I learned to count cards over 20 years ago but have rarely done so. The few times I did, I won some but lost a little more. I have gone more than 10 years without stepping foot in a casino but I've been developing, testing and retesting progressions, it's got to be sort of a hobby.
Now I am aware there is no mathematical basis for a progression, but I am not convinced a progression can't be devised to show a profit in the long run. The problem with most, is you either run out of money, or the casino puts a limit on the amount you can bet, so you run out of bets to make. If there was no limit, you could win every time, provided you had sufficient bankroll. The reason why casinos are always profitable is because they have a bigger bankroll than the player.
I have been testing the following progression and am very pleased with the results:
I play basic strategy and use the Oscar's Grind bet method. I start with a $5 unit and have a goal to win 40 units ( $200 ) for a session. I will quit the progression at any time where I am 40 units behind my previous high. For example, if I have won 30 units toward my goal of 40 units, then drop 40 units, I terminate the session with a result of minus 10 units. Thus, winning sessions are always 40 units or a little more, while losing sessions can be and usually are, much lower.
At any point where I lose three consecutive sessions, the next session is played with a $10 unit with a win goal of $400. If I win this session, I revert back to the $5 unit. If I lose the $10 session, I play again at that level and if I lose again, my next session is played with a $15 unit and a win goal of $600. If I win the $15 session, I revert back to $5. If I lose two consecutive sessions at $15 my next session is $25. You continue with this sequence, with the next levels being $35, $50, $75 and $100. You only move to the next highest level after losing two consecutive sessions at the level just below it. ( or 3 consecutive sessions at the $5 level.) When you win a session, you drop two levels. Ex: you win a session with a $25 unit, you revert back to a $10 unit.
My testing has been done at Sage Blackjack and blackjackinfo.com. Thus far,I have completed 107 sessions, or about 19,000 hands. I am up 825 units, or $4,125. The majority of the sessions have been played at the $5 level. Here is the breakdown, 90 sessions at $5.00, 14 sessions at $10.00 and 3 sessions at $15.00. I have yet to go beyond the $15 bet level in the entire test.
My plan is to play 200 sessions and if I'm still going strong, I may start playing for real.
Any comments?
