back-betting european casinos--riding horses.
Posted By: toecheese <ricksta13@aol.com> on 16 October 01, 2:02 p.m.
i'm a new counter (about 3 months or so). i've been wonging and back-betting in german casinos with success using hi-lo. since it's hard to find players who know basic strategy, i am content to find somebody who is not a complete idiot and who stands on 16, 10 and 12,2--correct moves at high TCs, and i only play in TCs of +3 or higher. at the casinos i frequent, i have found my favorite 'horses'--regulars whom i prefer to ride. since german tables are almost always full and many have 3 person minimums, i have seen true counts of +1 and +2 rapidly go negative before the dealer takes his cards (in european no hole card games) with 5 decks out. here's my question, given the two circumstances above, am i justified in back-betting at true counts of +3 or higher (rather than at +1 or +2)? my hunch is that the higher the true count, the less important decision-making on the table actually is. hence, the higher the count, the more i should be able to get away with back-betting behind *conservative* idiots.
let me make a more specific question--let's say i back-bet behind somebody who regularly stands on 15 and 16 against ANY dealer card (yes, such players exist in germany!). also, let's say i only back-bet behind such idiots on true counts of +5 or higher (on a table full of players). assuming the idiot horse also does not hit 12, 2 or 12, 3 (rather conversative personalities who make plays that are correct at high counts), but who nonetheless does not split eights against 9, 10 or ace, should i back-bet behind such players? in other words, are these horses worth riding at counts of +3 or higher?
i have made good money back-betting on idiots so far in germany. i mean, with a true count of +8, does it really matter who's making the decision? of course, sometimes these idiots will burn you, but CONSERVATIVE idiots seem to be worth the ride on high TCs. many times i ride morons on high TCs and cash in on 20s and blackjacks.
even not splitting eights vs. 10 with a TC+6 is the correct move (Wong). so again...i ask you, of the electronic bj community, would you ride these horses?
i should also add that there's no heat in germany (just rain!) and that i get away with obscene bet spreads and happily split tens when warranted by the count. dealers are used to seeing such stupidity that nothing i do stands out (haha). also, i'm told that german casinos aren't allowed to kick out counters.
i have another question. in casinos where the ace doesn't "swing" and soft doubling is not allowed, am i justified in doubling A,8 and A,9 against 4,5,6 at high true counts (+5 or higher)? sometimes i wong into tables (when they aren't completely crowded and when the count is high).
so can anybody out there help answer my very first questions on the internet?
thanks!
ToeCheeze
