... is his/her bet (assuming everyone plays basic strategy). This is simply a foregone result of playing a negative expectation game. So ...
... ISTM (it seems to me) a progressive bet is mandatory for a non-counter to have any chance of walking away a reasonably consistent winner. And don't give me that crap about a flat bet strategy (ala valium betting) being the best for non-counters because flat betting is totally relative (a flat bet can be seen as a sum of progressive bets - If you play $100 flat on every hand you could just as easily bet $25, $50, $75 say, progressively, until a $100 is reached at which point if you are ahead you continue along in your progressive ignorance, if behind you start over to $25). But more than any other factor progressive bets for non-counters is the only way ...
... to detect a hot or cold deck, table, casino, whatever. There's not one player here who does not sense when a deck changes (to hot or cold). A flat bettor will see the change when it is too late to increase, a negative progressive player really doesn't take much notice, so only an increasing progressive player stands a chance of winning consistently (or losing minimally) based on swings of the cards because he's already deep into the winning streak or fully withdrawn into valium play.
ONLY WHEN THE CARDS BEHAVE AS MATHEMATICALLY PREDICTED IS THE MINIMUM HOUSE ADVANTAGE REALIZED (.17% TO .4%). ALL OTHER TIMES YOU ARE RIDING A YO-YO STRING.
CONCLUSION - Positive Progressive betting (for non-counters) is the only way to identify when a deck is currently against you or in your favor. This requires that upon a win, the bet must be increased, reversed if a hand loses. I never ever double up and I prefer reversing bets at a more rapid velocity than I use to increase them, for example:
$25, $30, $35, $50, $100 on the way up followed by $35, $25 on the way down, assuming $25 minimum. You will lose chips rather slowly and win chips very rapidly (loss streaks usually outnumber win streaks).
Is this a winning strategy - NO. YOu must count cards to acquire that edge, but it is a strategy that will always permit you to enjoy the game immensely, sit at a table for a long time (you will often win big or lose small and always get a helluva lot of table play for a given bankroll) and feel that phenomena of the changing deck. Contrary to mathematical models, decks also go cold, decks also go hot totally independant of a current count.
I can generally tell when a deck changes within five hands and I've played istanbul and prague where decks had been altered, believe me you can tell when they have. It is not the number of consecutive losses that gives one a clue, it is the consecutive nature of those losses. Believe me when four consecutive two-card 20's have been trumped by a dealer's two consecutive 20's, one 21 and one bj, you get suspicious, the deck's either gotten damn chilly and you resort to valium play (i.e., flat bets) or you better get the hell out of that place or your playing in Istanbul.
pops
