can someone tell me how beatable is a
6d,enhc,nrsa,d9,no surrender game if the aces are very trackable in a simple one pass shuffle .. 75%penetration .. 1-20 spread
thanks
I have played under a similar situation and it was murder. We had to back ourselves off so they wouldn't get the drift. You should calc your % of accuracy and use the % advantage that you have when one of your first two cards is an Ace for bet sizing. More than that, you will need amazing cover to get away with this for more than a few shoes.
i miscomunicated.. not sequential tracking on specific aces .. on single or double riffle .. but on tracking a clump of aces in say a deck or so .. with 7-8 aces .. is that beatable on those rules ??
the aces could drop on dealer!! not like sequencing where we get the ces ...
I have played under a similar situation and it was murder. We had to back ourselves off so they wouldn't get the drift.
"Back yourself off." Why don't you just take half your EV and flush it down the toilet before you start?
You should calc your % of accuracy and use the % advantage that you have when one of your first two cards is an Ace for bet sizing.
If you are able to sequence well, you will not have to worry about bet sizing for more than a few hours. Then you will have to worry about table maxes. But very, very few people are able to do this.
More than that, you will need amazing cover to get away with this for more than a few shoes.
I have every confidence that you have never sequenced in your life after reading this post. You need almost no cover for a few shoes. You are not varying your bets with the count or anything. There is no pit in the world that would know what you are doing within an hour. If a casino has a shuffle you can sequence easily, they probably don't know what sequencing is.
It takes more than a one pass shuffle to sequence, but somehow you think that is sufficient. Even more proof that you have never done this before. Stop giving advice when you have no idea what you are talking about.
Math Boy
miscomunicated.. not sequential tracking on specific aces .. on single or double riffle .. but on tracking a clump of aces in say a deck or so .. with 7-8 aces .. is that beatable on those rules ??
the aces could drop on dealer!! not like sequencing where we get the ces ...
If you are able to track 7-8 EXTRA aces through the shuffle into a one deck slug and no other information, you have roughly a 3.5%-4% edge on that slug. You can see this as the hi-lo count is +7 or +8 off the top.
I wasn't going to post, but can't let the misinformation of Rob McGarvey give people the wrong impression. Actually pulling off shuffle tracking is more difficult than most people believe. There are a lot of errors that people make, and they don't even believe they are making them most of the time. A very small fraction of those who count can track well enough to not lose a ton of money. Actually pulling off sequencing is even harder.
Math Boy
>> More than that, you will need amazing cover to get away with this for more than a few shoes.
> I have every confidence that you have never sequenced in your life after reading this post. You need almost no cover for a few shoes.
I don't know or care if RM has ever "sequenced in his life" but you just agreed with what he said about cover. Read it again.
Rob McGarvey:
We had to back ourselves off so they wouldn't get the drift.
More than that, you will need amazing cover to get away with this for more than a few shoes.
Both statements allude that heavy cover is required for sequencing.
Math Boy:
You need almost no cover for a few shoes. You are not varying your bets with the count or anything. There is no pit in the world that would know what you are doing within an hour. If a casino has a shuffle you can sequence easily, they probably don't know what sequencing is. It takes more than a one pass shuffle to sequence, but somehow you think that is sufficient.
Math Boy is saying that almost no cover is needed during the first few shoes because the tracker is only observing for the sequence while flat betting. After that, the tracker then only needs light cover since if the game can be sequenced, the casino is not capable of determining why the sequencer has started to vary his bets.
Math Boy is an extremely intelligent person. I would study a matter very carefully before telling him that he does not understand something.
since i am only talking about section tracking of aces plus favourable cards i still dont know the answer to my earlier question .. as this is not sequential tracking..
but i get the feeling that this could be more favourable than counting on more favourable rules like additional da2..and surrender..
its just that i have 2 casinois .. now .. one offer 6d,no surrender,d9,nrsa, but trackable as mentioned .. the other has surrender ,da2, both good penetration.. which is better ?
thanks
Math Boy is an extremely intelligent person. I would study a matter very carefully before telling him that he does not understand something.
Sun Runner was merely stating a fact and not making character judgements.
Sun Runner was referring to Rob's comment:
More than that, you will need amazing cover to get away with this for more than a few shoes.
To which Math Boy responded,
You need almost no cover for a few shoes.
...clearly implying Rob had said that you needed cover for a few shoes when he had not. He just misread it.
I tend to agree with the wider point cover is less than a priority with sequencing. But, thats a bit of simplification, under optimal conditions your win rate can be impressive enough that the sheer amount of chips piling up is enough to freak out the casino. And while I agree with the statement that they won't be able to figure out exactly what you are doing within an hour, there is some chance of them mistaking you for a card marking cheat. A consistent correlation between big bets and aces will get you in trouble.
I also agree with all you said in your final paragraph about additional reasons that may call for the need for cover in sequencing.
I also understand that SR was not making a character assessment about Math Boy. However, I was making one when I stated that Math Boy is extremely intelligent. I have listened to him and Math Prof (no relation) having a conversation in person. Trust me, they are very, very smart.
My point, however, is that there is disparaty between Rob's and Math Boy's opinion about the overall need for cover in sequencing. If Math Boy (and anybody else, for that matter) were to re-read the posts, they would see the unlikeness of opinions expressed.
>> More than that, you will need amazing cover to get away with this for more than a few shoes.
> I have every confidence that you have never sequenced in your life after reading this post. You need almost no cover for a few shoes.
I disagree that the above two sentences are equivalent. Just because you need no cover for a few shoes does not imply that you need "amazing cover" after a few shoes. In fact, I think you need almost no cover ever. My definition of slight cover is something like betting more than $5 when you are not betting into a card. I would consider a bet of $25 while waiting to throw purple on the table slight cover.
Perhaps I should have been more open about what I wanted to say. Sometimes my writing belies my mathematical training. I will write something that no one could possibly disagree with. Rob said that he "backed himself off after a few shoes" because he thought he would be spotted. It is incomprehensible to me for the pit to pick out a sequencing player after a few shoes. You would have to be sitting there with a pad of paper taking notes or something. It is within the realms of probablility that they could figure you out after a few hours. You could also get hit by lightning.
I have actually tried sequencing myself. There is one game of which I am aware that is extremely sequencable. I am not very good at it, but then again I have not practiced a lot. I played three days straight until I got unbearable headaches. I sit there like a stereotipical counter. Concentrating my butt off and staring at the cards for hour after hour. Flat betting table min most of the time, and sometimes popping up to table max. On the second day, I heard the pit saying "I don't know what he is doing, but I wish he would just go away." Because they thought I was up to something, they cut the shoe in half. Because I was not a counter, I played an additional four hours that day. Most pits are stupid. They are too stupid to count, but they know that the easiest way to get rid of counters is to cut the shoe in half. It is a bluff. After the third day my wife was so bored sitting around in this town that she made me leave.
That is what I think typical heat would be on sequencing. Stopping after a few hours is stupid. In general, you should play until you have won so much that the casino kicks you out from general principal. Just like any other advantage play, if the pit knows what to look for, they can spot you. When we are playing, we should know how the pit can figure us out. The problem for them is that they usually don't know what to look for. 99%+ of all pits in the world would have no idea what you were doing if you sat there for eight hours a day sequencing.
Now I am not claiming to be a great sequencer. I have done it once. But having done it once is enough to know that Rob McGarvey has never done it in his life. Everything he writes on the subject makes no sense. I may go back and sequence again, but there are a lot of other good games out there for me to pound righ now. I'm on the road pounding at the moment (big surprise, I'm almost never at home for more than two weeks at a time), so please understand if I don't respond to this stuff quickly. And I'm not sequencing.
Math Boy
I also understand that SR was not making a character assessment about Math Boy. However, I was making one when I stated that Math Boy is extremely intelligent. I have listened to him and Math Prof (no relation) having a conversation in person. Trust me, they are very, very smart.
I know that. From the limited discussions I've had with him I'd say he is probably up there with Frank B as the best all-round advantage player in the business.
In this case, I have a major advantage in that I lived in a country/region where games that could be sequenced were accessible as a practical matter, so I felt qualified to comment, having done quite a lot of it.
In addition, MB seems to have a grudge against Rob and also, Eliot Jacobson. This seems to me to be rather like continually kicking two naughty puppies. They occassionally flirt with misinformation but rarely sail completely over the line, and spend a lot of time helping people with the meat and potatoes of advantage play. I would have thought there were much better targets for vitriol given all the out-and-out scumbags in the business.
Most learned about sequencing from the Bishop's original ST series. I published a little more info on the subject in my Get The Edge At Blackjack, (ironically I was criticized for cursory treatment of the subject, but it is the most detailed in print). David Morse's "Blackjack Reallity" also touches on the subject. These will give you the basics, most of it you have to figure out yourself.
You could go straight to the source and read Thorp's JASA "Non-Random Shuffling with application to the game of Faro" article, which contains the first ace location system for blackjack, however, its difficult to get hold of, and doesn't contain much beyond later treatments of the subject.
.. before responding. It says what it says.
I am aware of who Math Boy is and have great respect for his posts and insights.
But thanks for the heads-up, none the less.
I think we all are within splitting hairs of agreeing on at least this point.
I just wish somebody could help Chance King with his "confused chicken!" post up above. He started the thread looking for help.
ey ey eye! I know you have it in for me bathboy, which is fine for someone with your personality or lack thereof. I may have had the idea I was being watched by surveillance, but usually my sixth sense is never too far from wrong. With the piles of chips we had in front of us, no, in fact, they were definetly watching us, and we all gave each other the nod to sod off. Fighting with you is like fighting with a dummy, so I'll not bother showing what a farcehole you are.
Here's a wee piece from a Robert V. Lux interview of AdvantagePlayer.com founder and RGE Publishing owner Viktor Nacht.
Q#15: Albeit you do not write books on blackjack, you run courses on shuffle tracking. Can you describe those courses to the curious? Costs? Length? Level?
Shuffle tracking is so much an art that many players, especially mathematically-minded (MATHBOY), experienced ones, are unable to make the leap of faith required to master the techniques associated with visualizing the location of the cards and playing them. We run a 16-hour course for $300-$400 (depending on the instructor) that interactively teaches the published techniques, with a few new tips and tricks thrown in. There tends to be a lot of sensitivity amongst pros about shuffle tracking, so we try to find the delicate balance of helping those that want to learn � our job � without giving away the farm. We orient them towards experienced counters, although I've heard it argued that the better shuffle tracker is one that learned tracking first, and counting second.
Q#16: Many serious players claim that shuffle tracking is too hard to exploit and, more or less, useless, because of its complicity and restrictedness. Only a few games, where suitable shuffles are utilized, are beatable with shuffle tracking. How much of a gain, may be achieved, by adding proper shuffle tracking methods to one's arsenal? Is the above shuffle tracking myth incorrect?
The more players that think that way, the better. I also hope they consult for the casinos.
Your other questions are best left to the true experts.
Was my first exposure to sequencing theory. His memory techniques didn't gel with the way I remember things, so I kept that on the back burner until a game came up that I thought I could sequence. I try to use my phone # recall to do this. What's the phone # for Col. Saunders in your neighbour hood? Col Saunder's and his boys make it finger likin good. 244-2884? Regardless of what anyone thinks, I have sequenced. It makes no difference to me if you believe me or not. If you say yes, YOU are right. If you say NO, then YOU are wrong. It's just that simple to me. Chance King's question is about shuffle tracking. Chance King's question hung in the air for a full day and thought it deserved at least a drive by answer. My lack of detail just left me wide open for an attack of some sort, and MB is famous for filling that position. Now you know why people do not talk about the really big advantage plays on boards like these and messages with anything new go unanswered. When I talked about Interent play at the now defunkt BJFOnline MB was there trying to stick a sock in my mouth, trying to discredit me so I couldn't start another online blackjack revolution that would kill the advantage he enjoys playing online. Greedy is only a good thing when it is only yourself you are worried about. A lot of wasted effort in this thread guys. Focus and answer CK's question without stepping all over me. "I disagree" makes the same point without making you look like an ACEhole. Sequence that.........
Thanks for the compliment? laugh
"In addition, MB seems to have a grudge against Rob and also, Eliot Jacobson. This seems to me to be rather like continually kicking two
Elly and I are often at odds, but I think you will find that this is commonplace with passionate people that are not destined to be couch potatoes. MB is no couch potatoe, but he is a potatoe that thinks he is a dick-tatter.....smile
naughty puppies. They occassionally flirt with misinformation but
Hmmm. I guess discussing new ideas is flirting? Guilty. But I only take the virins home to meet Mama....grin
rarely sail completely over the line, and spend a lot of time helping people with the meat and potatoes of advantage play. I would have thought there were much better targets for vitriol given all the out-and-out scumbags in the business.
MB knows who the real farceholes are, but when you enter a room by standing on everyone's head you are sure to be noticed. It's a great way to capture everyones attention, and I applaud his grand entrance.
Now what do you think of same sex marriages in LA? Take a stand on an issue like that if you dare, not on whether or not you think I have sequenced. May the Passion of Christ be with you always,
Rob
See the movie..
PS I do like to help people become successful in many ways. Keep your eye on my newsletter.
