Teasing to Gain the 3 and 7

Sharp Sports Betting is a tool for those interested in winning money at sports betting. The book explains the most common sports bets, what all the numbers mean, and the mathematics behind the numbers.

Suppose teasers are constructed using only teams that, when teased, will pick up both the 3 and the 7. If you consider teasing teams that will pick up all of the 3 and all of the 7 if given six more points, you will be looking at National Football League teams that are listed on the board as favorites of -7.5 to -8.5, and also dogs of +1.5 to +2.5.

Picking up favorites by 3 to 7 points gains about (10 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 6) or 24 percentage points. You pick up a sixth number also, either the 2 or the 8, for another 2 percentage points. Instead of covering the spread 50% of the time like you are expected to do with random picks, teasing for six points that include the 3 and the 7 ought to cover as much as 76% of the time.

In recent data, NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 covered a six-point teased spread 89-35-2 for 72 percent covers. NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 covered a six-point teased spread 35-21-0 for 63 percent covers.

NFL home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 covered a six-point teased spread 87-31-1 for 74 percent covers. NFL visiting dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 covered a six-point teased spread 118-50-0 for 70 percent covers.

The total of the above four categories is 329-137-3 for 71 percent covers. (Pushes are excluded in the calculation of percent covers.)

Six-point teasers that captured both the 3 and the 7 fared considerably better than that, with 76 percent covers.

Summary of Six-Point Teasers

Six-point teasers appear to be worthwhile bets only if two conditions hold:

• You must select teams going off at spreads that allow the teased points to capture 3s and 7s.
• You must get excellent terms, such as +110.

Requirements for a Good Bet

It’s not that difficult to find sportsbooks that charge -120 on 6.5-point teasers. Two-team teasers at -120 require 73.9 percent accuracy to be break-even. If the sportsbook pays +160 on three-team teasers, you need 72.7 percent accuracy to break even.

Tease All for 6.5

Giving each team 6.5 points results in a 68.9 percent chance of covering, a 30.1 percent chance of losing, and a 1.0 chance of pushing. Throwing out the ties meant covering a 6.5-point tease 69.6 percent of the time. That is not good enough to get an edge. So you can’t select random teams for 6.5-point teasing.

Teasing to Gain the 3 and 7

Use the same rules to find teams to tease for 6.5 points as were worthwhile using to tease for six points. You want the teased points to capture the 3 and the 7. That means favorites of -7.5 to -9 and dogs of +1 to +2.5.

The percentage of covering ought to be higher than the rate at which six-pointers cover by the value of half of a 1, 2, 8, or 9, which means you pick up an extra percentage point. Thus 6.5-pointers ought to cover at about one percent higher rate than six-pointers.

Teasing Selected Spreads for 6.5 Points

NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -9 cover a 6.5-point teased spread 125-40-2 for 76 percent covers. NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -9 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 45-27-0 for 63 percent covers.

NFL home dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 121-40-0 for 75 percent covers. NFL visiting dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 156-63-1 for 71 percent covers.

The total of the above four categories is 447-170-3 for 72 percent covers for 6.5-point teasers. That number ignores pushes.

Summary of 6.5-Point Teasers

6.5-point NFL teasers look about as worthwhile as six-point teasers. Be sure that the extra points you pick up by teasing include the 3 and the 7, and find a sportsbook that offers excellent terms.

As a practical matter, the only time to tease for 6.5 points instead of six is when you want to tease a -9 favorite.

This is part of an occasional series of articles.

Excerpted with permission from Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, edited for this format.