What is the player's expectation on dealer's 12?

What is the player's expectation on dealer's 12?

I am playing a no hole card game.
Sometimes I know the coming next card from the shoe
so I can choose to hit that card or give it to the dealer

Should I hit hard 15 vs 9 when the next card is 3?
and many other cases.

I have expectations on dealer's Ace to Ten (from
Griffin's and Braun's book).
What are those on dealer's soft 12 to soft 16 and
hard 12 to hard 16?

Thanks

Interesting question

"Should I hit hard 15 vs 9 when the next card is 3?"

This, of course, is different from hole-card play in the sense that you have a choice of taking the next card for your hand or leaving it for the dealer. If you take the three, you stand on 18 vs. the dealer's 9 and lose about 18.5%. So, you win about 41% of the hands and lose about 59%.

If the dealer hits his 12, with your standing on 15, you win only when the dealer breaks. He will break with a ten about 4/13 of the time, but that's only 30.7%. He would need to break an additional 10+% of the time through multiple hits to make giving him the 3 the superior play.

This looks close, because he will draw an ace through 4 another 4/13 of the time and then bust that hand with a ten (or sometimes lower) MORE than 4/13 of the time, and we're closing in on the additional breaks needed!

So, I'd guess that leaving the 3 for the dealer would be slightly better.

But, I may be wrong.

Don

Dealer Probabilities

I just di a quick combinatorial computation, of dealers results with a 9-3. (I forgot to remove the cards for the player 15.) This is from 6 decks, with S17.

Break   48.427  

17	10.374  

18	10.353  

19	10.375  

20	10.384  

21	10.087   

As you can see, dealer breaks almost half the time. The EV for standing against the 12 is 2(.48427)-1 = .9685-1 = -3.1416. Looks like leaving for the dealer is much better.

I did this starting with a complete 6 deck shoe, analyzing the "Basic Strategy" for this play. For these types of problems, it would probably make more sense to analyze a Counters Basic Strategy, by starting with a slightly rich deck. I suspect this would make standing even better.

Five times more or just 15 percent

Dealer showing 9 ends up with:
17 - .1206
18 - .1176
19 - .3510
20 - .1204
21 - .0610
bust- .2294

Your EV if you take the 3 and stand on eighteen = (12.06+22.94)-(35.1=12.04+6.1) = -18.24
As per MathProf EV of -3.14 when one stands on dealer's 12 you would lose (unimaginable) five times more by taking the 3, or you would lose only measly $1.51 more on a $10 bet ;-)

Good luck to all,
Susan

Agree

15 vs 9,3

---------

Standing  =   -3.14592900280588%

Hitting   =  -35.37848481447068%

Sincerely,
Cacarulo

Next card is 3

With all due respect, the next card was a trey, so the player would have total of 18.
S.

Re: Next card is 3

With all due respect, the next card was a trey, so the player would have total of 18.

You're right, I've just analyzed what happens if the player leaves the 3 to the dealer. Here the ev is -3.14592900280588%.
Now, if the player takes the 3 for himself then he will have a total of 18 against the dealer 9. The ev would be then -18.35480274463763%.

Sincerely,
Cacarulo

Of COURSE leaving the 3 is better..

.. who on earth would want to take the dealer's bust card?

And you call yourself an expert! :)

M.

You have this thing in control...

You are now ready to make it big. I guess what you had been missing was this detail and now you have this one under control.

Silly me! :-) (nt)

This is my type of game.

Highly exploitable ! you are going about this the wrong way.
Please email me.
how often do you get the next card?

Key cards

Is this where key cards come into play?