What is your opinion regarding BS deviation

Somebody tried to feed me this a few years back, I didn't buy into it. However I am surprised to the number of players who seem to play this way.

Sitting at last base and the dealer has a 10 showing, the player may have a low 12 through to 16. Basically only two specific cards are going to help you hit either 20 or 21. You have more chance of NOT getting the card (for the non-counters).

Therefore rather than risk the bust, stand hope the dealer doesn't hit the 10 value card, rather gets a low card and then a 10 value card forcing the bust.

I'm sick and tired of people who don't have a clue about this game occupying the last box making these kind of moves, so I usually try and aim to take last box, however I am get peeved at the number of times I bust hitting a 14~16 against the dealers face up 10.

A good rule of thumb is to assume the dealer has a ten in the hole. With 12-16 it's better to hit and fail trying than to chicken out and stand. The only time you would stand is if you're counting cards and you know there is an excess of high cards remaining in the pack. Then you would stand on 16 and possibly 15 versus a dealer ten. Remember that many situations in blackjack are losers no matter what you do. Trust the book and you'll lose less money. Also don't worry about what the other players do because half the time they will help you and half the time they will hurt you. It's you against the house and the other players are just along for the ride.

Quote:
"A good rule of thumb is to assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole".

Many ploppies teach this rule to other new players and it does a lot of harm -- making them all ploppies. Assuming this is what keeps them from hitting 12 vs. 2 or 3, from doubling with 11 vs. 10, from splitting 8/8 vs. 10, convinces them to take even money, talks many of them into doubling with 7 or 8 vs. a 5 or 6,etc, etc. Far too vague a guideline for responsible play.

Just a rule of thumb and definitely not a rule. When I was learning basic strategy it made more sense to me if I figured the dealer for a ten in the hole, especially the hard hitting and standing tables. You can't hit 17 because the chance of you busting is too great, so you stand and hope for the best. You hit 12 vs. 2 or 3 because if the dealer has 12 or 13, or anything else, he may still make a good hand. In this case take a hit and hopefully your hand improves.

I think Steve_123 knows basic strategy and was questioning all those times he busted just to have the dealer bust behind him. He's forgetting all the times he hit 12 vs. 8, caught a 4, hit again and caught a 5 for 21 etc. My advice is to never deviate from basic strategy unless you're counting cards. If thinking the dealer has a ten in the hole helps someone learn or carry out basic strategy, that was my intention.

I used to assume the dealer will be dealt a 10, I see your point. Fact is there is more chance the card isn't a 10. I never deviate from basic strategy. I have played against a CSM for the last few nights (this is the only game available at the moment), I use it for practising my counting.

I used to assume the dealer will be dealt a 10, I see your point. Fact is there is more chance the card isn't a 10.

Correct, more "other" cards in the deck than Tens; however, basic strategy has never professed to "assume" there IS a Ten in the hole...neither should you! Basic strategy takes into consideration many other variables that "add" to the dealer making a pat hand. For instance, dealer may have a 7 up. Are we assuming she has 17? Not BS...it assumes she may have an Ace, deuce or trey...in addition to other cards (Tens) all of which will "strengthen" her hand. Since she then "hits", she has an additional chance of beating your "stiff".

Don't question BS...billions and billions of hands don't lie. In the long run if you do question it and play on the basis there are more "other" cards in the deck than Tens, you will get bit by your foolishness.

Regards,
PM

As often happens here, some people take things too literally. I agree with dcb's explanation, so I won't repeat it. If you don't assume the dealer has a 10, you might as well just keep hitting until you bust or you get 21 because you have no idea what the dealer has. Assuming the dealer has a ten means you hit your 14 against a ten ( I didn't write 15 or 16 since someone would say sometimes you don't hit a 15 or 6 vs. 10) but you don't hit 14 vs. 6.

No matter what your rule is, you both came to the same conclusion (which I agree with): trust and follow basic strategy (with index deviations) because the math has been done for all of us.

I am a little bewildered by your answer. I see what you're saying, but I believe you are wrong when you say that basic strategy assumes the hole card is a ten. That is simply not true.

Basic strategy is also taking into consideration every other card in the deck to come to the conclusion that it does. You even acknowledge this with your statement. "trust and follow basic strategy (with index deviations) because the math has been done for all of us. " That math my friend, includes all variations besides tens.

I will agree it "appears" that basic strategy would assume a ten in the hole because of the way we play the hands. But fact is though, it doesn't.

Regards,
PM

What should you do with 10/10 when the dealer shows a 3, 4, 5 or 6?
Suppose you hold 4/3 against a 4, 5 or 6.
How about A/9 against a 3, 4, 5 or 6?
What about your 10/7 against an 8?

The correct basic strategy for double exposure blackjack, where you know the dealer's other card is a 10 would be to split the 10's, double the 4/3, double the A/9 and hit the 10/7. The list goes on.

Clearly, proper basic strategy for regular blackjack does not assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole. In fact, about 70% of the time, she will have some other card!

Of course, most games are NOT double exposure, but your examples clearly show that BS does NOT assume a ten in the hole...now, the answer to what you should do with T/T against 6...split, of course! :)

Regards,
PM

There's almost 70% chance that the hole card will be something other than a 10 value card,period.