Why you will never profit from card-counting...

among other sources for the correct statistics. 100 hands per hour is not unusual (OK AC on a weekend does not apply).

You use the base bet as the average bet ignoring the effect of bet spreads. If a TC of +2 OR HIGHER occurs 25% of the time (your stat), then the average would a minimum of 125% of the base bet (assuming a 1-2 spread, which is completely unrealistic). PBJ and other books have the correct stats for TC frequency and a reasonable bet spread WILL result in an average bet that is 2X the base bet.

Finally, 10 hours per week is very reasonable if you live in an area that has alot of choices. This is only 2 hours a day, 5 days a week. I personally average 15 hours a week or so.

Like I said below, if you have decided that card counting is not right for you, that is fine. If you want to try and convince others that it does not make sense for them, then at least make sure that you are using correct numbers.

Gamblers try to take a few bucks and turn it into a lot, quickly, without much work.

Advantage players try to use a big bankroll to make a few bucks over time, with much patience and hard work.

Top players use six figure bankrolls, travel, and play many hours, trying to move $20-40k/hr across the table with a 0.7 to 0.9% advantage.

Anyone who can make it playing bj could be successful at something else.

When people ask me re bj I tell them that I can teach them to beat bj in the kitchen in a week, but to learn to beat the casinos will take as long, be as difficult, and be as expensive as a year in grad school

The game can be beat but it ain't easy.

psybj

RM, you're really dwelling on the idea that a counter using a powerful system with a full matrix of indices spend a lot of time practicing away from the tables and a lot of time silently working his butt off calculating at the tables.

That really isn't the case once you've been at this awhile. Practicing just isn't necessary after the first few years of counting although I find that the playing strategy matrix comes in handy when I sometimes use it like counting sheep to get to sleep at night. Even then, I usually nod off with indicies I rarely see... the main indicies are no different than recalling your home phone number.

Similarly, playing the game gets like driving a car after awhile and conversation can easily be interleaved with expert play. The only exception is when the table conversation starts spewing out numbers of some sort... THAT can trip you up if you don't put down a little overt concentration.

When I had less than a year of experience counting cards, I would have put some value to your assumptions but from my current perspective, I'd have to say that your comments truly reflect those of someone who really doesn't know much about the realities of long-term advantage play.

Interesting banter, however... you're welcome to contribute your negative EV at all my favorite tables.

Spok

As I said in my original post, a counter playing $5 blackjack will roughly bet, on avg, $5 per hand

I don't know how you define "$5 blackjack," but your original post said $5 table. The count doesn't have to go "through the roof" for a counter to bet more than the minimum. The average will depend on the counter's bankroll and tolerance for risk, but it will be nothing like $5. Not even close. In fact, it will depend on the maximum bet more than the minimum, as well as the counters ramp, whether he Wongs, etc.

ETF

Personally, I have a much smaller BR (about $5 K), play to a larger ror (10%), and have an EV of around $25 - $30 per hour at my available games.

I'm not taking RM's side, but an EV of $25 - $30 per hour with a BR of $5k is very hard to attain, unless you're doing something beyond counting -- even with a ROR of 10%.

Unless I am misinterpreting the info in BJA (which is entirely possible), the games that I play meet these EV guidelines. Of course, I make it a point to only play the best games around. For example, a DD, H17, DAS game with 78/104 pen and a 1-8 spread requires a BR of 445 units to achieve a 10% ROR (using the stats in chapter 10 of BJA). For a $5 K BR, this translates into betting units of a little over $10. BJA gives the EV/100 hands for this game at 3.05 units, which is just over $30 (the high end of my range above). This type of game is available out there if you know where to look and have a good act, etc. You can also get $23.80 with a 70/104 pen game. And this is just DD. SD is better.

Please do let me know if I am misinterpreting the BJA information. Also, let me know if I am interpreting the charts correctly, but you just disagree with Don's info. It is always nice to get another perspective.

I did the calculations and came up with about the same numbers. I'm used to pounding out $15 an hour at 6d or 2d with 50% pen, here in the MidWest. Guess I should move to Vegas!

ETF

IMHO. I was on a temporary assignment in the Chicago area for work and saw them first hand. The games out West are much better (no, not just Nevada).

especially in an open forum.

I should point out that the game in my above example is intended to ilustrate the overall conceptual point and probably only exists in LV if at all. These are NOT the game conditions of an actual game that I am personally aware of.

The point was that there are good games if you know where to look, and that some areas of the world are better than others when it comes to the quality of BJ games.

Tour Guide, what are your thoughts on the question that I posted on the Vegas BJ page labeled "Clarification Requested". It is on point to your comment here.

Thanks

As a matter of fact, I just purchased a book on Texas Hold'em and am considering Poker as a hobby as well as. Sorry I called you a Bozo. (Although when I was a child I had a lot of affection for Bozo.)