When the count stays high

Hi,

With the Hi-Lo system, when the 'good' cards are coming out, the count is supposed to be dropping, right? If the count stays high, say, from 1 deck into the shoe all the way to the end, doesn't that mean the cards that have been dealt are actually kind of 'balanced'? (relatively more tens and aces are near the end of the shoe and are never dealt)

Only when the good cards actually come out does the player win a bit more than lose, right?
(of course, it's just statistically speaking.... you may very well lose a lot when you get many face cards)

I'm not doubting the premise of card counting, I know it works. I'm just wondering if there's a way to assess the situation afterwards. For example, following the simple rationale above, then after a shoe which tc stayed hi all the way, then it's actually pretty normal that you still lose a bit more than win.

Meanwhile, you would expect to truly win a bit more only when the count went high and then dropped gradually.

Is this reasonable?

Thank you very much.

p.s.
This is my first time posting here. I know this issue probably has been discussed many times somewhere. Pardon me for repeating this beginner's question.

I'm not sure why you say that, Flash. I think the question is a fair one for a newcomer, and, in fact, everything that he states is absolutely correct.

With what do you take exception?

Don

If the running count rises and you bet and it continues to rise you are essentially betting into a disadvantage and using an incorrect strategy. The True Count is just a means of predicting which direction the Running Count is going to move. The higher the True Count the more force is being exerted on the Running Count to move back towards zero.

Unfortunately, like predicting the weather, sometimes the shoe decides to prove the True Count's prediction wrong and that is often when you get crushed as the cut card comes out with an insanely high running count.

CharlieMosby,

First, let's make sure we're on the same page here. Typically, when we discuss the HiLo count, the "count" is the True Count (TC), which we calculate by dividing the Running Count (RC) by the number of decks remaining in the shoe.

Thus, if we're playing a 6D game and in the first deck we see 10 big cards (Aces & X's), 12 neutral cards (7's, 8's, and 9's), and 30 small cards (2's through 6's), then at that point the RC is

RC = 10*(-1) + 12*(0) + 30*(+1) = +20

The TC, though is found by dividing the RC by the remaining decks. In this case, the shoe still has 5 decks, so the TC at this point is

TC = +20/5 = +4.

That's a pretty good TC, so we'd probably put out a max bet (or two!).

The remaining five decks now contain 110 bigs, 60 neutrals, and 90 smalls. (Recall that 5 decks would normall contain 100 bigs, 60 neutrals, and 100 smalls.)

Let's say that the second deck in our game comes out exactly in proportion to the actual remaining shoe. in that case, those 52 cards will contain 110/5 = 22 bigs, 60/5 = 12 neutrals, and 90/5 = 18 smalls. What is the RC after this second deck has been played?

RC = +20 + 22*(-1) + 12*(0) + 18*(+1) = +16

So, as you stated, the "count" did indeed fall, since in this second deck we saw 4 more bigs than smalls.

On the other hand, what is the new TC? The RC is now +16, but the number of undealt decks is 4, so

T = +16/4 = +4.

Huh??? That's the same as we saw after the first deck was dealt. As I said above, we'd probably still be putting out our max bet at this point.

Of course, both of these statements are true:

1. The RC fell during the second deck, and
2. The TC remained the same.

What's I've done here is provide an example of the "True Count Theorem", which says that while the RC tends to zero, the TC tends to remain unchanged.

So, did we actually have an advantage during the second deck? Yes, we did: in those 52 cards, we say 4 more bigs than smalls, which corresponds to an increase of roughly 2% in our edge.

Just for fun, what would have happened if the second deck had come out with the "usual" distribution of bigs, neutrals, and smalls? Well, we would have seen 20 bigs, 12 neutrals, and 20 smalls, so the RC would have remained unchanged at +20. However, the TC would have increased to +20/4 = +5, indicating that we expect an even larger advantage during the remaining 4 decks.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

When the count drops suddenly at the beginning you were playing with an advantage yet did not know it.

Yes, I see now. It's indeed a bit unfortunate if the RC keeps rising all the way to the end. Thanks for the weather analogy.

Thank you very much for the assuring and clear explanation! I've heard about the TC theorem but haven't really looked at it so far.

I guess I do need to start thinking of things more solidly with numbers instead of just reasoning in a murky way.

I'm really flattered that my naive post got responded from multiple highly respected players so quickly. I learned something indeed from each. Thank you guys!