Winning w/ no count

In the past 1.5 - 2 weeks, I've been on a pretty good roll. I'm in the midwest, so I'm only playing in one favorable casino. But I'm up to about $11,000 from a starting bankroll of $275.

I lost big one night ($3,000), and other than that, every other session (9/10) has been a winner (atleast $600, but more than half were between $1k-2k.)

I don't count. I tip alot.. only cause its been working so far. I'm just going to assume its karma.

Should I be worried about being told I can't play anymore? Should I employ some of the chip-pocketing tips and buy in for more as the session goes on?

Without counting prepare for a big reverse. Your luck cannot hold out
forever. Quit while your ahead.

No. The casino will get its .5 percent advantage over time. Don't worry. :)

I'd suggest you avoid winner-hating casinos for a while, but rest assured, the "streak" will end eventually. Luck can overcome statistics only for a short-term...

It's time you understand that you only won out shear happenstance and maybe some decent play helped along the way. However, you need to STOP now and learn the proper way to keep what you made + how to add to it.

You have won quite a lot which will certainly give you a false sense of security. Make the appropriate changes or give it all back. The choice is yours.

Remember these words: WE TOLD YOU SO!

Thanks everyone.

I have been working on the count a little bit every day.. and I'm able to keep a rough one as the game goes on, but I'm not nearly good enough to play my hands and keep a real count. In time.

I know I've been lucky so far, and I actually just used a large portion of the money to take care of a few things that needed to be done. So atleast I have that off my shoulders.

So after that, I was down to 5k this evening, and I did lose a little bit at the tables.

I actually started playing a couple weeks back with 7 green chips my girlfriend gave me. I've been to the casino 2-3x a day sometimes, and almost every time I was up my original buy-in within 3 hands and left with a nice chunk of change. I'll just keep practicing and playing slow for now,..

I'll be careful. Thanks.

'till you learn what you're up against and how to deal with it. Spend the time much more constructively and learn away from the tables.

I know of a young guy who started playing at 19 years old. His first time out he won 52K in one day. Within the next 24 hours, he gave it all back. Then for the next two years, he was still trying to beat the game his way. All he did was keep loosing. I saw this happen. He often played at a table I was on. He was constantly in a pissed-off mood. He made many errors with basic strategy and was often putting big $ out when my count numbers were totaling in the minus zone.

The tools to learn are available everywhere. Don't play without the right ammo. Beware, is appears you are treading down a path of misconception.

...unless you quit playing now. I am deadly serious about that. I have lost count of the number of the times I've told that to regular gamblers and they've carried on regardless, then come back to me and said "Well you were right, I should have listened...". Well, f*&$ that, it is too late then.

Just once, I would like someone to have the strength of character to understand that they've been lucky and quit with a profit. This is a big moment in your life: make the hard choice now and you can achieve anything, ignore all our advice and carry on regardless and you will regret it forever.

You need to study blackjack for several months before you even think about setting foot in a casino again. Follow the advice of those who post here, buy some decent literature and learn how to count.

Alright.. I'm definitely seeing what you guys are saying. After all, they aren't opening a billion dollar casino every year because people are winning. The only thing is, since my girlfriend "bankrolled me" (hah, 200 dollars).. she often makes me come and play a little bit with her. I can't really tell her no.

I'm not going to be stupid enough to give it all back. If I'm losing, I walk, and thats it. But, I will continue to practice.

No worries though, even if something did happen to the money.. its not even an issue to get more. My GF is beyond loaded, and she's always willing to help me out when it comes to blackjack.

I'm just having fun right now,.. and who knows, maybe my luck'll last a few more sessions.

But please, don't think I'm ignoring your advice. I completely understand the risk.. and hell, the fact that I was able to take care of alot of bills/etc. with the $7,000 I spent yesterday makes it all worthwhile.

I appreciate all of your help, and while I have the dough, I'll drop an order here in at bj21 for alot of literature.

I can't really tell her no.

Yes you can. It's time to teach her some lessons too.

I'm not going to be stupid enough to give it all back. If I'm losing, I walk, and thats it. But, I will continue to practice.

Save your last dollar for a rememberance token.

No worries though, even if something did happen to the money.. its not even an issue to get more. My GF is beyond loaded, and she's always willing to help me out when it comes to blackjack.

Sure is nice the GF is so loaded. But good things will end when it is proven that you can't make the $ grow consistantly. Also, this is the wrong attitude.

I'm just having fun right now,.. and who knows, maybe my luck'll last a few more sessions.

For every action there's a reaction. There is no such thing as luck. It's all just pure math. If you win a few more sessions, you will really think you know more than the pros on this board and then continue until the money goes by by.

But please, don't think I'm ignoring your advice. I completely understand the risk..

You are ignoring our advice if you continue to flail your money in the wind. And you do not completely understand the risk.

and hell, the fact that I was able to take care of alot of bills/etc. with the $7,000 I spent yesterday makes it all worthwhile.,

...only while you're winning.

I appreciate all of your help, and while I have the dough, I'll drop an order here in at bj21 for alot of literature.

You're welcomed, but I still think you're headed for a brutal azzwhippin' if you don't cool your "Lucky Gambler" jets before it's too late.

given the fact that your GF is loaded and wants you to play with her $. But, do you really think that you are going to significantly make it consistanly grow without doing your homework first?

WAKE UP! LEARN FIRST! Then go and be a world class pro traveling the world with your hot babe.

Ryno,

I knew this high roller with a carpenter and entreprenur past.
He was an old man who believed TOTALLY in SYSTEMS. At one time years ago he was up over $240,000 in Vegas. But he was a show off and a thick headed drunk at times, and eventually it went to his head that his system was indestructable.

Oh, he had some gambling savvy! He knew enough about gambling to maintain generally 4 to 5 bankrolls because ocassionally in got sandwiched in lady luck's swings; both good and bad.
I would ***try*** to tell him about counting cards; explained how simple it really was to learn. Told him about Plus-Minus, 5 count, Basic Stadegy and many other things.

HE WOULD NOT HEAR IT!!!!!!!!!!!

He had the attitude that unless one drove a expensive caddilac, lived in a mansion bigger than Elvis's home, that one knew nothing. He said the pit would tell him that counters were rude; as they tried to peek at people's cards. Naturally the pit does not want you to know!!! They want to keep the SHEEP CLIPPERS in their hand; they do not want sophisticated educated players siphoning off their profit with their skill.

He would win heaps and lose eventually lots more. I mean while he was younger experimenting with PURIST BETTING SYSTEM'S that were flawed, and working in Nevada as a carpenter, he would many a time sleep in his front truck seat on the weekend. As he gambled away his check on Friday night, and many times failed to send money to his wife to care for his kids. This is a critical tale repeated over and over by many; could be you Ryno, one day!

Last time he was here in Reno last year, he told me he lost enough in 3 days that he could buy a house!

But he, an old man set in his ways, could not hear even after life's experiences that he DID NOT trully understand the game. He would tell me such idiot remarks that conflicted with BASIC STRADEGY such as "Never Double Down, Split, or never take insurrance!" These he believed to be all house come-ons against the player. The last time he was here a year ago, he may have learned! Because no one has seen this 'fantom high roller' since!

Of Course, we are banking on you listening, and telling us you do not have 'Helen Keller ears and eyes'!

But casinos are built on everyone winning aren't they? ? ? ? ??????

I always did like BlackJack. I gambled for a few years not even knowing about Basic Strategy. It was fun and I was lucky. I thought I had this great plan to walk away from the table every time I was up. I was there a lot and one of the dealers got to know me. She said I should just walk away and never play again. She said losing money was for the rich who never earned it. She said gambling was the tax on being stupid. She said they would get my money sooner or later and she said she could tell I didn�t have it to lose. I was $12,000 up and all the sudden all the tables went cold on me. I walked away $4000 up after almost losing all the hands I played. On my way down from $12,000 many people gave me advice. One guy (over a comp�ed dinner) asked me why I was giving all my winnings back. I told him that I really liked the game and hated to just give it up. He said I should play smarter. He said the simple stuff like always play at a full table so I would lose slower. Start asking for more comps, so I could at least lose less. Then he said I should get real good at basic strategy. He said he hated to see the casino�s always win. That�s when he told me about counting and the books I should get. After reading the first book I started seeing many things I missed before. About high cards being my friend and that over time math beats luck, always, every time. I know that I don�t have as much fun now as I did in the old days, but I do like not losing. I have more losing hands than winning hands. Still, I bet big during my winning hands (high + count) and min during my losing hands (minus count) making real money week after week. It�s like the Matrix asking which pill I want to take. Once you see how it all works, that gamblers will lose and counters will win. Well then there�s no going back to just giving them your money and calling it fun. When I first started counting I thought I would get rich quick, �Wow, counting and luck, this will be too easy!�. Boy was I wrong. Can the game be beat? Yes! Is it easy? No. Is it still fun? Yes, if you think its fun getting your paycheck after working long hr�s for the money. It�s a choice you have to make. But I would say �Go ahead and gamble until you lose it all� That way you�ll know the real value of counting. Plus you can say �Their going to pay for doing this to me!� and you�ll be right!

If you cant learn from them learn from me

I'm 22 and have always been math oriented so I was quickly attracted to gambling

I know baseball exceptionallt well and started betting on baseball online and kicking the crap out of it
Then they added casinos to the sportsbooks- great i though-
I was about 18 and couldnt go to a casino yet but I could play online

I was up about 6,000 form baseball for the year (this was not luck Ive beaten the books for almost 5 years) but baseball season was over and Im greedy

First I played some roulet ( the same game i walk by and literlerly laugh at people for playing now)
A dollar or 2 a spin got hot 25 a spin 50 a spin shit im down 300 bucks- no big deal red for 300- shit black well red cant lose again 600 red- red Im a genius but this game sucks on to bj

I played 10-25 a hand and made 1500 the first night
This was so much easier than grinding out underdogs in baseball
But like i said I am greedy so soon I was betting 100 a hand
And shockingly I lost all of my baseball winnings in a few days
It had to be fixed i figured ( it couldnt possibly be my splitting tens, taking ins. and other such brilliant moves)
I even sent an email to my friends saying how easy it was to beat bj

Fortuantly like I said I am good with numbers and I relaized losing money was dumb (even though I didnt relise why I was losing)
Over the next to years i read about bj and a little bit of card counting and last year a friiend of mine was going to AC and asked if I wanted to go- FUCK YEA

By then I had basic strategy memorized and I told myself "regardless of tonights results your actually losing money by playing so flat bet the min and only keep goign if you learn to count"
I made 4 trips like this, won the first two lost the next two and was up about 50 dollars overall which I used to by Professional BJ, BJ Attack and six decks of cards and began practicing. I practiced for abput 2 hours a day for a few weeks memorized the ILL 18 and went back to the casinos
I flat bet again for two more trips until i could count accurately while holding a conversation ( I remember early on my friend said something to me and I lost count compleltly)

Still I continued to take slow bets and bet 5 if the count sucks and 10 if it was good just trying to learn anf figuring I would break even

So where am I now?

Well since then I played for about 8 months was doing great and looked at my bankroll as a lifetime bank and spread 5-75 and lived off that money for 8 months until I hit a skid and stopped b.c. i needed the money I had left

In the last month I have built up enough money to go back to the casinos shortly to play bj and hold em which Ive also become good ( but not as good as I plan on being) with an extra weapon the halves count

I am always trying to learn and to be honsest I had more fun at first. The novely of the casino atmoshphere had worn off and my firneds don't take my advie and play negative ev games all day long as seem move lose sometimes and think Im full of shit.
If they don't take my advice why will you? I doubt you will but I hope you do- Luck is short term bullshit and If you arent going to count you would have been better of losing that 275 b/c you probably would have quit then

In the past 1.5 - 2 weeks, I've been on a pretty good roll....I'm up to about $11,000 from a starting bankroll of $275. I don't count.

Congratulations on your good luck and on somewhat recognizing the need to learn to play the game. Your percentage gains from your initial bankroll exceeds that of everyone here who earned it through counting (by definition).

I tip alot.. only cause its been working so far. I'm just going to assume its karma.

I would suggest that it's not your system that's working so far, and that your assumption on karma is incorrect. BJ is not some magical, mystical game governed by the supernatural. Rather, it's a game of chance, where the likelihood of specific occurances are functions of laws of statistics and probability. There is no magic or luck...only positive and negative variance.

Should I be worried about being told I can't play anymore?

NO! You should be worried about being invited for more! You can calculate your expected losses to date by taking your average bet, multiplying it by the house advantage (-.41% for the typical midwest 6D game), and multiplying that by the number of hands played. Short-term results will vary greatly, as you've seen, but long-term resutls will definitely move toward the mathematically determined expected loss. The casino knows this, and they know you aren't playing with an advantage, so they'll wait you out. They can afford it, as they will undoubtedly get their money back from you, with interest.

I know I've been lucky so far

You have no idea how lucky you've been so far!

...since my girlfriend "bankrolled me" (hah, 200 dollars).. she often makes me come and play a little bit with her. I can't really tell her no. No worries though, even if something did happen to the money.. its not even an issue to get more. My GF is beyond loaded, and she's always willing to help me out when it comes to blackjack.

Your GF may be "loaded" but you have sufficient money issues that you had to use your profit to pay bills. Your finances are none of my business, but please be aware that you don't have the secret keys to the casino vault. You just got lucky. Now it's time to quit until you learn how to play. Who knows... your girlfriend might respect that you wish to quit until you learn how to win. It will show initiative. You know she won't respect you when you lose your profit as well as some of her money.

I'm not going to be stupid enough to give it all back. If I'm losing, I walk, and thats it. But, I will continue to practice.

How many millions have said that before you? Animals are trained by giving the animal a reward for a specific action. Eventually, a partial reward is sufficient to get the animal to continue the action in expectation of a reward. Finally, the animal requires no reward...just the memory of past rewards and HOPE for a future on is sufficient. Casinos train ploppies the same way. Look at them next time you are there.

Anyway, you didn't ask for advice on your play, and you won't believe that you don't possess some mystical method of defeating the casinos at games that favor them until you lose. Too bad it works that way, but that's how it is. To answer your question, no, you should not rathole your chips. The casino knows you are just lucky. If you rathole, they make think you are playing with an advantage that they failed to note.

I'm not going to be stupid enough to give it all back. If I'm losing, I walk, and thats it.

Sorry, but I doubt that. Since you think you have the secret to the riches of the casino, I'd expect you to chase your losses, convinced that you could win it back. Then, when you win one session for every two you lose, I'd expect you to think you're back on track and to continue chasing it. I'd expect you to get money from your "loaded" girlfriend to chase it further, as you already said you would.

I'd expect you to start looking for anything "different" than when you were winning on which to blame the losses, such as the "greedy" guy at third base who split his 9s against a 6. And, if somehow you did get back to your all-time high, I'd expect you to continue playing, despite telling yourself that you were going to quit as soon as you got your money back. After all, your "game" is back on and the streak is going, right? The cycle will continuye and, eventually, you may lose your winnings, with interest, plus the loaded girlfriend. That's how it works.

Also, one correction from my previous post. You can calculate your expected losses to date by taking your average bet, multiplying it by the house advantage (-.41% for the typical midwest 6D game), and multiplying that by the number of hands played and adding total tips. You may think it's nice to tip generously, and I tip as well (not generously, though, by any means), but wait and see how much they reimburse you when you lose.

I once took my brother with me to play blackjack and explained to him for hours the theory of counting cards. We had a strategy for some small time team play. After about 15 minutes the little bastard quit looking at my signals and just started betting like he wanted (mostly progression and hunch bets). I will never try to talk anyone into becoming a counter again. I'm convinced most people have to learn their own lessons.

A few notes.

on winning and losing. Seems that it is far easier to remember the wins than the losses. My wife is very conservative (and doesn't count either). As a result she slowly loses money but enjoys playing, which is the reason she does it. Fine by me. A couple we go places with likes to gamble as well. The female (no names here to protect the guilty) travels a lot and always arranges the trips to pass through a casino town in Mississippi or in New Orleans. She always tells my wife about winning $1000 here, $2000 there, and to me it didn't make any sense as she doesn't play much BJ, mostly 3-card poker and other high-house-advantage games. A few months back we went to the Beau Rivage for a three-night weekend. First night I did poorly, even in good counts things went for the dealer. Not uncommon. Down about $400 for that night. Next day, not as bad but not so good, lost another $300. Now down $800. That same night our friends (the female specifically) hit a straight flush in 3-card poker with a $100 bet on the pairs plus. Paid her $4000. She started with a $3000 BR for the weekend.

As we were checking out (Beau has a 11am checkout I think) we were standing around talking about whether to go somewhere and play some more and try for a comped lunch, or should we just head back. My wife started the discussion with "How did you do last night? When I passed by looked like you were doing pretty well." I said let me check. I started with $500 in my wallet, got another $500 from the safe after the first night, and I now had just under $1500 in my wallet. I said "looks like I am up almost $500 for the trip, after the first two days of disaster..." She said "good, I've lost about $300 so 'we' are up about $200 for the trip (love that 'we' stuff) :)

Our friends had the same discussion and the female said "I'm up about $5000 for the trip myself. I started with $3000 so I have about $8000 I think. Her husband said "check that, that is a lot of money to have in your purse." She started counting and got to $900 and ran out of anything to count. Her husband said "I didn't think you could be up that much, you lost $2000 playing 3-card poker last night then you went to the dollar slots and played a couple of hours... Bottom line, she had not won $5000. She had lost a little over $2000. I told my wife later "See, I told you there was no way she was winning that much, the casino edge doesn't just go "poof" when she enters the door."

My wife felt much better.

I've seen this "remember the wins, forget the losses" before. I can't count the number of people that live close to the coast that talk about going down to "the boats" and winning night after night. yet when we go together they slowly lose (IE we play BJ, and they don't even play BS reasonably well, giving the house an edge that would grind anyone down.

If you don't get past this kind of selective memory, you are doomed to deposit lots of money into casino coffers over the years, and get very little back in the process. But until you realize you are losing, you have a problem.

I personally keep accurate records. I don't count hands played. I don't even count hours played as it is too much trouble when part of the time is spent standing behind a player, back-counting, waiting for a good count to enter the game. But I can tell you each and every night how much I won or lost, and approximate playing time. I don't guess as to whether I am winning or losing. I sometimes feel pretty stupid after playing for 3+ hours and my wife asks how did you do and I say "I won $30." :) Of course that is better than saying "I lost $500" but both happen.

If you play without an advantage, you _will_ lose. It might take time. And way out at 1000 sigma you could win a progressive jackpot and be rich for life. But _most_ will be ground down.

We didn't mean to run you off. Give us a report. What are you doing? We'll be here when you want to talk again.