Anybody know this one?
If a player decided to play with a non-value hand (stiff) against a 5 or 6 showing, how high would the TC have to be before the player actually has a positive EV in this situation.
If a player decided to play with a non-value hand (stiff) against a 5 or 6 showing, how high would the TC have to be before the player actually has a positive EV in this situation.
I used CVData and a modified double deck shoe pulling out more and more 4,5,6 value cards until most of the "stiff" player hands had an edge vs dealer 4,5,6 upcards. I had to pull out a total of 15 cards, 5 each of 4,5,and 6 from the pack to get most of the negative EV situations to go away. (note, even then 16 vs 6 the dealer still has an 0.44% advantage). Conclusion....in the real world, if you get a stiff hand and you are given a choice as to whether to play or get your money back...take the money.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | Dealer Up Card | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Ace | Totals | |
| 2 | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A | See A,A |
| 3 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 | See A,2 |
| 4 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 | See A,3 and 2,2 |
| 5 | -9.35 | -0.95 | 8.30 | 16.87 | 9.22 | -26.98 | -36.84 | -44.49 | -53.86 | -67.12 | -35.28 |
| 6 | -9.45 | 1.52 | 12.44 | 16.16 | 11.32 | -25.00 | -36.72 | -44.79 | -54.40 | -66.02 | -34.84 |
| 7 | -4.74 | 7.21 | 18.02 | 22.85 | 18.57 | -4.55 | -27.88 | -37.09 | -47.61 | -62.91 | -27.35 |
| 8 | 7.38 | 17.19 | 31.77 | 36.72 | 29.82 | 15.29 | -4.49 | -23.83 | -36.28 | -52.90 | -13.95 |
| 9 | 16.83 | 20.87 | 30.39 | 38.47 | 33.76 | 28.91 | 15.64 | -3.68 | -25.07 | -42.45 | 2.24 |
| 10 | 29.89 | 34.76 | 43.27 | 50.23 | 47.81 | 35.18 | 24.04 | 13.83 | -4.11 | -28.77 | 19.34 |
| 11 | 36.24 | 41.86 | 46.13 | 52.74 | 50.03 | 35.14 | 24.69 | 18.09 | 7.37 | -5.78 | 21.83 |
| 12 | -24.28 | -19.50 | -0.21 | 4.64 | 0.69 | -27.14 | -32.99 | -39.26 | -47.59 | -61.83 | -35.25 |
| 13 | -17.97 | -7.98 | -0.12 | 5.13 | 0.54 | -39.18 | -44.16 | -47.84 | -55.02 | -67.87 | -39.77 |
| 14 | -17.35 | -6.99 | 1.25 | 5.29 | 0.27 | -50.11 | -55.27 | -58.58 | -64.29 | -74.48 | -46.57 |
| 15 | -15.84 | -6.65 | 0.30 | 3.02 | 0.67 | -54.15 | -61.88 | -68.12 | -73.02 | -80.76 | -51.75 |
| 16 | -18.07 | -6.34 | 0.20 | 4.12 | -0.44 | -47.41 | -56.22 | -62.92 | -68.98 | -77.46 | -48.62 |
| 17 | -8.01 | 2.93 | 11.76 | 15.10 | 10.91 | -8.15 | -44.70 | -48.21 | -52.82 | -66.22 | -32.85 |
| 18 | 12.09 | 22.35 | 34.32 | 41.78 | 34.65 | 46.25 | 9.30 | -25.23 | -29.99 | -48.48 | -5.15 |
| 19 | 34.87 | 39.46 | 50.78 | 61.70 | 58.79 | 68.79 | 61.41 | 25.32 | -7.74 | -21.64 | 22.34 |
| 20 | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X | See A,9 and X,X |
| 21 | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X | See A,X |
| A,2 | 5.08 | 14.00 | 20.04 | 25.54 | 20.99 | -0.79 | -8.27 | -13.43 | -26.03 | -47.18 | -8.99 |
| A,3 | 0.71 | 9.40 | 17.55 | 20.22 | 15.83 | -12.08 | -17.70 | -26.69 | -34.81 | -55.41 | -16.85 |
| A,4 | -5.00 | 4.95 | 5.73 | 17.38 | 11.41 | -16.90 | -28.94 | -36.90 | -47.18 | -63.59 | -25.33 |
| A,5 | -0.57 | 7.24 | 15.54 | 24.39 | 21.22 | -16.10 | -24.83 | -36.68 | -47.56 | -61.61 | -22.81 |
| A,6 | 5.33 | 13.46 | 18.38 | 31.46 | 29.45 | 2.60 | -15.30 | -25.83 | -37.27 | -56.32 | -11.47 |
| A,7 | 13.86 | 24.23 | 33.16 | 40.34 | 34.93 | 49.26 | 9.29 | -10.92 | -23.42 | -44.17 | 4.42 |
| A,8 | 36.43 | 41.68 | 50.80 | 63.12 | 58.23 | 69.23 | 62.49 | 25.29 | -8.19 | -23.36 | 22.35 |
| A,9 | 61.81 | 60.44 | 68.29 | 78.05 | 77.92 | 82.37 | 80.29 | 77.30 | 40.95 | 3.75 | 55.63 |
| A,X | 150.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | 137.82 | 97.35 | 141.48 |
| A,A | 36.87 | 42.40 | 46.45 | 54.14 | 50.13 | 36.35 | 28.68 | 18.20 | 10.96 | -7.90 | 24.47 |
| 2,2 | 1.26 | 11.45 | 24.44 | 28.73 | 26.14 | 2.61 | -29.64 | -38.11 | -47.64 | -61.00 | -10.16 |
| 3,3 | 0.66 | 12.79 | 19.50 | 28.00 | 24.87 | -4.98 | -36.59 | -44.43 | -54.14 | -67.17 | -15.62 |
| 4,4 | 8.31 | 19.07 | 23.17 | 27.40 | 16.38 | 21.52 | -4.31 | -23.55 | -35.52 | -45.41 | -9.72 |
| 5,5 | 29.18 | 36.06 | 45.63 | 49.47 | 45.72 | 30.28 | 25.58 | 17.15 | -2.98 | -27.19 | 19.35 |
| 6,6 | -2.38 | 11.83 | 23.73 | 29.24 | 14.95 | -30.04 | -44.29 | -50.44 | -47.95 | -63.65 | -19.52 |
| 7,7 | 5.92 | 15.95 | 26.66 | 27.15 | 21.89 | 1.46 | -55.62 | -60.54 | -67.22 | -76.18 | -17.64 |
| 8,8 | 16.19 | 23.95 | 30.46 | 35.87 | 34.06 | 23.25 | 2.75 | -12.69 | -24.08 | -32.73 | -1.44 |
| 9,9 | 18.09 | 23.24 | 34.41 | 40.08 | 34.25 | 46.62 | 16.82 | -3.02 | -28.72 | -47.02 | 6.79 |
| X,X | 60.25 | 61.55 | 67.46 | 77.26 | 78.60 | 82.71 | 80.68 | 76.13 | 40.18 | 6.02 | 55.54 |
| Tot | 19.86 | 26.24 | 34.71 | 40.36 | 36.94 | 21.90 | 9.88 | -0.85 | -16.25 | -35.90 | 3.08 |
With AOII the TC would have to be about 40 to even start considering staying in with a stiff hand against 5 or 6 if given the option to play or pull the bet off the table.
