The solution presents itself. I agree trying to beat the game as if were a quater-deck of penetration or whatever is mostly a waste of time at lower levels of play, for what its worth.
Studiying a CSM in a casino is totally inefficient and the reason is that when you have seen an Ace of hearts in one round and there is again an Ace of hearts in the next round you still don't know whether this was the very same Ace of hearts or one of the five others.
Its obvious that in order to get clear answers you need to be able to mark the cards.
Now listen to what happened in one of my tests:
I filled the machine in ascending order, first all the Aces, than the deuce, the threes and so one.
When I played out the cards I made a peculiar discovery. The cards came out in descending order: first kings, than queens, than jacks and so on. Very often two to three cards of the same kind would follow each other before a card of a lower rank would come. But it never occurred that a king would follow a queen for instance. Once these sequences arrived at the Ace it would start again with a king.These sequences from king to ace would comprise between seven and ten cards.
Now what conclusions can we draw fom all this?
Francis Salmon
Studiying a CSM in a casino is totally inefficient and the reason is that when you have seen an Ace of hearts in one round and there is again an Ace of hearts in the next round you still don't know whether this was the very same Ace of hearts or one of the five others.
Come on now Francis, you are a very smart fellow. You don't need to know that it is the same card. You just need to observe a statistically significant deviation from an average over an extended number of trials.
It will take you longer of course, but getting hold of a csm isn't exactly trivial or inexpensive either.
Now what conclusions can we draw fom all this?
Nice to have independent confirmation, but I think the fact that the lack of reversal of the cards is not exactly a revelation to the ap community. So, you have sequencing/location possibilities.
My tests shows that sequences of more than two cards which will go the same compartment are rather rare since the wheel is continously turning at random. Besides these sequences will come out in reversed order, a direct consequence of the rule "first in last out".
A further conclusion from my test is that compartments must contain between 7 and 10 cards in order to be eligible for ejection.
Francis Salmon
Besides these sequences will come out in reversed order, a direct consequence of the rule "first in last out".
I was dealing with what you mentioned rather than any subsequent stages in the dealing process that may impact the card order.
But the rest of this you know. Any time there isn't equiprobability of any card ending up in the nth position you have exploitable randomness. Having got this far I presume you know how to proceed.
My tests convinced me that reappearing sequences are too rare and too short to be exploitable. Therefore, the latency of reappearence is still the only way to go, even if it's for most games insufficient.
Francis Salmon
The plays aren't mutually exclusive either. AP's can't really survive any more by doing one thing onky.
