
WLW: +11
WLL: -9
LWW: +11
LWL: -9
LLW: -9
LLL: -33
Total = 0

Notice that after three rounds, your expected value is still 0. My challenge for you is to come up with a situation where you will have a positive EV after examining all the possible outcomes. However, before start, you should consider that there are many on this board (myself included) that can prove absolutely that it is impossible for you to succeed.

If you can't come up with a positive expectation on a 50/50 game, how are you going to become positive on a negative game? Note that in BJ, you win about 43%, lose about 48%, and tie the rest.

Know, can't say, things just happen that way. Itching to tell. Down too much. Must recoup. Will tell eventually. Math friendly. Selfish! yes; intentional - no.

There's a reason why casinos do not freely offer "SURRENDER", yet the majority of players do not really appreciate its value in playing for serious income.

Let your mind FLOW into the perfect state.

Stan Frank?