Hello everyone, I am brand new to this board and fairly new to AP blackjack. I've known how to count for the last couple of years - strictly out of curiosity - and never really put much effort into developing this skill to my advantage; until recently... Over the last few months, I've really immersed myself into AP blackjack and learning more about counting to gain an edge against the house, and entertaining the idea of becoming a weekend warrior/ AP BJ side-hustle.
A quick synopsis of my game, I can play perfect basic strategy and can count, just not well enough to take to a live casino.... I do feel I will be ready to go live soon... hopefully...
In any case, the purpose of this thread is to get your thoughts on a betting system I recently heard about. Now before you throw me into the lions den, I understand betting systems are the best way to lose an entire bankroll. I'm bringing it up here because it's kind of unique but was hoping someone who is a lot better at math than me could put some numbers to the strategy. To be quite honest, I thought about potentially using this system for the short term as a way to "gamble" into a bigger bankroll while work on perfecting my AP. Obviously, I realize it's aggressive. I would be starting with a bankroll I can afford to lose but with a little bit of luck, and positive variance, I could POTENTIALLY build the bankroll big enough to be able to use AP at tables who offer better games. My local casino, the better games (DD, 3:2 BJ, DAS, S17) all have a $25 minimum. At a 1-5 bet spread to start, that's a $12,500 bankroll which I just don't have at the moment..
So here it is...
Quick synopsis: You are basically giving yourself a 4 hand session to be +1 unit. 1 unit is 100x your bankroll. After a win, you increase your bet +1 unit until you've won 3 in a row in which you stay on a 3 unit bet until you lose. After a loss, you double your bet until you've reached 4 straight losses; which in reality happens pretty often. After 4 straight losses, you assess bank roll amount, x 100 and that is your new unit.
For this example, let's assume I am playing a 6 deck shoe, H17, DAS game- $25 min - $1000 max . Starting Bankroll $3k = $30 unit. Repeat last bet after every push.
I assume the risk of ruin for this strategy is pretty aggressive. I was hoping one of our expert/ mathematicians could figure that out pretty easily...
Again, I realize betting systems are a losers game in the long-run.. Essentially I was hoping this would be a more "conservative" (oxymoron?) approach to a bankroll building quick scheme....
I have thick skin so let me have it! :)
Thanks in advance for any insight/ talking me out of stupidity...
A quick synopsis of my game, I can play perfect basic strategy and can count, just not well enough to take to a live casino.... I do feel I will be ready to go live soon... hopefully...
In any case, the purpose of this thread is to get your thoughts on a betting system I recently heard about. Now before you throw me into the lions den, I understand betting systems are the best way to lose an entire bankroll. I'm bringing it up here because it's kind of unique but was hoping someone who is a lot better at math than me could put some numbers to the strategy. To be quite honest, I thought about potentially using this system for the short term as a way to "gamble" into a bigger bankroll while work on perfecting my AP. Obviously, I realize it's aggressive. I would be starting with a bankroll I can afford to lose but with a little bit of luck, and positive variance, I could POTENTIALLY build the bankroll big enough to be able to use AP at tables who offer better games. My local casino, the better games (DD, 3:2 BJ, DAS, S17) all have a $25 minimum. At a 1-5 bet spread to start, that's a $12,500 bankroll which I just don't have at the moment..
So here it is...
Quick synopsis: You are basically giving yourself a 4 hand session to be +1 unit. 1 unit is 100x your bankroll. After a win, you increase your bet +1 unit until you've won 3 in a row in which you stay on a 3 unit bet until you lose. After a loss, you double your bet until you've reached 4 straight losses; which in reality happens pretty often. After 4 straight losses, you assess bank roll amount, x 100 and that is your new unit.
For this example, let's assume I am playing a 6 deck shoe, H17, DAS game- $25 min - $1000 max . Starting Bankroll $3k = $30 unit. Repeat last bet after every push.
- Starting Hand: $30 bet
- Win: $60 bet next hand
- Win: $90 bet next hand
- Win: $90 bet until you lose... keeping in mind 1 unit = bankroll * .100 so increase accordingly
- Win: $90 bet next hand
- Lose: $60 bet next hand
- Win: Back to $30/ 1 unit
- Lose: $120 bet
- Win: Back to $30/ 1 unit
- Lose: $240 bet
- Win: Back to $30 bet/ 1 unit
- Lose: Back to $30 bet/ 1 unit
- Push: Stay at $60 - this will get you back to starting hand amount
- Lose: $120 bet
- Win: Back to $30/ 1 unit
- Lose: $240 bet
- Win: Back to $30/ 1 unit
- Lose: Your bank roll would be at $2,550 which would reduce your unit to $25
- Lose: $120 bet
- Win: $60 bet next hand
I assume the risk of ruin for this strategy is pretty aggressive. I was hoping one of our expert/ mathematicians could figure that out pretty easily...
Again, I realize betting systems are a losers game in the long-run.. Essentially I was hoping this would be a more "conservative" (oxymoron?) approach to a bankroll building quick scheme....
I have thick skin so let me have it! :)
Thanks in advance for any insight/ talking me out of stupidity...
