Why do you guys play blackjack?

The desiribility of an investment(blackjack) is judge by its ev+risk.

EV is easy to understand,most likely outcome. The important thing to consider here is time. In bj time equals number of hands.

Before taking on any investment or playing any game, one needs to consider WHEN one plans to "cash in". Time affects not only strategy but also risk, ever heard of "shares are for the longrun".

Progressions are short run strategies. Counting longrun. But without considering when to quit, one is as good as another. Counting can be negative ev if one plays only 1 hand. Because the ev is more than offset by the cash paid to food to fuel your brain, especially during learning process. Also the huge variance on 1hand.

We have many limited resources, time, energy, etc.

Relative to all endeavors, payoffs may be a combination of pleasure or profit.

Determine what the goal is + the time allow. There is more to invest than money.

Part 2 was about financial statistics. Concept of risk and utility. Never published in any blackjack literature but it got busted on sight because the person who busted it THOUGHT it was voodoo without anybody commenting on it.

your posts mention progressions. Because of this they get busted, since the PB's feel they should be moved to the progression page.
I don't think posts about risk and utility relating to blackjack would get busted.

then it would seem that any post which touts card counting should be removed from the progressions page ... tit for tat.

If you hadn't posted so much crap under the handle #####..., we'd have more tolerance for you. You already have a history of "busts for cause," as the PB guidelines put it, which means you get less leeway.

pb9

has always been what I do. I catch alot of flack for it, but I do it with success. I flat bet with my minimum wager unil count goes high then I increase my bet 4 fold (I am only a black chip player)and I start a progression system predicated on the count. I personally find that I rarly lose multiple hands when count is in my favor. Can it happen? yes of course it can and it does. But, overall I hear very little from people who tie their progressions into a count. People should not knock it until they try it.

Smokey

I flat bet in negative counts and increase with each negative win by 1 unit or half of last bet, going back to flat with each loss in negative count. When the count goes positive I bet strictly with the count, I have found this to be very potent as I do not sit with flat bets when you win all those hands in neg counts.

If you only bet black chips do you have some great wins doing what you describe?

Joe

method you describe does in fact prevent huge losses by avoiding several consecutive max-bet losers (because you don't go up when you lose) your method also does not get the full ev of consecutive max bet wins (because you didn't get the money on the table).

It has been proven many many times on this site and in reputable literature that the ev lost by not getting the money on the table at the right time is much greater than the money saved by avoiding consecutive losses by using a positive progression. Progressions are seductive...but they don't change a thing and when you're counting they simply either keep you from getting the money on the table when you must do it...OR...if a negative progression...it gets more money on the table when you should be betting less.

Using a progression on disadvantage situations means that you are boosting your negative ev. This can completely annihilate your overall advantage.
Running into a series of wins with minimum bets is the fate of every counter. Take it easy.

Francis Salmon

but I think he meant to increase on losses and reduce after wins.
This will result in enormous losses in the event of bad streaks and modest gains with good streaks.
However, his system will have positive effects when losses and wins are alternating which means that he will certainly increase the number of winning sessions.
I share your view on progressions in general although I think it's less harmful in advantage situations than otherwise.

Francis Salmon

That's right... if you aren't shilling for wong or that crappy KO system or a book on "How to cheat at blackjack and get your ass kicked by a casino security guard"... then you're busted.

VOODOO Babe miss spelled most of the words in the last half of that message. You Know who bitched to the W.M. Then I (ROTFLMAO) posted
that she did it just for him. So he took down all 3 or maybe the W.M.
did it. VOODOO babe we have over schooled resident that was bit
by a spelling BEE just as he reached PEW-BURT-TEE, he never got over
it and you sort of stepped on something. More Rolling.
.

It is your post and you can do with it what you want, but some on this board take down their OWN posts when they are succesfully answered, or the answers leave them in a bad light.

I recovered one such answering post of this sort last week.

It is awfully FCS to do this, self bust when you cannot get the pb'ers to do it for you.

I refuse to do this, and often, in the long run, it shows just how FCS some can be.

thanks for the interest and concern.

I have often been caught flat betting in a long win streak in neg. counts, much to my dismay.

I have used the system I spoke of, on and off, to test it and have found that in the real game it has served me very well. I believe it also confuses the pit as I use no camo in the pos. counts and just go all out.

I do understand what you are saying and thanks again.

Joe.

and being as such it is better defined in terms of quality rather than quantity.

But what you are saying, or implying by your remarks, is that considering its rewards, cardcounting may infact turn out to be a wasted ( quantity ) of time; or at least time that may be better spent speculating on more rewarding and less risky investments.

The problem is, there is no prescribed formula for the quality of time and the pleasure one derives from one's use of it ( emphasis on the word...one. ) And these matters of quality are always better left for the INDIVIDUAL to decide anyways, and never to his investment advisor or accountant. If this were not so, how drab life would become, Voodoo Babe.

And if this were not so there would be a lot less dead bodies on the slopes of Mt Everest than there are today...none of which, BTW, measured his footsteps in terms of debits or credits, or dollars and cents...Nor would there be others who would dare to soar beyond the heights of Everest even, to a point where time stands still and the earth takes upon the *quality* of some heaven...or so it seems...to those who are rewarded in ways that cannot be measured in mere dollars and cents.

" Why do you guys guys play blackjack? " -- Why, for no other reason,
Voodoo Babe, than because-----It...Is...There-----Ya get it?

Your name Voodoo-babe is a misnomer. You seem to have more wisdom than is found in Voodoo. Whence are you from and where you going baby?
You tickle my mind...

more detail what I do. First of all I am a KO player. I only play in the pit (which in AC is about the only 6 deck game you can find). I only flat bet. The minimum bet at the tables I play is $100.00. I start my coun at -20. When the count gets to 0 or +1 I go to a $300 bet. If I lose and the count stays at +1 or better I go to $400. If I lose that bet and the count goes to or stays the same or gets better I go to an $900.00. If I WIN any of these 3 hands and the count is still the same or better I go back to my $300 bet. If in any of these sequences, the count goes back to beyond -1 I go back to my $100 bet. As long as that count is below -1 I am always a flat bet $100 player. I have found that when I have an excellent count, that I rarly lose multiple hands in a row. However, it does happen at times and that is when i'm having a bad night. So during these good count stretches, I have a $533 average bet. My risk of ruin is always 100K which is the credit line I work with. Also there are a couple of other problems. In AC you can't go into a casino and play for big numbers and do it with cash. They want ID and they fill out currency reports for the IRS. So I don't play in cognito, they know who I am and the progression tied into the counts acts as serious camo. I was sitting at a table 3 weeks ago and a woman next to me had up a $300 bet with no chips left in front of her. She received a double down card and went into her purse and put up another $300 to doublw. The pit boss walked up and said "miss, for you put up any more money, I need your name address SS# and picture ID". She said never mind and left. After she left, I asked the pit boss what that was about and he said, she had already made change of $9900 dollars and was now coming in under the currency law. So I have lines in every hotel and they know me well. What I have always found, is that if I flat bet at $100 ad just increase my bet to $500 when the count goes in my favor, that I lost more frequently. Because as Mr. Schlessinger says, you don't have a bad day flat bettng. It's what happens when your at your maximum bet. So this being the case I rather use the progressions when i'm at my max bet. I win much more frequently this way, when i'm having a bad day my losses are the same and when i'm having a good day my wins are less, however I find (which is most important)that I have many many more winning sessions this way. Progressions tied into the count is something no one discusses, but I think it deserves more air time.