Has anyone noticed that variance seems to be less in games like Craps and Baccarat, even though the odds are higher than bj?
Is it because (if true) in bj we interfere in the outcome?
In craps, betting on the pass line or don't pass line has less variance than BJ because you only win or lose a single unit in craps. You can win or lose multiple units in BJ. A similar argument can be made for the player and banker bets in baccarat.
Most other bets in craps (hardways, hop bets, any 7, any craps, etc.) have greater variance than in BJ because of the higher payouts. A similar argument can be made for the tie bet in baccarat.
If you flat bet the Craps Line bets (-1.4) and an average BJ game, (-.5) your variance would be similar, but you would lose less (in the long run) at the BJ game because of the house advantage.
If you add the Odds bet to the Craps Line bets, your variance will increase as you increase the X's Odds bet. Of coarse by doing so, you will lose less (in the long run) by lowering the games edge.
Works the same way in BJ. As you increase bets to coincide with player advantage, you are also increasing variance. Big difference in games though is no matter how much or HOW you bet in Craps you can never overcome the house edge. (My appologies to dice controllers)
Moral of the story: Variance is a friend of the well prepared gambler as long as they have three things (bankroll, bankroll, bankroll)
Frenchman
Not every one has a huge bankroll(myself included), so they must find ways to control variance. By slowing down and giving up some advantage, may result in making less and take longer, instead of always going for the big score and the inherent risk.
Most will never have a huge bankroll and if their current bankroll is lost, pushes them even further away from ever having one.
Settling for smaller wins by giving up some advantage, may mean more trips, time spent and increased expenses, but the bankroll should result in being more stable.
If you add the Odds bet to the Craps Line bets, your variance will increase as you increase the X's Odds bet. Of coarse by doing so, you will lose less (in the long run) by lowering the games edge.
Whether you lose less or not depends upon how you define it. If you compare total dollars bet when you add the odds bet, then you will lose a lower percentage of the total dollars bet. However, if you simply look at the total amount lost, you will lose no less by playing the odds line than you would by playing just the line bet. The odds bet is a wash in the long run, meaning you will win or lose nothing, while the line bet is still the line bet. All you do by adding the odds bet is increase your variance.
NEVER MAKE A BET. This is my best advice for all progression players. Variance = zero. If you think you "must" place bets, then you might as well hang it up -- they've got you.
ETF
"Not every one has a huge bankroll(myself included), so they must find ways to control variance."
That would limit the action appeal by far. The tables wouuldn't get any where near exciting . ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!
Dice used in casino craps have sharp edges and points. I have seen blood shed by getting hit in the face by wild shooters and bad bounces. Not a frequent occurance, but it happens. I am often surprised that the games even permit handicapped and those in wheel chairs to play with their heads at table level without wearing face or eye protection. Hey, that's a solution. What about dice made out sponge rubber?
Nope, craps will always be a stand-up game.
Cobbson
