unbalanced counts and pivot points

I'm currently learning to count using KO preferred for six deck games. Although I know that this is a perfectly fine level 1 count, I've been looking at a couple of other unbalanced counts and have a question.

The Red Seven count for example, is almost as simple as the KO, but it's pivot is lower than that of KO. Does this mean that the Red Seven count will be more profitable, since the pivot will be reached more frequently than for KO? The KISS count has an even lower pivot. Or is this difference so small it's not worth worrying about?

I'm thinking about this particularly because many of the games I play in have rather mediocre penetration, so reaching the pivot point earlier seems like a good idea. Thanks.

"The Red Seven count for example, is almost as simple as the KO, but it's pivot is lower than that of KO. Does this mean that the Red Seven count will be more profitable, since the pivot will be reached more frequently than for KO?"

There is a small difference in terminology between these two systems and the so-called "pivot". 'Pivot' does not mean the same with both systems.

If you look at the two, with a DD game both start with -4 IRC. At +2 with Red Seven we reach the "pivot" and with KO, we reach the "pivot" at +4. Sounds like you are reaching the pivot 'sooner' with Red Seven. Truth is, with KO there is the KEY COUNT that you're not factoring in here which equates with Red Seven's "pivot", nor are you considering that you are counting an extra card with Red 7 (Red 7s). At Key with KO and Pivot with Red Seven you have approximately a 1% advantage from start. KO's pivot is actually about 1.5% advantage from start...at least this is my understanding of the two.

Since you count half the sevens in Red Sevens, it DOES make that system a little better overall compared to KO. Either of them will get you the money!

Regards,
PM

nomdeplume,

Norm Wattenberger, who is known as the author of the excellent BJ software suite Casino Verite, recently proposed an even easier version of KO that he calls "Ridiculously Easy KO". or REKO. Click the link below to read the thread (from the AP.com BJ webpage).

Dog Hand

Ahh, ok, I think I see what you mean. So for KO the point at which the shoe turns favourable is the KEY COUNT, but for Red Seven it's the PIVOT? Am I understanding you here?

I should say I only have a sketchy understanding of Red Seven, although I've recently ordered Snyder's book.

Hi Dog Hand,

Thanks very much for posting this link, very interesting. It does beg the question why any new player who plays shoe games would choose to learn Hi-Lo these days. That's not to suggest it's not a superiour count, of course it is. But it's not THAT much better to make a difference to the average player. I'm certainly going to go with KO myself.

I'm new to this and I have a question regarding the REKO post.

NW says that the IRC for REKO is -20, rather than -24 as in KO Preferred. He also says that the strategy changes kick in at +2. But what is the key count and pivot for this system?

Using KO Preferred in 6 deck games the indices (ignoring insurance for a minute) occur at -4 (the KC) and +4 (the pivot), so does that mean that for REKO the key count and pivot are the same (+2)? Thanks

"NW says that the IRC for REKO is -20, rather than -24 as in KO Preferred."

The 6-deck IRC for KO Preferred is the same as it is for KO Rookie and for REKO: -20. (The IRC for True-counted KO, or TKO, is -24, but true counting an unbalanced count is a different issue.) The key count for KO Preferred (-4 for 6-deck) and the pivot (+4) are the same as REKO. The only difference between KO Preferred and Norm's REKO is the further simplification of the strategy. In KO Preferred, there are some strategy decisions based on the key count and some based on the pivot, so you have to remember both the hands that change and the count at which they change. In REKO, all the strategy changes occur at running count +2 (which is neither the key nor the pivot). So, with REKO, you would use the same IRC, key, and pivot as standard KO for all betting purposes, but use make the strategy changes when the running count is +2 or higher.

Roger, thanks for your very clear explanation. I haven't heard of TKO, could you please provide me with a reference for this?

Cheers

"There is a small difference in terminology between these two systems and the so-called "pivot". 'Pivot' does not mean the same with both systems."

I don't think that's quite accurate. The value of the KO pivot is not the same as Red7, but the meaning is the same: In an unbalanced count, the pivot is the only point at which the ratio of high cards to low cards is precisely known, regardless of where you are in the deck. Since player advantage is correlated to this high/low ratio, then the pivot is also the point at which the (approximate!) advantage is also most accurately known.

In their standard versions, the pivot for Red7 is 0 and the pivot for KO is +4. (But, since we don't have to worry about true count calculations with these systems, you can set the pivot anywhere you like, provided that you change the Initial Running Count by an equivalent amount.) Compared to true-counted High-Low, the Red7 pivot of 0 is approximately equivalent to a High-Low TC of +2, which is a reasonably good place to start the betting ramp (although it is slightly suboptimal for some rules). A High-Low TC of +2 is roughly worth a player advantage of 0.5% (depending on the rules). On the other hand, the KO pivot of +4 is approximately equivalent to a High-Low TC of +4, which gives you an advantage somewhere near 1.5%. That's about the point where would want to place a maximum bet (again, depending on the rules), so KO also uses a key count to indicate the point at which, on average, the player first has an advantage worth raising the bet. (Most of the KO key counts correspond to about 0.25% advantage for typical rules.) In other words, Red7 doesn't use a key count because the pivot itself serves as the "raise" indicator, but then you have to use other techniques (e.g. "true edge") with Red7 to know when to place a maximum bet.

... if you set the pivot to 0. (Since the IRC is always the pivot minus the per-deck imbalance times the number of decks, the IRC for TKO in a 6-deck game would be -4 * 6 = -24.) Then, you can get the true count by dividing by the number of decks remaining, the same as with a balanced system. However, the trick is that this TC will be less than the TC for a balanced count with similar tag values, and the difference is the per-deck imbalance. That is, a TKO TC of -4 has about the same player advantage as a High-Low TC of 0, TKO 0 is about the same as High-Low +4, etc. But this difference doesn't matter if you adjust your betting ramp and your playing strategy accordingly. (For example, you could use High-Low playing indices for TKO by subtracting 4 from all of them. For betting, if you start your TKO ramp at -2, that would be about the same as starting a High-Low ramp at +2.)

Standard Red7 already has a pivot of 0, so it's ready off-the-shelf for true counting. But those TCs will be about 2 points less than TCs if you were using High-Low, because the per-deck imbalance is 2 (the 2 red 7s).

Hi again Roger,

Thanks so much for taking the time to reply to my questions. For a newbie like myself this information is superb, I'm lapping it up with a spoon!

It's taking me a bit of time to assimilate this information, but I get the gist of it. As luck would have it Amazon have just delivered my copy of Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack, which also talks about this subject in some detail. I'll have a read of this and I'll read your posts again. If I'm still not clear I may be back to ask you more questions, hope you don't mind.

Roger, I don't know how long you've been doing this but you obviously know your stuff. I have another question for you (or for any other experienced counter for that matter).

I live in the UK where the rules of the game are standardised across the country by the British Gaming Authority. The rules are as follows:

6 decks, S17, DAS, Double 9, 10 and 11 only, Aces can be resplit but then receive only 1 card, European no hole card (dealer takes all with natural), no insurance, no surrender. In short, they're poor (house has slightly over 0.5% edge). (I'm only telling you this in case it makes a difference to your answer).

I've always been a basic strategy player, but I'd like to try counting (which is why I'm asking all these questions). I probably wouldn't be able to play more than once a week at the moment, but in future I'd like to play more seriously.

With this in mind, which counting system would you recommend?

I'm torn between KO Preferred (or maybe REKO), Red Seven or Hi-Lo (with I18 or maybe Hi-Lo Lite).

I know that it's generally agreed that Hi-Lo is the best of these, followed by Red Seven and then KO, although I think it's quite close for shoe games where betting efficiency is more important than playing efficiency.

I think that with practice I could manage converting to a true count, my mental arithmetic is sound. But I'm not sure that for the type of games I'm forced to play it really matters so much.

What would you recommend? I don't want to spend a lot of time practicing only to have to change later, so I'd really appreciate your thoughts.

I know a lot of experienced people who started off playing Hi-Lo when there was really no alternative will always go for Hi-Lo, but from the point of view of a new player today, is it worth the extra work?

Cheers

Hi nomdeplume

Good to see another uk player posting.
The first blackjack book that i ever bought was KO followed closely by blackjack blue book 2, you seem to have done the same. The first count i tried to learn was KO but i didn't like it couldn't get to grips with it maybe because it was my first attempt at learning a count. So i moved over to Renzeys kiss count and have been usin it ever since.
The difference between KO,Kiss3 and red7 is verrrrrry small red7 outperfoms kiss3 by 0.01% in a 6deck shoe and kiss3 outperforms KO by 0.02% in a 6 deck shoe. I'd say go with kiss or red7. The kiss count is explained very well in renzeys book and is a easy to use.You can find Mr Renzey over at http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/ he also posts frequently at http://www.hitorstand.net/ message board he's a great guy and answers emails/posts with lightning speed.
You'll probaly find a bit more literature on red7 than you will on kiss because its been around longer and its been tweaked numerous times you'll find alot of info on it at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/ arnold synders own site.
But then if you wanted to use hi-lo that outperforms kiss and red7 by 0.01/0.02(ish)at 6 deck. But then you'll have to learn to true count and this is were balanced counts are harder to use, but you'll find a huge amount of info on hi-lo its pretty much the standard count.

Anyway the choice is yours good luck with it.

The Pivot is the point in the Running Count where the Deck Composition (True Count) does nto depend on the number of unseen cards. With a balanced count, the Pivot is Zero.

If you are not doing True Counts, the Pivot is the place where your Running Count is a most accurate (because at he Pivot the RC does tell you your TC) as Roger said.

At the end of your post Since you count half the sevens in Red Sevens, it DOES make that system a little better overall compared to KO. Either of them will get you the money!

Counting half the 7s does not make Red 7 better. Counting half the 7s as +1, and half the 7s as zero, is worse than counting all the 7s at +1. It is not the same as counting all the 7s as 0.5. With correlations, two wrong do not make a right; they make a bigger wrong.

If you true counted KO and the �Red� form of Red7, then you would see that TKO was superior. (Although the level two version of Red 7 would be better). Any superiority that Red7 has in Running Count mode comes from the pivot that it uses, which is better for some games.

"I'm torn between KO Preferred (or maybe REKO), Red Seven or Hi-Lo (with I18 or maybe Hi-Lo Lite)... What would you recommend?

This is a good place to get advice from a lot of people who have much more playing experience than I do, and your question calls for a subjective opinion, but I think most of the players here would recommend starting with the one that you feel you can play most accurately, since playing accurately will make more of difference than the small theoretical differences between those systems. That would probably be REKO because of the simplified strategy, or KO Preferred if you're sure you've got that strategy down cold.

However, I would make one suggestion if you're going to start with KO or REKO: use a pivot of 0 instead of the +4 recommended by the book -- just drop all the numbers by 4. Then, when you're ready, you will be all set to gradually work TKO into your play -- playing mainly by the running count, but able to calculate a true count for the close decisions, and able to gradually add TKO strategy variations.

Sundance,

Thanks for the advice and the excellent links. I've been reading through Arnold Snyder's articles and I'm about half way through his book. It's good stuff.

Out of interest, whereabouts do you play in the UK? What's the lowest limit tables you have found? The reason I ask is that in London the lowest bet seems to be �5, which after reading one of the chapters in Snyder's book seems to require more bankroll than I have.

Cheers

Thanks Roger,

I think I'm going to stick with KO Preferred for now, I understand it and I can play it pretty accurately.

I've just realised that most of the unbalanced systems have a 'True count' version, TKO and Advanced Red Seven to name two. I'm not sure that I need this at the moment.

From what I can gather the only advantage of using a true counted system (at least for shoe games) is that you can bet more accurately which will lower your SD and slightly increase your earn rate, or because you really need to use a balanced count when using more advanced techniques such as shuffle tracking. Is this correct? If so, I don't think I need to worry about it at the moment.

I also like the idea of starting off with a running count system and then gradually converting it into a true count system. This seems a natural way to do things.

I might have a closer look at Red Seven, since according to Snyder and Fuchs this performs slightly better than KO in six deck games with mediocre penetration, but I don't think there's much in it.

If I do stick with KO I'll definitely take your advice about using a pivot of zero, just in case I want to move up to TKO in future.

Cheers

I've never played in London so i wouldn't know but my best guess is you should be able to find �2 games if you look around thats pretty much standard in the UK. Try calling ahead to the casino to find out how much the table minimum is it could save you time and energy.
Be sure to look for good penetration because with uk rules we dont have much to work with. (if only they'd get rid of the ENHC rule...sigh)

Someone that plays in london will probaly be able to help out more anyone???????