Hi guys, I have a 10k bankroll and was hoping someone could advise me with a good betting ramp / spread with a fairly low RoR. I figured out my Kelly bet sizes, but from what I have read, that can be quite risky.
I am assuming I should do $5 units. Would $10 be too high a risk? And would it be suicide for me to occasionally play $25 tables with only wonging in at a plus count?
Any advice would be appreciated!
Do you have SD or DD games available? If so, what is the min? How's the penetration and rules?
Do the shoe games near you allow mid-shoe entry? Also, what are the rules and pen?
Personally, I hate Wonging, but I'm guessing that's going to be your best bet, unless you surprise me by telling me you have a good $5 min SD game available.
If you haven't done so already, pick up a copy of Blackjack Attack. There are tables for pretty much every conceivable game, and the calculations assume a $10K bankroll.
I live in the LA area, so I can make it out to Vegas frequently. Those are the tables I am most interested in.
For non Vegas weeks, there are the Indian casinos near LA. Some of the ones I go to include:
$5min, 6 deck, 1.7 cut, h17,ds,ls
$5min, 6 deck, 1.5 cut, s17,ds
10min, 6 deck, 1.3 cut, h17,ds,ls
10min, 1 deck, .6cut, h17,d10
$25min, 2 deck, 1.0 cut, h17, ds, nm
But you will be eaten alive by travel and other expenses playing on a 10k "bankroll," regardless of the venue. A better idea than playing anywhere right now is to get an additional job or work more hours if it pays more, to build a reasonable bankroll. Practice on computer programs at home while building the bankroll to at least $25 to $50k.
If the risk of tapping out isn't of concern to you, go to Reno instead of Las Vegas. Forget the Indian casinos in California. I doubt if the flights to Reno from Los angeles-area airports are much different in price; even if they are, the hourly EV and number of places to play at tiny stakes is far greater on the Reno single decks than in Las Vegas. Also look into flights to Salt Lake City from Los Angeles for play in Wendover. If you have enough time, you can combine a Reno/Wendover trip.
The low minimum shoes with LS are also viable. I started at similar levels but it is a long, long slog. I have graduated from tiny stakes to small stakes and perhaps I'll be able to play moderate stakes in a few years. I am still limited to a $150 maximum bet on shoes w/o LS even today!
Take the Bear's advice and go to Reno. Below $100 they will ignore you and you can get a lot of hours in with a good win rate for tiny stakes.
I am playing Spanish and spreading 15-1 with two hands using an exit strategy. My motto: "No surrender, no action." Other good venues besides Reno or even Nevada but further out.
Is the big edge that not many are aware of the game?
IE, veteran pit crews are aware that card-counters can beat 21. They monitor the game and detect counters.
Spanish 21 is more obscure. I can't imagine their are a ton of skilled counters out there. Can't imagine the pit would know proper strategy or easily detect Advantage players.
I haven't been to Tahoe in a 100 years so what do you think of the games up there? I'm obviously due for a visit and have always considered Lake Tahoe as one of the prettiest places on earth. Certainly should be added to bucket lists. Did the Reno/Wendover road show some time ago and certainly enjoyed the games in both but got the tap in Wendover.
