I was trying to demonstrate to a friend how progressions don't work, but he had an elaborate chart countering my arguments. His "proof", however, was based on an assumption that playing perfect Basic Strategy would allow the player to win 48.5% of the hands. The way he arrived at this number was by starging with the known House edge in the game (approx. .65%)...this would leave a 49.675% win rate for th player and 50.325% for the House. Because BJ hands actually count as an extra 1/2 win for the player, he accounted for another 2.35% house advantage in the percentage of hands won by the player (4.7% Blackjacks times the 1/2 bonus payout equals 2.35%). The combination is a 3% House edge in hands won (PUSHES are not counted at all). With a 3% edge, the player would win 48.5% of hands, and the house 51.5%. I pointed out that Double Downs and Splits were not included in his calculations, but I have no idea how to account for these in terms of per-hand win percent. Does anyone know what the actual win rate is (in terms of percentage of hands won) that will occur using basic strategy? Thanks in advance for your help...
