Free Forum - 2 hand streak question

Brendan

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Jul 16, 2018, 1:48:45 PM

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I had read that when you have a 2 hand winning streak the odds of receiving 2 wins in a row is the same as losing 2 hands in a row. If that is the case, why cannot you take advantage of this? If you were able to win 50% of the 2 hand streaks, wouldn't that give you an edge? Basically bet more after a win because there is the possibility of winning 2 hands in a row.

I do know that Stanford Won'gs book professional blackjack did a study of million of hands after 1 win the next hand of winning is 43% or 44% win percentage so this tells me that it wouldn't work.

In regards to single hand winning streaks, I know that you have more of these than any other streak win or lose. However, we know that we cannot predict when you will win.

Gustav Shoes

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Jul 16, 2018, 8:44:22 PM

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Think of a coin flip where you pick heads every time. If after a win, you double your bet, you will win/lose that bet 50% of the time. No advantage. In bj, you lose more hands than you win. Wong's 44% sounds about right if I recall. Some of the lost is made up because of blackjacks paying more and you get to double up on some of the better hands that you are dealt. You can get an advantage at bj by keeping track of the cards and betting more when the composition of the remaining cards are in your favor.

OldCootFromVa12168093

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Aug 15, 2018, 11:07:09 AM

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That 43-44% number reflects the occurance of push. The player is going to win about 19 of every 40 DECISIONS, or about 47.5%.

You can't look at the probability of a 2-win run mid-run, only before or (more accurately) after.

Thus, after a win, assuming an even count, you have about a 47.5% chance of winning the next decision.

weezrDASvegas

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Aug 15, 2018, 1:20:34 PM

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I had read that when you have a 2 hand winning streak the odds of receiving 2 wins in a row is the same as losing 2 hands in a row. If that is the case, why cannot you take advantage of this? If you were able to win 50% of the 2 hand streaks, wouldn't that give you an edge? Basically bet more after a win because there is the possibility of winning 2 hands in a row.

I do know that Stanford Won'gs book professional blackjack did a study of million of hands after 1 win the next hand of winning is 43% or 44% win percentage so this tells me that it wouldn't work.

In regards to single hand winning streaks, I know that you have more of these than any other streak win or lose. However, we know that we cannot predict when you will win.

by: Brendan

There is no need for guesswork or simulationn. The blackjack streaks can be calculated by simple formulas.

If u know the probability of da thing u can calculate any streaks; eg how many 2 consecutive blackjack wins. There aint dispute in coin tossing; everybody agrees that the odds to get tails is always ½ say it 0.5 say it 50%. Two consecutive tails is in a pattern like this (they do it a lot in bhaccarat): HTTH. So you expect 64 2-consecutive tails in 1000 tosses.

I think u visited that site with software to calculate the streaks for anything that has a known probability. There many arguments regarding blackjack odds or probabilities. Anyway I go with that less optimistic figure for winning da blackjack game (in real casinos).

The curious thingy you saw on that site is that the number of 2-win is equal to the number of 2-loss for consecutives: 60 in 1000 hands each. You don’t know when u win but u expect to get those 60 (or 6 in 100) consecutive winning hands. If it didn’t happen in a while I should bet higher. I usually do that especially in a new shuffle.

I believe the figures in da image to be very close to da casino experience. Im no longer surprised that da dealer gets longer winning streaks than meself.

Number of consecutive wins/losses streaks in blackjack

OldCootFromVa12168093

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Oct 11, 2018, 4:25:36 PM

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Interesting you should cite a site by one who claims to have proof card counting does not and cannot work.

What's the old saying, "Those who say 'It can't be done,' are really saying 'I don't know how to do it.'"

My recent, profitable stop in Vicksburg is just further confirmation that it DOES work.

Further as to Brendan's question, note that the single most likely event is a run of exactly one win in a row. The second most likely is a run of exactly one loss in a row. Third place is a tie, between runs of exactly two wins or losses in a row.

But it's important how you define a "run." I define a run of exactly one win as a win followed by either a loss or the shuffle. Otherwise, it would be a run of two or more in a row. Similarly, a run of two losses in a row can only be two consecutive losses followed by either a win or the shuffle.

It's the higher probability of an initial win which brings a run of two wins into the third place tie.

Thus, the lower probability of a second consecutive win is what brings the prob of a 2-win run down to a third place tie.

I'm sure this is the basis for those who advocate betting progressions with a 2-1 start. Seems logical, except those progressions don't work any better than any other progression, which is to say NONE of them work.

Gustav Shoes

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Oct 11, 2018, 10:15:01 PM

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Winning on one trip is not proof the card counting works. Is losing on 1 trip, or 3 trips proof that is doesn't work? Congratulations on your win.

OldCootFromVa12168093

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Oct 12, 2018, 1:05:30 PM

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I've been counting cards since 1974 -- back when single decks were dealt down to the last card -- so you just reversed the count when they shuffled and started to deal the discards.

Hence the phrase "further confirmation" is entirely accurate.

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