The usual win, lose, push stats looks something like this (given for 1 deck): 43.8 win, 47.94 lose, 8.26 push. If one was never to double (play out you usual double as a hard hand and play out the splits as if the 'no double after split rule applied', how would the percentages be changed? I expect more wins and pushes and less loses, but how much more? If you could provide stats for 6 decks I would greatly appreciate.Regards, Picasso.
How about you tell us what you plan to do with this always useless answer??
Don
"If it worries you"
It doesn't worry me, but if I'm unwittingly getting into a stupid progression discussion, I don't want any part of it. And, it belongs on a different page.
This question is rarely asked for any other reason, because, frankly, the answer serves no other purpose I can think of.
Don
Don,
I am working on a system in which the objective is to lessen the loses and not one to maximize the gains and to do so I need numbers to work on. I agree with you that discussing progressions belongs to another page and I also do not wish to discuss them here either. Discussing stats and numbers, for whatever reasons, cannot be forbidden? If you know the answers, please kindly share them with us or e-mail them to me privately if you feel these numbers do not belong on this discussion group. Regards, Picasso.
Picasso, First let me remind you that the purpose of doubling is to increase the amount of money one has on the table when you have an advantage and will most likely not hit your hand again. Not doubling may allow you to win more hands but it will result in a best case scenario of your winning less money with the worst case being that you are an overall loser.
According to the chart on page 117 in Griffin's "The Theory of Blackjack" (paperback, Sixth Edition Indexed) the house advantage increases by 0.73 using an infinite deck with no doubling on 11 (which I believe means no doubling at all). No doubling on 10 (which I believe means doubling on 11 only) will increase the house's edge by 0.45. Add this to the normal house advantage at the normal six deck game of somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.50 and you will have to overcome a house advantage of around 1.00 - 1.28 or even greater. This would make for a very difficult, if not impossible, game to win at. If the figures for each double are cumulative, rather than inclusive of all lower value hands as I've surmised, the odds against you would be insurmountable for all practical purposes.
Perhaps you should investigate just not doubling on nines and/or soft hands (house advantages of 0.076 and 0.083 respectively) to reduce your risk. I wish that I could be of more help to you but I'm really not much of a math person and don't own a sim. Good luck with your research and hit 'em hard. The Side
is by playing fewer hands (since you are a non-counter), playing slower, or betting less. These ratios will not give you any predictive value. Neither the sequences nor the number of wins, losses, or pushes that you've gotten will give you any clue.
Here is a much easier way to minimize your losses. Count -1 when big cards are dealt and +1 when small cards are dealt. Leave the shoe when the count starts to get real negative. It is very easy.
From Picasso
The usual win, lose, push stats looks something like this (given for 1 deck): 43.8 win, 47.94 lose, 8.26 push. If one was never to double (play out you usual double as a hard hand and play out the splits as if the 'no double after split rule applied', how would the percentages be changed? I expect more wins and pushes and less loses, but how much more? If you could provide stats for 6 decks I would greatly appreciate.Regards, Picasso.
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Myself
From the above figures, one could incorrectly assume that it is normal to lose at a rate of---47.94 - 43.8 = 4.14%...A single deck game with the proper rules, is an exactly even game...I don't think you understand this game as completely as you think...Becuase the Casino takes your money when you bust, without risking anything, they have a built-in advantage of approx. 6.48%.
2.33% of this advantage is overcome because they pay you 3 to 2 for a blackjack...The remainder must be overcome by standing or hitting, doubling or splitting, when it is mathematically right to do so...Your question indicates that you do not understand this aspect of the game...By refusing to double down or split, you are actually telling the Casino---"thanks for the opportunity to reduce your built in advantage but I am not interested...I would rather lose my money faster and go home."
--will [something has gone wrong with my computer and the delete button is not functioning...I cannot eliminate any of my mistakes.]0ian
Still waiting for an answer to the win, lose, push (top) question. Anyone? Regards, Picasso.
hello Picasso
My above submission entitled---A Ruined Picasso---answered your question but of course you don't want to refute that answer...You only want some more people to go over to your progression site and let you show how intelligent you are.
Try some other site where the people will listen to anything except the truth...John Patricks website would provide a great pool of idiots for your ideas.
Search for a thread started by 'Mix it Up -- 23 July 01, 5:05 p.m.'
You might find something there.
I dont recall you answering my question nor do I sponsor the progression page and I also dont need an audience. Your help would have been appreciated. Regards, Picasso.
hello Picassso
I answered your question in my submission entitled---A ruined Picasso.
Thinking that you can lose less often by refusing to double in some situations, dictates that you do not understand the basics of this game...Either you double down correctly when it is mathematically right to do so, or you fail to reduce or overcome [by card counting] the built-in advantage to the Casino, which is derived from the simple fact that if both the player and the Casino bust, the player loses his money.
If you do not understand this answer, then you should study the game more completely...I would recommend that you purchase Don Schlesinger's excellent book called---BLACKJACK ATTACK.
so what you are looking for is a more smooth downward slope rather than one that bounces up and down? Don't ever double. You will have a bigger disadvantage but will be able to watch your money disappear more steadily. You won't sometimes lose twice as much, or worse, sometimes win a double down.
"I would recommend that you purchase Don Schlesinger's excellent book called---BLACKJACK ATTACK."
Then, I would recommend that he actually read it! :-)
Don
'I answered your question in my submission entitled-A ruined Picasso.'
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So how does the win, lose, push percentages change if one was to play out all doubles as a hard hand and play the splits as if 'the no double after split rule applied'? Producing the numbers would be answering the question, anything else is just rhetoric. Regards, Picasso.
Picasso, I can understand your having an interest in different things and if I owned a sim program I would run one for you. I'm sorry but unfortunately I don't. Perhaps you should post this question down on the progressions page and maybe someone there will run a sim for you.
The other option is to purchase your own sim program such as CVSim http://www.qfit.com/cvsim.htm so you may examine this and any other strategy changes you might envision. I received a sample of CVSim when I purchased Casino Verite and it does provide you with win/lose/push percentages. Good luck with your research. Hit 'em hard, The Side
Are you trying to work out playing strategies to minimize the probability of losing
or to maximize the probability of winning, rather than maximize EV? If so, I can generate those strategies for you (although the pair splitting will probably be wrong) if you specify the number of decks and house rules.
Don is probably wondering why I bothered to include support for this in my program. The answer: to answer questions about correct play in tournament situations. If you are in a tournament and your prize will be the same if you win or push, then you should play to minimize your probability of losing. If you *must* win a bet, and pushing is not good enough, then you should play to maximize your probability of winning. These strategies are both different than basic strategy.
Not so useless after all....
I can't remember the exact breakdown of wins, pushes and losses, because your original post is not available any longer...Let's say that it is 42.5 Wins, 8 Pushes and 49.5 losses.
In every 100 games, you can expect to receive 5 blackjacks...At a bonus of 50%, that is worth 2.5 wins...Standing and hitting properly, is worth 2.45...If you split properly, that is worth 0.50%...That means that you have eliminated 5.45 units, of the Casino's advantage...To eliminate the remainder of the Casino's advantage, you must double down correctly...Such a strategy, is worth 1.73%...By failing to do so, instead of losing at 0.50% against 6 decks with perfect basic strategy, you will lose at 0.50 + 1.73 = 2.23%.
Obviously you are not interested in this simple truth...You want some kind of answer which will authenticate some kind of progession theory that you feel that you have miraculously discovered...No further answer from me will be forthcoming to you on this subject.
