Win Hand Pct. with Basic Strategy

I was trying to demonstrate to a friend how progressions don't work, but he had an elaborate chart countering my arguments. His "proof", however, was based on an assumption that playing perfect Basic Strategy would allow the player to win 48.5% of the hands. The way he arrived at this number was by starging with the known House edge in the game (approx. .65%)...this would leave a 49.675% win rate for th player and 50.325% for the House. Because BJ hands actually count as an extra 1/2 win for the player, he accounted for another 2.35% house advantage in the percentage of hands won by the player (4.7% Blackjacks times the 1/2 bonus payout equals 2.35%). The combination is a 3% House edge in hands won (PUSHES are not counted at all). With a 3% edge, the player would win 48.5% of hands, and the house 51.5%. I pointed out that Double Downs and Splits were not included in his calculations, but I have no idea how to account for these in terms of per-hand win percent. Does anyone know what the actual win rate is (in terms of percentage of hands won) that will occur using basic strategy? Thanks in advance for your help...

You likely won't get many responses on this since most people don't concern themselves with those numbers. I've been doing some simulations lately so I added one more.

Here is what I found for a basic strategy player playing 6 deck, by himself, DAS,DOA,no ace resplit, split to 4 hands, aces get 1 card, 70 % pen,

I believe these numbers are correct.
I simulated them with Casino Verite using CVDATA.
250 million rounds.

43.53 % won
47.90 % lost
8.56 % tied

These numbers include everything like bj's, splits, etc.

Hands Hands Hands Hands
Total Won Lost Tied
256,967,968 111,861,648 -123,094,400 22,011,916

Units Units Advantage Advantage

Bet Won/Lost Percent Std.Dev.
282,964,400 -1,097,108 -0.388% 0.007

Here is where I got the numbers from. I copied and pasted these numbers from the report.

What program did you use to run these simulations. This is exactly the info I wanted! Thanks again..

The hands won is basically 47.5% excluding pushes. This can vary slightly depending on the composition of the remaining cards in the shoe being either favorable or unfavorable to the player. But even then it usually will only vary by a few tenths of a percent unless under extreme conditions. So for a good basic strategy player this is the number you're playing at as far as wins and losses is concerned.

Fyi, I've seen this number published in a couple of reputable BJ books, and there are also sims and tables with all kinds of this type of information in them on bjstats.com and bjmath.com that show hands won right around 47.5% mark.

These #'s are very important when you are trying to work out your edge for what is called a 'sticky bonus' For instance, if we lose we will lose $100, but if we win, we will win either $300 or $450 for a blackjack.

(100 trials)
43.53 % won = 13,059 (using 300 only, not 450)
47.90 % lost = 4,790
8.56 % tied = 2,568 in free action

82.69% advantage.

A player will win more hands in the long run by not doubling hands, but NOT more money. You get to take another card if you do not double hands like A,2 and get a second, third, fourth try to make a pat hand. This modification to BS is often used when people play progressions since all they ever want to do is win the next hand.