Why play BJ?

I was hoping to make a few thousand a month ($100 or so a day), playing full-time (or as full-time as possible). But after reading Blackjack Attack and Wong's books, I'd need a huuuge bankroll to do this (or face a very high risk of ruin with a smaller bankroll).

Is there somthing I'm missing? It seems that playing long-term, the returns are really lousy, even if one plays perfect strategy and can bet perfectly. In the real world, it's even worse.

Or is it that I'd never be able to play enough hands get the long-term statistical returns; so in my lifetime I'd either be on a winning streak (so to speak), and think myself a great player, or be constantly at a loss, and questioning my sanity.

Another big challenge is being able to play without getting barred.

You must be able to strike a balance between winning and losing. I know that many counters would be welcomed with open arms in most Casinos as long as they lose a large number of their max bets while the dealer's hand gets the 20's and blackjacks and the counter is stuck with hard 16 though 19. If the counter is not careful of his ROR (risk or ruin), he may exhaust a large bankroll very rapidly before the variance should ultimately get in his favor.

A good strategy would be to practice with low dollar tables and the smallest winning spread like 1:5 in a $10 DD game. Even with negative variance in the beginning, a 5K bankroll would give you about 95% probability of doubling your money with a $50 max bet and operating at 1/2 Kelly (100 Max bet bank). Starting with a bank less than 2K and spreads as low as 1:5, I was able to reach an ATH of about 60K this year and survive 2 drops of 100 Max bets each; the first one was an 8K drop after the first month and the second one was a 21K drop after the 3rd month. Even with a much larger bank roll than what I started with, I still practice downshifting to a much smaller Max bet while experiencing negative variance.

by treating BJ CC as "gambling"... you thought $100 a day to be low... against what BR? You wouldn't expect making $30,000 with $30,000 "investment" from stock market, why you thought using $30,000 making $30,000 a year from BJ to be too low?

One of the secrets to depending on winning play to sustain yourself is playing high quality games only. If some one tells you "Yeah..but that 6 decker with decent rules and 2 decks cut off is still playable", ignore the well intended but nevertheless bad advice, wonging aside. Fluctuation vs. minimal win rate. Get a good blackjack program and analyze a game's win rate yourself. Never play if a game isn't particularly good in some fashion. Midwest 4 deckers always were a personal favorite years back. CBJN is a must. It's usually correct.

I was looking at time vs income... for a year's time imvestment and zero dollars it's pretty easy to clear $30,000 ($12.50/hr) working at an office job. For BJ, even with a $30,000 bankroll, I'd still need to put in a lot of time, and still there is a risk I'd lose the whole $30K.

to winning, is to be prepared to lose. That is (IMHO) the most difficult lesson to learn. You have to survive those horrible negative swings, mentally and financially, in order to have even a chance of succeeding.

I read all the time about "new counters" that go out and just smash the casino over and over, winning 11 of every 12 visits, etc. And I read through it knowing that either (a) they have been out on the positive edge of variance and will get a rude awakening one day or (b) they are imaginary players and are "legends in their own minds"... :)

But that is a key point, and a _very_ difficult thing to grasp... I once knew a pretty talented guy that became a very good counter before going to a casino, and he did ok for 6 months or so but next time I saw him, he had "sworn off blackjack because that counting stuff really doesn't work as the books claim..."

"When you lose, expect it." I suppose that means when you win, you are surprised? Somehow, I'm just not very good at it. But at least I know I am an amateur act.

Lawrence Revere, PLAYING BLACKJACK AS A BUSINESS, p.103, 1991 edition. Probably many others have said it as well, but at least Revere was an AP when he said it, back in the early 70's (He died in 1977).

AB

Thanks for the numbers. But to clear $200K a year, that's nearly $1000/day average... figure some losing sessions and some days one will be winning $5K or more... how do you keep the casinos from noticing the constant drain from their cages?

1. Hit and Run
I played 50 countries, over 600 casinos in 14 years... there are 3,400 more to go...
2. Trackings
You have longer life with trackings.
3. Big Player
Using replacable BPs.

BJ advanbtage plays:
1. Low BR
Low BR, low return... then over bet...
2. High Travelling costs
No economy of scale, especially for internationaql plays.
3. Lack of skills
Most APs only cc.
Hourly rates of BJ are about $1 for every $1K BR... most CCs use less than $10K for lacking of confidence... low return... frustration... over betting... failings...
Good Luck in breaking the failing cycle.

thanks for the advice and words of encouragement. The grim reality is always better to hear than the hype.

it was Arnold. He has a good article "you won't win" that anyone starting out ought to read. I learned this the hard way myself. I practiced. I could count 6 decks at 15 seconds a deck or less. I did not make errors in practice. I played at home. And when I went to the casino I got my clock cleaned the first time out. And, in fact, it happened most of the time. But being a computer person and having run my own simulations to "test this stuff out under what I considered reasonable conditions" I was confident in the math, even if I didn't quite understand the statistics behind variance at the time.

It is hard to explain how small our "edge" is in counting. It is _far_ harder to explain how wide that "bell curve" is that shows our EV. For example, before you counted, did you ever play in a casino on multiple times, playing perfect basic strategy, and clean their clocks? And almost think B/S was enough to let you win? Until the house edge caught up and ground your winnings away? I know way too many BJ players (non-counters) that actually think they are winning, because they remember the big wins, and forget the more frequent (but smaller, usually) losses. And we all know they are playing a losing game. And that "feature" is what keeps the casinos in business. If you lost 50 cents for every $100 bet you placed, nobody would play that game very long. But if they can lull you into believing that you are winning, or you can win, then they have a long-term customer base. Somehow human psychology lets us sit at a table with 5 other players, and one wins big, and we think "this game can be beaten (not by counting)" even though we actually noticed that 4 lost money and only one won. But we don't think "80% losers, 20% winners, this sucks." We tend to think "that winner could be me..." or "I can do that..." and away we go.

I've learned to play with "plastic" when playing BJ. I don't think about that green chip being 25 bucks, it is just a "n-unit" process which helps me keep my sanity. Of course, I can't play at anything but $5/$10 tables with my wife, as the blue marks on my arm from her "grip" can be painful because she _does_ equate "green" = "$20 bill + $5 bill"... :)

The typical gambler can instantly answer the question "what was your biggest win at the BJ table?" But beyond that, their recollection is very vague. The typical counter probably also remembers that "biggest win" but for me, I also remember those big whippings I've endured as well.

That's what mostly impresses me about the "pro" players. Not their counting skills, as I'd match my counting skill against anyone. But their ability to weather the storm on those negative swings is impressive, particularly when I know that there "negative swings" are huge compared to mine, since our betting levels are far different. Just the same as I am impressed by the rank-and-file pro football players, because I know what they endure every week, and then they bounce back for the next week... Tough life that requires a form of toughness (football or card counting) that most people will never fully understand or appreciate...

hello bjtraveller,

can you please tell me what you mean by #2, "trackings"? thanks,

jefftrader