Using only Two indexes will work?

I've been experimenting by using only two indexes playing 6:5 single deck game and it seems to work for me so far.
Using the 10-Count as follows: 16 vs. T and 12 vs. 2 and 3 Hit if negative, Stand if positive. Get Insurance is count >=+4
I know, the game I play, Single Deck 6:5, very horrible setup but I'm managing to win over a very long period of time with a spread of 5:1. I'm playing in this game for over 3 years now on average of about 20 hours per weekend. How you guys would try to improve short of finding a better game? This game is just 5 minutes from where I live. So taking that in consideration how should I improve my game?

M

Maria,

You failed to mention a few aspects of the game to allow for a complete sim. I assumed you play heads-up and get 7 rounds per deck. I also assumed that the rules are SD, H17, DA2, DAS, 6:5. If these assumptions are in error, please post the correct information and I'll rerun the sim.

I used CVCX to sim the above-mentioned game, using a 10-count running count system with tags of -1 for all X's, and +1 for everything else. I assumed your system is like this, since you mentioned taking insurance at +4. Again, if I am incorrect, please let me know and I'll make the necessary corrections.

The only index plays are those you mentioned: take insurance at +4, and stand on 16 vs. X, 12 vs. 2, and 12 vs. 3 at RC>=0. Otherwise, I used basic strategy.

With a 5:1 spread, CVCX shows the optimal betting to be 1 unit at RC<=+11, and 5 units at RC>=+12. This, however, is not sufficient to make the overall game +EV: your Initial Bet Advantage is -0.259%. Even if you get 9 rounds heads-up (good luck finding THAT game), you're still in -EV territory with a 5:1 spread.

If you increase your spread to 10:1 (with 7 rounds heads-up), then you're in +EV territory: IBA = +0.458%. You'll place your 10-unit bet roughly one-sixth of the rounds.

I know you said you didn't want a suggestion to find a better game... but, really, find a better game ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Well, thank you for your math analysis. I know the game sucks but this game is just 5 minutes from my house. I don't even have to drive on a freeway to get there. The best next game would be in Vegas for me. I live in CA. Well, I agree, it may be luck but still I am winning regardless of the bad rule of 6:5 on BJs. The rest of the rules are the ones you mention. SD, H17, DA2, DAS, 6:5. The Ten-Count is -2 for all Tens(T,J,Q,K) and +1 for all the others (A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). So when the running count is at +4 anywhere in the deck the player has some advantage and the Insurance is a +EV in a regular game that pays 3:2 but in this 6:5 game it may not be the case. Also the penetration is about 7 rounds heads-up and sometimes the dealer goes for the 8th round too. I either play this game or not play at all and travel to Vegas. The casino where I play has about 12 table with this game. So I can find a game at any time of the day or night. I know it sucks but man---, I'm making money.

M

does Insurance pay 2:1, as in a normal BJ game?

AB

Standard deviation is messing with your head and playing tricks on you. Your situation is not so unusual. If everyone immediately lost all their money on these horrible games, do you think anyone would play them? You are falling for the cheap hustle. You are being 3 Card Monte'd. If you keep playing this game, you have a near 100% chance of winding up a big loser. The best advice anyone can give you is to stop playing the game immediately, be thankful that you had some short term luck, and go spend the money on something you enjoy.

I know the game sucks if you look mathematically what should have happen by now. But so far I've been winning for over 2 years playing 20 hours per weekend. How many hands is that? - I suspect my insurance bet is so perfect that most of casino's edge is evaporated. I know I've been lucky but I don't have other game unless I travel to Vegas.

M,

Twenty hours a weekend? Have you been playing at full tables, too? Molded Truths has given you good advice. Gamblers Anonymous might be the place for you to go instead of the casino.

But still if you look at craps where the house has about 1.47% edge over the pass line bet. The 6:5 BJ is a little better or about the same with perfect insurance. Lots of money could be made on craps regardless the 1.47% house edge. Now, how many BJ do we suppose to get per hour? About 4 or so? But, man---, if I hit a winning streak I still can make a big score even with the 6:5 rule. I feel the 10-Count is great for Insurance and for playing 10 vs. T and 12 vs. 2 and 3. I also feel that just playing my 10-Count with those play variations I can cut the house edge to almost even. I'm not sure but this is what I suspect so far based on my over 2 years at the table where I played about 200,000 hands. Now, that's a lot of hands and if casino didn't took my money yet I suspect I will still be winning some but for sure I don't fell I will lose with my 10-Count system.

M,

You are sadly, sadly mistaken. Nearly every craps player who plays hundreds of hours is a loser. Many gamblers exaggerate their wins and lie (or conveniently forget) about their losses. Unfortunately, it appears you will have to learn things the hard way. Perfect insurance gains you about .117%. Can you grasp that it is not nearly enough to overcome the approx 1.6% house edge on 6:5 single deck games? You came to this website because you were curious to find the truth. Now you have it. It's in your hands what to do with it. I suspect you will keep gambling until impoverished, always thinking you will regain that glorious time period where you had a long luck streak.

variance at craps is much higher than blackjack. That means it takes much longer for both the casino and the player to get into the long run. That means many highly negative EV players can win at craps for a long time before the house finally gets the better of them.

If they deal the 6/5 game to the bottom your 1-5 spread may be giving you a very slight advantage...especially if you are heads up or nearly so for most of the time. If you aren't seeing at least 35 cards before getting to make your final bet before the shuffle AND using 100 or more index numbers preferably with a count like Zen you are probably playing your playing a losing game unless you use a very aggressive shoe type betting approach and sit out a lot of negative counts.