Anyone still winning in here, by counting?

I don't think card counting works. Curious to know if anybody is winning consistently for years with it.
How can anybody be a professional? Never seen one in my life!
All the card counters I've met are broke! Some degenerate tramps, no job, no wifes.

I like to hear some encouragement from any lucky soul who's been winning lots with it. Before I plunge into my local casino with a second mortgage.

I am consistently, although I haven't been counting for 10 years.

What is the number one mistake that kills counters? Betting too much. If you are serious about making money at this game, you MUST understand risk of ruin, and Kelsey betting.

The idea of Kelsey betting is that you bet an amount of your bankroll proportional to your advantage. In a perfect world, if you have a 1% advantage, you bet 1% of your bankroll. With 0% advantage (at TC +1 or less), you bet 0.

The AMAZING thing, is if you consistently bet more than double that amount, your risk of ruin is 100%. Yes, there are a lot of counters who lose their shirts. Many have sufficient skill, but lose from not understanding risk of ruin.

"I am consistently, although I haven't been counting for 10 years."

No wonder, you quit when you grind up a dollar knowing that you'll lose it back if you pla more.

"What is the number one mistake that kills counters? Betting too much. If you are serious about making money at this game, you MUST understand risk of ruin, and Kelsey betting."

You mean J.L. Kelly's new interpretation of information rate? Not Kelsey, dunmbo.

"The idea of Kelsey betting is that you bet an amount of your bankroll proportional to your advantage. In a perfect world, if you have a 1% advantage, you bet 1% of your bankroll. With 0% advantage (at TC +1 or less), you bet 0."

What about variance? Most games you have to split and double, right? So Kelly is not just proportion to advantage.

"The AMAZING thing, is if you consistently bet more than double that amount, your risk of ruin is 100%. Yes, there are a lot of counters who lose their shirts. Many have sufficient skill, but lose from not understanding risk of ruin."

Yes, if you start counting again, you will add to that statistic.

honestly most counters I know are losers. This is normal, don't be ashamed. I want to know if there are any lucky ones to motivate me to take a shot.

I agree, most counters are losers. You're actually better off being the ploppy. You're still a loser but at least you're a damn good one that's highly adored by casinos.

Conform,comply and comp yourself on the back for being like eveybody else...a happily married loser with a job. Oh,well at least you can afford it,huh buddy?

Keep enough to feed those kids though.

Don't take that second mortgage out. You will fail. If it needs to be explained you wouldn't understand the explanation. Just play low stakes for fun and it will be an inexpensive way to satisfy your gamling addiction. You might get some free dinners while you're at it. Even a blind squirrel will find a nut once in a while.

A few points however...it is "Kelly" not Kelsey. Second, ROR isn't quite 100% if you bet 2x Kelly. If it was really 100% you could beat casinos in financial trouble with a large enough syndicate by betting the table max and "forcing" the casino to overbet.
The true ROR figure is fractionally less than 100%. A small minority of overbetting counters will win hundreds of thousands and "win back" the losses of all the other overbetting counters.

But I agree with your sentiment. The dangers of ROR can't be overstated.

I am always amused by counters who think they have a secure future by using some special betting systems. Remember, counting or not, this is GAMBLING. NO betting system, Kelsey or whatever, can guarantee you anything. Even if you have $10 million bankroll and are betting $5 a hand, you can lose it all, even if statistics say you have 1% advantage. Ironic, but true. A clueless plopster playing at 5% disadvantage, with $50 bankroll, can get damn lucky and win $100 000 in a year while the most competent expert counter, playing at 2% advantage, with $100 000 bankroll, following whatever Kelsey system, can slip down to $50. Remember, counter or not, you are a GAMBLER.
Even casinos go broke occasionally, and how much advantage they have over the average plop? A lot, but shit happens even to them.

Are you trying to say that you have been making millions by counting cards? Never heard so much bullshit.
I bet with my second mortgage that you're a loser.

My hobbies are wine women and car that shine.

You obviously do not know the background of the DD' you are responding to. Experience such as his is only gained through numerous years "on the job". Stick around - you can and will learn much from those with experience. You may even want to consider the Green Chip section where many others offer sound advice (both theoretical and empirical).

rwp

I haven't made millions. I've just made a good middle class living for the last five years. About a half million. But I was talking about you. It would not be a good idea for you to try it as you would surely fail.

who would you put your money on? The competent counter with the huge bankroll and small advantage,or the ploppy with the tiny bankroll and large disadvantage? Which of the two types do you think the casinos want to play against?

Frenchman

my hobbies are blackjack and video poker.

I don't understand why you say counting is not working? Perhaps you are too lazy, only play at poor bj environment? There are many places, not in the States... I am afraid, that offer ESA, joker, rebates etc. I travelled far to play and made a living, bj counting was the only source of income of me for 9 years. It seemed I don't exist...?????

Why do they still have good games?