Does anyone think they can beat this CSM to the extent it's worth the effort? I think it may be worth it if the side benefits such as points, comps, etc are good.
Would have to have a hell of marketing program. Not saying it's impossible, but the key to getting good marketing offers is structuring your play so that it looks like you're a whale and then not playing anymore. With this situation you have to be an actual whale and give actual play.
There's a card-eating strategy which would give you an advantage in the range of 0.3-0.5% over basic strategy.
You'd have to be playing at the highest level to make this fly to negotiate the best rebates.
Looks like I might be pioneering this myself. For reasons I'm not willing to disclose, I have played 332 hours on this beast so far this year. I am up 1,864 units.
I think at a minimum, if a skilled player sees 16 or more cards on the layout while strolling by, and they amount to a TC of +2 or more, it's dumb on several levels NOT to make a bet on the next hand. If that next round of cards counts up to +2 or higher, we need to bet the next hand based on +4 TC. The question I'm trying to answer for myself is will the next hand (#3) be contaminated with the first set of cards that I first saw when I first started back-counting, especially if I'm on 1st base. I think we can all agree that the machine is not going to continue recirculating and issuing out bad cards to the players.
I will continue to work on this. I will tell all that I am certainly not afraid of this machine. Though, I'm not sure I'm willing to disclose more on an open forum especially if I'm convinced that I'm playing with a significant advantage. Loose lips usually sink ships sooner or later.
Your strategy is basically the discountgambling.net strategy. That will get you even with the house or a 0.1% edge or so. Still not good enough IMO. Backcounting helps your edge but reduces your hands per hour, so will generally not impact your hourly earnings.
If you can exert some control over the effective composition of the hands by spreading to multiple hands and then back to one in positive counts you can do better. Requires a great act and a good understanding of pit psychology.
And, there's no need to be coy about this stuff. No one understands this shit. Unless some big name theorist decided to publish a long comprehensive treatise on the subject most counters will continue to consider discussion of csm advantage play as some kind of heresy.
The CSM has a large vertical carousel with slots for cards. When they take it apart to change cards, I see there are cards in every slot and it looks like from 2 to about 8. That would be 5 cards average per slot. I need now to determine how many slots are between the 1st point of entry and the exit point. I also believe there are about 14 to 18 cards past the exit point sitting in the nose awaiting deal delivery to the players. I'm pretty well convinced that the carousel moves fairly slowly as cards get placed in the slots.
I have noticed many times 6 to 8 aces on a round on the felt to 6 players. A less than average amount of aces seem then to show again for the next 3 hands, then more than average for the 4th, 5th and 6th after the initial siting. This among other elements leads me to believe that it takes a while before cards placed in the back begin to show up again.
Certainly, under proper options and conditions, I would not even attempt to work this machine for profit. For reasons I won't say, I'm just kind of stuck with it and I need to make the best of it.
Even pushing csm strategy to the limits of what is possible you have an insanely long time doubling time. You can chain yourself to the tables because heat isn't an issue, and csm's deal faster than regular bj, but even so I doubt anybody could stand the swings involved with an edge (at best) in the 0.3-0.5% range long-term.
For a high-roller its a bit different. If you are hustling 10% rebates or better the slight advantage you have becomes very significant. Its a multi-million dollar play potentially.
But for a regular Joe it just sucks. There's easier ways to make money, even outside of conventional employment, with much greater satisfaction.
Perhaps in the near future my ship will roll in and I will have a large bank-roll. If the rebates and comps are right, perhaps CSM is something to include in the arsenal. I think we can agree, playing at a CSM has its cammo benefits whether long or short term.
There are always between 10 and 19 cards in the nose of the CSM. As soon as this number drops below 10, one of the 38 compartments of the wheel is emptied. A compartment can contain up to 10 cards but in order to be selected for emptying it needs to have at least 7.
May be you are a bit too optimistic concerning the possible reappearance of cards which have just been reintroduced. During tests
I noticed that cards can return as early as after 14 cards. This is due to the fact that within a compartment the rule is "last in first out".
But if you don't cover too many spots, it's ok to assume that none of the reintroduced cards will reappear on the very next round.
Francis Salmon
While at 1st base, I noticed that soon after all cards placed into the back feeder disappear, the machine rests. That to me, would indicated that it takes some significant time for the fed cards to later come out of the nose.
You have made some pointed statements. Are these fact or theoretical observations? I'm wondering how you learn this stuff. I can't find it on the net.
So is it fact that if a slot has less than 7 cards, it bypasses unloading into the nose?
What do you mean by "during tests"?
It seems like the best situation would be to play on 1 base, get 1 - 2 rounds of high plus counts, then have all other players leave and play 1 hand 1 on 1 with the dealer until the good cards get contaminated with the bad. ??
I need to watch and see if part, all or none of the slots on the bottom have cards in them when they switch out the old cards for 6 new decks.
You have made some pointed statements. Are these fact or theoretical observations? I'm wondering how you learn this stuff. I can't find it on the net.
Nobody can confirm these things because they are the result of my own investigation. Shufflemaster makes a big secret about the way these machines function and the casinos do likewise. I had to pay a lot of money (on the black market) to get hold of such a CSM in order to make my tests.
While at 1st base, I noticed that soon after all cards placed into the back feeder disappear, the machine rests. That to me, would indicated that it takes some significant time for the fed cards to later come out of the nose.
If the cards are reintroduced and completetely worked down before the deal has started there is some danger that one or more of those cards will reappear rightaway.Suppose that there are 10 cards left in the nose. After the first card dealt which reduces the buffer to 9 one compartment containing at least 7 cards will be emptied (you hear a little "shtt").Since the rule is "last in first out" already the 11th card of the deal can be a returner.
Francis Salmon
Yes Francis is right, you could make the same experiances
by watching and listening to the machine.
For example, when you watching the machine at the beginning of the
day , when they insert the cards, or at the end of the day, when
they take out the cards.
There is an opportunity to beat the One-2-Six by sequenzing.
Someone must remember 20 to 30 sequences of cards and always
the new ones, you could forget the elder.
Not more.
E.H.
This stuff can be checked. It is just statistical analysis. Check for repeats and if a certain card isn't available eventually the deviation from the expected number if the card is immediately available for play will show up. For time intervals its just more of the same with partitions for each unit of time-you don't need to wipe out a stopwatch for this, a cadence is fairly accurate.
As Elhombre says there are other ways to beat the machine ("stripping" doesn't really happen), I'm just focusing on counting here.
The machine doesn't shuffle random for my
experiances over 2 years.
E.H.
The casinos have access to these machines and have undoubtedly fully assessed their vulnerability. If they could be beat by shuffle tracking, they would be sent back for revisions. I imagine a counter can make about as much as a fry cook working these full time.
And, there's no need to be coy about this stuff. No one understands this shit. Unless some big name theorist decided to publish a long comprehensive treatise on the subject most counters will continue to consider discussion of csm advantage play as some kind of heresy.
The machine doesn't shuffle random for my
experiances over 2 years.
What does that mean , sequences of cards stay together,
as they are given into the machine.
If there is an empty compartment , many cards that are
together are given into this compartment, listen to the
noise, if the noise isn't constant, the compartments change.
and there is a secret, there is an order how they stay together.
But forget all of counting, the latency is very small, to
small.
E.H.
Your "long comprehensive treatise" was written last decade. I was still in the business back then and I have seen it. We weren't worried then and I don't see any reason for the industry to be worried today. You are right about not being coy. You have to fire big spreads at a 1 to 6 to make it worth your time.
Possibly no spread at all. You understand very little about this.
I never claimed to be a master of card counting a 1 2 6. I'm simply stating the facts from research I have seen. We all know of our South African friend who broke the 126, but since then Shufflemaster has upped their game. Now if you have found an old version of a 126, probably at a Caesars property, then good for you, go to town. If you found some crazy property to give you a 10% rebate on loss, then good for you too. Otherwise, the numbers I've seen on this thread are too far off the mark to give a player enough of an edge to make it worth their time.
