Hi, all.
Would a $4,000 bankroll (200 max bets) be adequate to play some of the better $5 2-deck games in Tunica or on the MS coast? I'm assuming a 1-4 spread and use of the "illustrious 18." Please advise...
Thanks in advance,
D
If you are in Tunica, play the single deck with your red unit. A 1-4 spread will not cut it for the available double deck games. And when you are playing single deck, try to slowly work more and more indices into your game.
Math Boy
There are few $5 SD games left; where they exist, they are nearly always full because the casinos that have them have only one table. There are several places with $10 SD games, so you are looking at a bankroll of only 100 max bets. PV
I couldn't believe it myself but I calculated your ROR at about 95 % . It is partly your 1 - 4 spread. It isn't enough. When I change your spread to 1 - 12, your ROR goes to 27 % . Play 6 deck with better rules and spread 1 - 12, I think you'll get better results.
hey memory...
it seems to me that 1-12 on 2d would attract quite a bit of attention, even at the red chip level. (especially at some of the sweatier joints in tunica) i'm tryng to get away from shoes, although the soe game at BR is tempting from time to time. Just my thoughts.
D
Yeah 1-5 should make most decent DDs playable, if it isnt playable at 1-5 I just dont play it. Then again, Im just a short drive to Vegas, so I can be a little picky:)
D
....you do need at least a 1-12 at a 6D as MM suggested (unless you are wonging). IMHO, if my choices are between spreading what I can get away with but not make money at a DD, spreading what I can't get away with at DD, or playing a 6D, the decision is pretty clear:) Good DD may be ideal, but most 6D is better then crappy DD any day of the week...
D
risk should not be an issue....if you go bust you've only lost a few thousand bucks. You should play 2x10-2x90 at double deck and hope for good things. Better yet, play 2x10-2x90 at single deck. Don't resize if you lose (you're already at rock bottom) don't resize as you win until you get > $10,000 to work with...then gradually resize upward.
1-12 is my standard spread at double deck...and it's in $50 units not red. I know several other players who spread 1-12 at double deck in $200 units...I suggest you rethink what you think attracts attention. Red chips don't get much attention at all in Tunica.
risk of ruin is unimportant for those with limited bankrolls. You will probably go bust anyway. Risk of ruin becomes more and more important as your bankroll becomes more and more irreplaceable.
I suppose with a team, but 1-12 as a single counter without attracting attention?? REALLY??
I cant imagine, but if you say so...
D
betting $5 to 2x$30 (1-12) is hardly going to raise an eyebrow anywhere. Betting 2x$100-2x$1200 is obviously going to raise eyebrows at many places...even with cover...but not at all. My point is that to automatically dismiss a 1-12 spread as impossible without taking into account all factors is a mistake.
How are you guys getting 95% ROR on a $4000 BR spreading 1-4 red for this person? The DD games on the MS coast are all S17 DAS, there are a precious few with LS and RSA, and if you don't get at least 60% pen you aren't working very hard and I can usually find a little better than that. Just keep your eyes open. Plug those numbers into BJRM and the ROR for $4000 is only like 2.1%.
Secondly, biglayer's right on the money again. You can spread the hell out of a red game if you're a decent player at all. I play down in Biloxi on an almost weekly basis and for a long long time up until just very recently I played the red tables and spread from $5 to 2 hands of $30 (and sometimes $40) with very little attention and usually (meaning 99% of the time) none. But they will nail you there too on less than that if you play the stereotypical counter game. ie-stare at the cards, don't seem like you're having fun, don't talk to the floor and watch their every move like they're "coming for you", get all worked up any time the phone rings, etc, etc.
D Money, if you've got $4,000 I'd either be spreading a whole hell of a lot harder than 1-4 or playing much bigger tables than $5. Your hourly win rate is only somewhere around $4 an hour. To have a 13.5% ROR (which would be optimum growth for your bank or Kelly betting) you'd want to play with $10 units. It's hard to find $5 DD on weekend swing shift in Biloxi, although there are a few casinos that always have a few - Treasure Bay being one of them. If you're bound and determined to stay at $5, then by all means, increase your spread to whatever you're comfortable with. To get to a ROR of 13.5%, BJRM says you'd need to increase your spread to 1-20. That's even a bit much for me I think, but I've done it before with an act of being "on tilt" or "on a roll".
In the end it is your money and by all means do what you want. I learned a long time ago to never mess with a person's enjoyment of the game, ploppie or AP. I'd highly recommend buying a copy of JA's BJRM software - worth every penny.
Tal'shak!
Anubis
just one guy. bigplayer's point was that RoR is not meaningful on a small, limited, temporary budget that can be replinished.
Very true. Just was making a point there. And I also agree wholeheartedly with bigplayer on his point also. (I pretty much always agree with what he says, come to think of it.)
So long as you can replenish that bankroll to keep the ROR above your tolerance level, then overall bankroll ROR is irrelevant. However, it is important to note that if you cannot replenish and you are betting say a $25 unit and go on a tremendously bad (-2 SD maybe?) losing streak for a while so that your overall bankroll is sufficiently affected - then your overall ROR must now be based on your new bankroll and not your original bankroll which might require you to drop your betting unit size.
Just a little Bayes Theorem there. I know most know that already, but there are some who make this mistake. I personally always used a 'Hail Mary' bankroll approach until I got to a unit size where I didn't want to bet any higher. I tapped out a few times first, but now the ol' BR is just slowly growing and the overall ROR is pretty low.
DAS . I'm assuming that the Tunica DD game is as bad as it is the northern midwest. Most of the time, up here, they typically cut the deck in half. I just would never play any game with under a 1 - 12 spread.
Just so you know, I computed the ROR on a S 17, double deck, No DAS, No late or early surrender, only double on 9, 10, or 11, and only split once. Pen = 60 % . Basically, your worst-case scenario double deck game. When I determine my ROR, I think about what the worst I could have at any casino and that is what I put into CVCX. When I play on CVBJ, I give myself the worst penetration (66 %). That way you are prepared for the worst.
ranges from poor to very nice depending on the casino and dealer. Poor would be at Grand, Sheraton, and Gold Strike. I'll leave it to your imagination where better than poor might be.
..one reason, being a relative beginner, I come here is to be enlightened by those who have been there. You are certainly correct, I believe it is time to start working on my act and getting my spreads up there a little bit. I will soon be making the jump from red to green, so it will be good practice anyway. Thanks.
D
