Vegas on CNN

Watching the story on LV on CNN.  Really is sad.  Wasn't long ago when there was a thread about using a mask for cover.  Don said wait a week and all the casinos would be closed.  Yes.  

Hey Mav, hope all is well.Vegas is dead in the water like the rest of the country. Rumblings on the Strip, some local's hotels and casinos and in Carson City about trying to reopen on a limited basis with many demands on both visitors and businesses.

Personally, I can't see how it would be financially feasable. What they are calling the "The New World" is not conducive to a pleasant vacation experience, which is all Las Vegas has to sell. Conventions by their very nature are a non-starter. The legal exposure is infinite.

Not a pretty picture, but until they come up with a vaccine, this is what we have to live with.

Stay safe,
Jay Cobbson


 

All phony, and about the money. Now watch, by the time this is over Caesar's and MGM are going to end up owning all those little properties that were unable to ride it out.

What's phony and about the money?

All the shutdown stuff. Nothing logical to justify it. But people who have reserves are going to rake like they've never raked before by the end of it at the expense of everyone else.

Notice what's going on in Las Vegas. Mayor says open everything up. But she gets her grease from the little guys, the mayor isn't worth greasing to the big corporate casinos. They are taken care of at the state level because the state controls Gaming. So you can expect the city to be shut down for as long as it takes to bankrupt all the small casinos and other establishments and get them off their real estate.

I imagine you're entitled to your very cynical viewpoint.  You certainly aren't alone with your aberrational thinking.  I imagine there's no chance this is all about saving lives, is there?

Don

Lol. So it's all a conspiracy to let the big casinos gobble up little ones?  The big casinos are behind it all, even though they've lost billions of dollars?  Seems pretty wacky to me...

For it to be all about saving lives, none of it can be about corruption and cronyism.

Are we going to believe that, that all of a sudden for the first time in human history politicians have abandoned all corruption and cronyism, especially when such a ripe opportunity has dropped in their laps?

I'll believe that right after I believe the casino is happy when I win and the pit boss is my friend!

Maybe you live in a different state from NY.  Here, the governor is all about saving lives.  Haven't heard a political comment from him in two months.

Don

As AP's we may be the most qualified people in the world to understand what is going on. We are all very familiar with:

1. Statistical and mathematical deception.
2. Institutional corruption.
3. Hidden motivations and connections.
4. Recognizing effective vs. ineffective strategies.
5. The readiness of the general public to be deceived.

We also work in a very germy environment, surrounded by people of all kinds and some of whom are only a few days away from being in the epicenters of these communicable disease epidemics. Sickness is not going to stop a compulsive gambler from going to the casino and you have surely sat next to people at the table with dangerous influenza. And most of us are fanatical about washing our hands at the casino, which is the only thing proven to reduce the risk of transmission of these things, just like effect of removal is the only thing proven to predict your advantage in a straight game of blackjack. Social distancing, closing everything, wearing masks are the equivalent of progressions and streaks and "flow of the cards," things that "everyone knows" but have nothing to back them up. And just as losses at the table are inevitable even when playing with an advantage, there may be no way to get protection from coronavirus other than being infected with coronavirus, and yes there will always be a calculable risk of ruin. Sorry about that.

But we also know which of the blackjack strategies is going to be adhered to by most of the public and that no one is ever going to convince them otherwise. Politicians know this too and given a choice between appearing to be "doing something," and telling everyone "Wash your hands, stay away if you're sick, avoid the sick (the equivalent of walking away from a crooked game), and live your life as normal," we know which one they are going to choose. Doesn't matter if they are blue or red.

I understand that there are people who are more vulnerable than I am, just like there are people who have smaller bankrolls. We also know the folly of both overbetting and underbetting your bankroll. But that's your bankroll and only you know what it is, and unless they are funding me no one gets to make that decision for me. Analyzed objectively the risk is very minimal, lower than many things we do all the time, and I would expect to be far more likely to die in a car crash on the way to a casino than to die of anything I catch at the casino.

On the corruption issue I do not believe there is any politician who puts our interests first. They and those who bankroll them will come first, always. They also are not experiencing the shutdown the same way we are. I have not yet seen any of these guys on TV without a haircut. So when I hear them say they are doing this because they care about us I believe that as much as I believe the pit supervisor and the ploppies when they tell me a new sidebet that has appeared on the layout is a good bet. Sure it's a good bet, but for the house and for a few of the enlightened, and if it's not someone screwed up.
 

One thing wrong with your anology is that how you bet your bankroll or play the game affects only you and the casino.  Going out into the public while sick has an effect on other innocent people.  

That's true, and if you are sick you should not go around other people. But what if you're not sick, should the government close everything down, quarantine people at large because someone might be sick?

If we were to do that consistently, we would have to close everything all the time. How would you like to sit at the table with someone who has swine flu? You surely have. There is a nonzero chance the chips you just grabbed were just lost by someone who is carrying leprosy. You know a lot of casino patrons have just come from countries where these diseases are endemic and someone might have it but the obligation has to be on you to avoid the environment if you fear it. The alternative is the state we are in now being permanent because we will never be rid of communicable diseases and the people who carry them.

A greater fear for me is a historical one, and the many instances in history of segregation, ethnic cleansing, and human extermination being advanced by popular beliefs about some category of persons being responsible for epidemics. We're never going to be rid of demographic conflict either but adding irrational fears of disease to the mix create an environment where those conflicts can have much more serious consequences.

Look to New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo-he is doing it right. I really wish he were sitting in the Oval Office!

"Not a pretty picture, but until they come up with a vaccine, this is what we have to live with."

Hey Bjay:

I hear you.  With 2 heart attacks and a posterior stroke under my belt, you can bet I won't be getting out.  My health is pretty good so not pushing my luck. 

We lived through the golden days of vegas already so not missing it as much.  Still I have one convention I like to attend in LV and I do enjoy the poker rooms.

I would guess the required influx of people needed for the gaming business will make LV  harder to open than most.  The theory is test, trace, quarantine and then lockdown when the R0 goes above 1.  I don't see how that works in LV.  For me, it is going to be shelter in place till we get a vaccine.  Too bad.  I retire this year.  At least my business allows me to 100% work from my home office.

My daughter lives in NY so kudos to Cuomo.

Best,
Maverick
 

Well said. Agree 100%.  

At present, even if the tables paid 2-1, I still would not be seen in LV.  Until I see a marked reduction in COVID cases, I'm hesitant to go into any large venue.  My personal schedule has been curtailed for the next few months because of the disease, and I'm happy to just stay at home and be safe.  

Any AP worth his salt knows that this is negative EV and as such, avoids the game entirely.

JMO, 
drumz1

drumz1,

I'm glad to hear you're doing well and are staying safe at home in these crazy, unsettled times.

Stay healthy, buddy!

Dog Hand

Here we go.  Interview with Tony Rodio regarding opening Caeser's.  The part I liked was when he shows Erin the 3 chairs per blackjack table.  She says that doesn't look like 6 feet.  He responds that its close.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/us/las-vegas-caesars-coronavirus/index.html

It is really nice to see some  of the old posters in a thread here. Almost like old times..  Glad to see that you're doing well Maverick after your medical problems. Stay  safe
 
 The casino's close to my home has submitted plans to reopen.

Nice to hear from you as well.  Watching the discussion about airlines now.  It is a brave new world.