in basic strategy, if the dealer has a 9, 10, or Ace? Assume multiple deck, dealer hits s17, double after split, and surrender.
Personally, I would be inclined to surrender vs 10, and split vs 9 or A.
Would love to have the advise of more experienced and knowledgable BJers. THANKS.
Split, split, split and re-split. Double, double and double.
is correct play according to all the numbers I've seen regarding multiple deck play. Surrender is correct for 10,6 or 9,7 vs dealer 9 or 10 or A hands but not for 8,8 vs 10 hands. (I think John Patrick says to surrender (or hit if surrender is not available) the 8,8, but he isn't recognized as a leading authority).
Take a look at this info:
www.blackjackinfo.com/cgi-bin/bjbse.cgi?game=lv6
nfm
I see I was influenced by Frank Scoblete's book, Best Black Jack. He says to surrender 8s vs a 10 only, split the rest (p. 18).
Have to say that makes sense to me (so what, eh?), but, as you point out, most disagree.
simulations using millions of hands what the best overall strategy is. Authors that differ are usually going by their "gut feel" of instinct, which is not always correct, even for experienced players.
Here is another excellent website that answers your original question, you will see that it agrees with the first website I listed in previous email. The guy behind this website below is a regular contributor here, so you know he stands behind his info:
www.thewizardofodds.com/game/bj4deck.html
Be sure to look around on both websites, there is a lot of info, including a good overall discussion of blackjack game with tips.
nm
John Patrick says to surrender (or hit if surrender is not available) the 8,8, but he isn't recognized as a leading authority
Not only is he not recognized as a leading authority, he is recognized as a complete snake-oil salesman. His advice is meritless, any plays which he suggests that happen to be correct are so strictly due to coincidence.
The ultimate statement about John Patrick: He claims his system is designed to "reduce the swings" a blackjack player faces, yet analysis revealed that his system leads to higher swings than correct basic strategy, simply because of all the lost EV.
I know it's tempting to want to surrender. Full kudos to you for being willing to do "the unmanly surrender" thing. However, if you split 88 v T, you will lose less than 25 cents on the dollar on each (IE lose less than 50 cents on the dollar combined). If you surrender, you lose 50 cents on the dollar. The choice is an obvious one.
M.
First, Look to your left under the red CBJN. A link called BJ School...don't be insulted, lots to learn there!
Second, spend some time on BJmath.com, a wealth of additional information. For your convenience, and as a bonus, I've attached the link.
If you really take the game seriously, join Green Chip, it's cheap and the knowledge you gain will stay with you a long time.
Chance favors the prepared mind
Louis Pasteur
Regards,
Wildcard
numbers at hand, but I agree that John Patrick's advice on blackjack is not any good. He sure seems to be prosperous and highly thought of by some segments of the population. But so was John Getti I guess. 8^)
I wish you would pick up my tab on that one over the last 35 years.
It's been a real big loser.
was that keeping the 8's together vs a dealer 10 is a loser hand in most cases, whether you hit or stand with it. By splitting you have a good chance of getting at least one winning hand so you end up with a push overall, which is better than losing. And when you get to double the 8 (like if you get a 3 after splitting) it gets even better for you.
Like I just said, splitting 88 v T causes you to lose ALMOST 50% of your initial bet!!
The reason you split it is because surrendering it costs you EXACTLY 50% of your initial bet (which is more), and hitting or standing both cost you MORE than 50% of your initial bet.
By multiple deck, I assume you mean 4 or more. 88 v 9 or T, you split, of course. With h17 no DAS, you surrender v A with 2 decks or more, and with h16 DAS you surrender with 3 decks or more. Source: Griffin's Theory of Blackjack p. 178.
This also agrees with Cacarulo's expectation tables on bjmath, but appears to conflict (for 2d h17 DAS only) with the BS chart, also on bjmath. I suspect the table has a typo. We'll get it straightened out in a day or two, I'm sure.
ETF
Now that you mention it, has anyone sat down and figured out what kind of edge one gives up when one uses his conservative basic strategy? While I don't necessarily agree with his methods, I do like some of his thinking, but I'd really like to see a comparison. For instance, he says that we should take even money; how much in dollars do we expect to lose with that play and how long would it take for it to make a difference? He says not to split A's vs 'Power Cards' i.e. 9, 10, A. What kind of difference is there in dollars between correct BS and JP's BS? Plus his other conservative changes? (in case anyone needs it, I have a copy of his BS around here somewhere, I just don't have the computer knowledge to be able to do a side by side comparison).
I know computer simulations have shown what the best BS is, but it's also been shown that sometimes, the best play is only minutely better. For example, BS says to hit a 16 vs dealer 10 (if Surrender is not an option), but the correct play is so borderline that if your 16 consists of a 4 or 5, you should stand. Is the differnce in some of his strategies that close too?
I wish I had the exact number, but I believe following Patrick's advice adds approximately 1.5-2% to the house edge, which is anywhere from tripling to pentupling it.
As mentioned, the real irony is that his "conservative strategy" actually has higher standard deviation because of all the lost EV, not to mention his hair-brained five-splitting stuff.
As an example, if you have AA v A on the first hand of a 6 deck, S17 game, and the dealer does not have a natural, if you split, you will win an amount equal to about 12.7% of your initial bet. If you just hit, you actually LOSE an amount equal to approximately 2.2% of your initial bet. That's nearly a 15% swing! So, with a $10 bet, not splitting is like throwing $1.50 away. Against a ten, this figure is almost $2.50.
M.
does not seem to include the many many times you will lose both
bets on the split. The loss of one unit beats HELL out of losing
two units, and it happens far more often than YOU are willing to admit.
My "explanation" most certainly includes the times you split the aces and lose both hands. It includes EVERY POSSIBLE outcome. It multiplies the result of each outcome by the likelyhood of each outcome and adds up the result.
If you can really prove me wrong, I suggest you stop wasting your time here and go to Geneva to get your Peace Prize which you would surely win for revolutionizing our understanding of probability.
M.
Was performed by former regular contributor and all-round good bloke Grinder at:
A second CA expert has confirmed that you should not surrender 2d h17 DAS 88 v A. Correct play there is to split.
Important also to note you should never surrender 88 v A with S17.
Summary:
88 v 9 => split
88 v T => split
88 v A:
S17 => split
h17 no DAS => surrender with 2 decks or more, otherwise split
h17 DAS => surrender with 3 decks or more, otherwise split
