I would appreciate any information on the topic of variance (at least I think that's the topic!), both short term and longer term. I am trying to determine a suitable bankroll for my betting style.(And the simpler the math, the better.)
While I have a fair to middling appreciation of the benefits of staying as close to true Kelly wagering as possible, like many players I am more inclined to bet a fairly standard unit and spread until there is a noticeable change in my overall bankroll (say, 20%) and then adjust my standard unit accordingly.
If I have a 1% long-term advantage (and that is probably optimistic given my skill level), can someone tell me the chances of winning at a rate of only 48% over 100 hands; 200 hands; 500 hands; 1,000 hands; 5,000 hands; 10,000 hands? What about a 45% win rate over the same number of hands? What about a 40% win rate?
Also, what are the chances of a 48%, 45% and 40% win rate over the same dispersion of hands if my skill level provides only a .5% long-term advantage?
Many thanks in advance. I know this is probably a "baby question" for those with a decent math background, but it will be very helpful to this beginner.
Lotstolearn