Using a 1-2-4-8 unit Progressive System when one has an advantage...

Hi Guys, Happy New Year to all and Good Luck

Assume you have a 2.5% advantage over the house,

Question 1: Would you recommend using a progressive system where you double your bet after every loss (1-2-4-8 Four step then you abandon and start again) only when you have an advantage.

Question 2: What sort of bankroll would you require (in units)?

Question 3: If you use a progressive system with an advantage, what would is your expected value per hand?

Thankyou for all responses,
- MJ -

MJ,

<Question 1: Would you recommend using a progressive system where you double your bet after every loss (1-2-4-8 Four step then you abandon and start again) only when you have an advantage.>>

Again I'm assuming that your top parameter on possible paramutations is 2.5%. If it was 2.5% from the get go I'd bet 3% of my total BR and increse it as I won. 2.5% advantage is extremely strong.

If it increases with the count I would wager close to Kelly, say $100 at 1% advantage if I had a $10,000 BR, up to $300 when I hit my high. By the way, I would bet table minimum (depending on expected pit heat) when the count was even or neg. If we're talking multi decks I would sit out on heavy neg counts. Note: easily disguised as trip to the john or potty/cig breaks.

Remember, multi decks gives you less positive situation so you have to spread quicker upwards. If it's not a single deck game your 1 to 8 step up won't cut it using a neg progresstion system. Negative progrestion (betting more when you lose a hand) will only work with a single deck when you get good (or great) deck penetration (following an advanced indice schedule and good rules, of course).

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Using Kelly I would go 150 to 200 time minimum bet based on average advantage. I would also strongly suggest "Kellying down" as your BR depletes thru Neg Flux.

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I wouldn't use a "progressive system". If I had a 2% advantage I would flat bet close to Kelly criteria. Example: let's say I'm hole carding a dealer on a hand held deck who gives me 100% information 80% of the time. Using a conservitive hole card strategy I can expect to have about 2.5% advantage. If my BR is $10,000 I would bet about $250 to $300 each hand. Yes, flat bet. If you move your money around, say from $100 to $800 (1-2-4-8 spread), someone might think your counting and have you backed off. If you flat bet you will not get heat (coun ting heat that is). My expected gain would be the advantage times the average wager.

As you can tell by now your information is a bit incomplete. If you give us a little more info regarding your situation, you'll get a better answer.

Good luck and good hunting,

Zman

If you are talking about the game of Blackjack then I agree with Zman. You haven't mentioned what the game is and that is important since different games have very different variance. For example: I believe John May was going to answer what the standard deviation for the Royal Match bet is.

Your betting system does have the benefit of making the pit think you are a meatball with a progressive betting system.

For example: I believe John May was going to answer what the standard deviation for the Royal Match bet is.

Don't know, don't give a shit. I have better things to do than analyze a game which is not even offered on my continent. And I'm certainly not jumping through hoops on Grosjean's behalf. I kind of expected the book to provide me with that information since that is what it promises.

Here is a question for you, why do you recommend a book by a guy who seems to have no idea what a kelly wager is?

Just so you know, Billy, the person asking this question is Michael Barnett, the Australian casino surveillance spy who likes to think he has infiltrated these and other pages.

Don

Don,
I should have known from the incomplete information he gave. I should have realized he didn't know much about playing professionally (or as an amature for that matter).

Bill Z

And, what SW isn't telling you is that that computer is in Austraslia, and the person using it is Michael Barnett.

Here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to stop answering questions on this page and other bj21 pages from people whose handles I don't recognize. I know I can't stop others from doing the same, but I find it offensive and a breach of ethics that SW knows that Barnett is on these pages, pumping people for information that he will then either SELL to casinos or use himself to help throw advantage players out of casinos, and that we will, unwittingly, help him do this.

So, unfortunately, since SW won't do anything about Barnett's presence (he's banned from my site, Don's Domain, on rge21), I'm going to have to do things a little differently.

My apologies to those who ask questions that I would usually answer. But, if you're going to be Jessica, or Jesse, or Sarah, or Michael (all MB aliases) and you ask a phony, newbie question, I'm not going to respond. And, of course, if you're legit, and you happen to use a name I don't recognize, the baby gets thrown out with the bath water, because I'm not going to answer you, either.

I'm sorry, it shouldn't have to be this way; but blame SW, not me.

Don

My NAME IS MICHAEL JONES AND MY SISTER's NAME IS JESSICA. OK GUYS I AM NO SPY AND I DONT KNOW HOW THE HELL YOU GOT THAT IDEA......

THANKYOU

and would already know the answer to these questions (in fact I doubt he would bother asking such a question).

that it was an ultra conservative hole card strategy ;-)

zman wrote
"Example: let's say I'm hole carding a dealer on a hand held deck who gives me 100% information 80% of the time. Using a conservitive hole card strategy I can expect to have about 2.5% advantage.

D.

Another thing I noticed when I was a GC member is an imposter(?) who always post there, use to make my stomach turn when I read some of his pathetic comments and nosey questions,,,this guy made me sick. There is no possible way a serious advantage counter would make such flaccid comments. I also noticed that you would never comment to his demands like several others often did.

Good Job!

I'm not expressing an opinion here; I'm telling you a fact.

Don

question, I will ask it in the domain. It seems like in there, the names of everyone are always much more familiar. I very rarly see names pop up in there that I don't know. These other rooms are much more active, but filled with alot of blah blah blah.

Regards,
Hollywood

One casino spy is likened to the Antichrist while another is endearingly called "Billy". Don, you're a funny guy.

Flat bet the table minimum!

Best Regards,
Crackerjack

of the way you think most of the time. I know who Bill Zender is. He's in the open.

Don

If it is possible for someone in the casino industry to be one of the "good guys," Z-man would certainly fall into that category.

When he was running the Aladdin, he proved that casinos and counters (at least low-mid stakes ones) could peacefully co-exist, while the casino could still offer a decent game.

He has written How To Detect Casino Cheating at Blackjack, a most valuable book for anyone playing the game.

He has provided us with much valuable "insider" info on these boards, as well as entertaining us with stories about the "old days."

He has always posted openly, and never attempted to conceal who or what he is.

Hardly the same as a scumbag such as Barnett, who is presently actively involved in casino surveillance, and who posts misleading posts under a variety of aliases in an attempt to gain info from well-intentioned advantage players.