The Only Weapon Non-counters Have ...

... is his/her bet (assuming everyone plays basic strategy). This is simply a foregone result of playing a negative expectation game. So ...

... ISTM (it seems to me) a progressive bet is mandatory for a non-counter to have any chance of walking away a reasonably consistent winner. And don't give me that crap about a flat bet strategy (ala valium betting) being the best for non-counters because flat betting is totally relative (a flat bet can be seen as a sum of progressive bets - If you play $100 flat on every hand you could just as easily bet $25, $50, $75 say, progressively, until a $100 is reached at which point if you are ahead you continue along in your progressive ignorance, if behind you start over to $25). But more than any other factor progressive bets for non-counters is the only way ...

... to detect a hot or cold deck, table, casino, whatever. There's not one player here who does not sense when a deck changes (to hot or cold). A flat bettor will see the change when it is too late to increase, a negative progressive player really doesn't take much notice, so only an increasing progressive player stands a chance of winning consistently (or losing minimally) based on swings of the cards because he's already deep into the winning streak or fully withdrawn into valium play.

ONLY WHEN THE CARDS BEHAVE AS MATHEMATICALLY PREDICTED IS THE MINIMUM HOUSE ADVANTAGE REALIZED (.17% TO .4%). ALL OTHER TIMES YOU ARE RIDING A YO-YO STRING.

CONCLUSION - Positive Progressive betting (for non-counters) is the only way to identify when a deck is currently against you or in your favor. This requires that upon a win, the bet must be increased, reversed if a hand loses. I never ever double up and I prefer reversing bets at a more rapid velocity than I use to increase them, for example:

$25, $30, $35, $50, $100 on the way up followed by $35, $25 on the way down, assuming $25 minimum. You will lose chips rather slowly and win chips very rapidly (loss streaks usually outnumber win streaks).

Is this a winning strategy - NO. YOu must count cards to acquire that edge, but it is a strategy that will always permit you to enjoy the game immensely, sit at a table for a long time (you will often win big or lose small and always get a helluva lot of table play for a given bankroll) and feel that phenomena of the changing deck. Contrary to mathematical models, decks also go cold, decks also go hot totally independant of a current count.

I can generally tell when a deck changes within five hands and I've played istanbul and prague where decks had been altered, believe me you can tell when they have. It is not the number of consecutive losses that gives one a clue, it is the consecutive nature of those losses. Believe me when four consecutive two-card 20's have been trumped by a dealer's two consecutive 20's, one 21 and one bj, you get suspicious, the deck's either gotten damn chilly and you resort to valium play (i.e., flat bets) or you better get the hell out of that place or your playing in Istanbul.

pops

There's not one player here who does not sense when a deck changes (to hot or cold).

I hope this is a joke.

it is a strategy that will always permit you to enjoy the game immensely, sit at a table for a long time (you will often win big or lose small and always get a helluva lot of table play for a given bankroll)

The point is to sit there as long as you can?

go back to BJ school.

first, the house edge versus progression players and flat betting basic strategy players is exactly the same. The cards do perform exactly as mathematically predicted. The "yo-yo" variance you describe is completely predictable and expected.

What does a progression do to your results? Progressions simply change the distribtution of results and these changes depend on the type of progression you use. Through progressions you can change the nature of your distribution of results to just about any shape you desire. If you want a smaller chance of losing big and an occasional big win a posi-progression is the choice of many. What is the cost? You will lose most of your sessions but these losses will be relatively smaller than a flat bettor. Your average wins will be also larger than a flat bettor, but will happen less frequently.

Aside from this effect on your win/loss distribution curve, progressions don't have any effect on the house edge. I do agree with you 100% in that progressions are much more fun than flat betting.

Forward or Back, not sure which.

But I suspect the Feed was from counters. I grew up on thorpe. Before I became a paid engineer, I played Lost Wages for two years - for my livelihood (girlfriend dealt tho never at my tables). Not once did I consider 'hot' or 'cold' tables, decks, casinos, whatever. I was playing armed with radar. Being without the count (that was the string's topic, yes?) for a counter is like feeling nude at a tuxedo party (or a baghdad anti-aircraft battery when stealths are flying over). Take the count away and the game is different. The count replaces instinct, you become a robot better - and when you remove the count only instincts are left for the bet (along with basic playing strategy, that is). Something, I think, counters tend to forget - i.e., without that radar you have no idea where to shoot. The intent of this string was to give NON-COUNTERS whatever wisdom one may have picked up, not to convert the counters to this low-life form method of playing bj (heh, heh).

I read a lot of strings here before posting and concluded you are a top thinking group. The MIT BJ team eventually lost as did LTM (stox), the latter because the Nobel Laureate's had few instincts, the former because they let their math override their senses when things started turning sour.

And to the commenter who indicated that time at a table gets no cigar, you ignored the premise - Non-counter betting strategy in a game where expectation is negative. If I had learned string theory in college, perhaps I might be able to provide the math of it.

Overall, i found it most interesting that no one here seems to have played at a 'cold' table - they do exist. Ask any casino if their crap tables (no strategy beats that game, yes?) ever went cold (one actually went broke at Stateline, Nevada). Ditto for BJ tables - it happens, it really happens. A house on an extended losing streak knows this phenomenon better than any other. More surprising was no one here feeling when a deck changes independent of the count - in other words you lose no matter what and it doesn't go away until you go away or the cards change to more normal (i.e., predicted) behavior.

A 6d game is less volatile than a 1d game in re predicted card behavior v actual. Another way of saying there are fewer lasting streaks in a 1d v. a 6d game. Playing a 1d game for six decks worth is a lot diff than a single shoe play in re cards behaving according to thorpe. A non-counter with a touch of instinct is better off betting-wise at a shoe (non-counting means non-counting, not even compensating for cards showing) where he can feel before the shuffle.

A form of progressive betting (again, non counter strategy only please) that allows one to track the temperature of current deck behavior is a must if you desire to win, otherwise stick with the valium betting strategy (flat bet) the math types say is the best for basic strategy in the hands of non-counters.

Now, don't get mad at me, darn it. Hot and cold's been working for quite a few years now (since the synapses couldn't handle the count any longer and I took a liking to those free drinks along with a perk now and then).

pops

and most appreciated. It even stirred up a few long lost stochastics in my head. Indeed, the house edge is not altered one iota by a non-counting betting method. I hope i didn't infer that.

One thing did catch me off guard, tho.

"The "yo-yo" variance you describe is completely predictable and expected."

If this were true then one could adjust his betting when the cards were behaving adversely to the recommended play. In other words, taking that hit on 16 with a positive ten count or decreasing one's bets during hi ten counts because one knows which loop of the yo-yo is currently playing. Or did I miss the point.

Okay, how about a shot at hot and cold? Obviously to non-counters the playing strategy is always the same temperature (unwavering basic strategy) so it must be the cards that determine the temperature. Do you ever feel when decks have turned, behavior-wise (i.e., behaving in favor of the house when the odds of a hand are against them or behaving favorably on your side when the counts are favorable to you). I'm talking about extended periods not behavior of a hand here or a hand there.

thanks again,

pops

p.s. I cut and pasted your reply. It's now permanent. That was truly well stated. I'm envious.

The fewer flat betters at the table the easier for counters to blend in.

AND

The more money casino's make at BJ the less carnival games to replace BJ tables.

the "yo-yo's" of blackjack is expected and predictable in that you know that it will happen and the magnitude of which it will happen...you just cannot predict exactly when it will happen.

Like the stock market..."past performance does not predict future results". Numerous studies have been performed that show with 100% certainty that hot shoes do not beget more hot shoes and likewise cold shoes do not predict more hot shoes.

From a player standpoint, my biggest win ever was at a table at which everyone was getting absolutely murdered by the dealer up until the time I sat down. Sometimes hot shoes stay hot and sometimes cold shoes stay cold...and when that happens they are easily remembered...but what has happened was just more of randomness in action. Most of the time hot shoes simply become choppy and hot shoes turn cold just as often as they stay hot.

Indeed there are such things as hot and cold decks. As an interesting aside, I been spending the past year learning to count and practicing on the computer with Blackjack Gold on my Mac or on various online free Java Blackjack games and the decks seem to act counter to the count in that I'm being hammered on high counts and I'm winning my one-unit negative counts. It has me so pyched out that I am afraid to go into a casino and do this for real $$$. My wife looks at this and thinks card counting is all BS and that its all luck and nothing else.

Before I started counting I was a $5 flat better. A buddy said to me "the only way you will ever win any money is to increase your bets when you are hot (which is the same as saying when the shoe is hot)" He would start at $5 and press his bets when he got on winning streaks. This advice is actually correct, but there is a little wrinkle. It can also result in you losing big.

A progression like above just cranks up the variance in your expected return. So if you get lucky you will win a lot more then the flat better but if you are not lucky you will lose a lot more. Looking back at the above example, the progression better will have a higher average bet and therefore in the long run (since non-counting BJ is a negative expectation game) a higher loss.

An anology to progression betting is the stock market of the late 1990's. Everything was going up so the crazier an investor was the more money he made. Meanwhile investors that spent the time to create a diversified portfolio achieved nice but sub-par results. When the market crashed in 2000 the crazy investors loss was so big they ended up with a smaller portfolio then the diversified investors. BJ is the same. If the shoe just happens to be rich in face cards and Aces and you bet big you will look like the smartest guy in the world and you will have fun ribbing the flat better. But when the shoe gets rich in small cards, watch out.

-Roark

You're taking a waterballoon to a gunfight.

There is no controlling voodoo over the table or cards. From one engineer to another, remember the math and forget the magic. Sure I have played on negative decks and won many hands. That doesn't mean that I am on a hot table or the dealer is unlucky for the house. All it means is now the house has maybe a 2% advantage and variance got the best of them. When I lose during a positive deck, I am only able to attribute that to variance as well. Statistically these streaks will happen, but the idea of leaving a table to force the end of a "streak" is absurd. Don't you think there is a possiblity that as soon as you leave that "cold" table, its "temperature" will change. Furthermore the table or casino you go to could start a cold streak at that instant. Effectively following you around town. Statistically it sure as hell is possible, but I wouldn't waste gas money on it.

I used to read about and hear about people being able to sense a hot shoe or a cold shoe, but I never could. I always thought I was missing some necessary instinct to be a successful player.

However, since I have been running my online simulation (22k hands into a 50K simulation), I have noticed that what you say is absolutely true. Just when I think I have predicted a hot shoe, it turns; and just when I think I have a cold shoe pegged, I start winning.

If anyone has the ability to "see" a hot or cold shoe coming on a consistent basis, I'd certainly like to "sit by the side of the master" to see how you do it.

Most likely, it is just one of those urban myths.

... miss the point. I think i haven't communicated a point.

It's not hot shoe v. cold shoe so much that i've tried horribly to get across but recognizing when card behavior has turned (i.e., recognizing aberrant card behavior) for an extended (aka intolerable) stretch. For example, extended stretches when:

- dealer is not busting (thorpe indicated 7 hands as normal - I've never seen that happen for a long stretch)
- Highly advantageous player hands routinely trumped by house
- Unusual (ain't that scientific?) frequency of low hole cards with dealer strong card showing (and you've already busted)
- double downs consistently less than 17
- hi frequency dealer 21s, pushes on bj, etc., etc.

In other words it's time to leave that table, maybe even that casino, maybe stop playing for the rest of that trip, or simply enjoy valium play (flat bets) at minimum table bet (and, if lucky, be there at the change of behavior). It's not that you're losing so much as it is the cards are simply not behaving and that .5% house edge feels like 20%.

On the flip side, the cards turn 'hot' for a stretch. The player recognizes when in a hot stretch and makes progressive bets higher than normal backs off less after a loss. Flat bettor doesn't care.

A counter, more than any other player, knows when aberrant card behavior is actually aberrant (the downside of the yo-yo). For example, an unusual stretch of less-than-7 hole cards with T showing is abnormal for a T-rich deck where that same stretch is normal if the actual card behavior tracked with the count (not a game the counter will necessarily abandon simply because he/she's bankroll is down).

An aware non-counter will leave a game long before a counter will because his observation of card behavior is far different than the counter's view who might see the game going just as predicted (merely extended stretches of favorable or unfavorable counts).

Poorly explained, but a counter has some explaining to do if he/she abandons a game (aka intolerable) before the bankroll is wiped out. Why did you leave? And everyone here has at one time or another (I hope) - left the table, that is.

Back when Thorpe raced thru my blood, i.e., a time when my synapses were firing more conscientiously than now, the key then was still "when to abandon a table." Even after hours of watching others get murdered soon after they sat down and I was the only one left standing - next to winning, another pleasure for the counter - I left when the cards started mis-behaving.

pops

Tim:

It (misbehaving cards) happens to me frequently. Years ago, when I was counting (but no longer) it was simply less of a phenomena because I had a far better view of when misbehavior popped its ugly head. The key IMO is knowing when to abandon a game, that you have given up hope the cards will start behaving or you are protecting a profit. Dealer not busting on hi T counts is only one of numerous indications that you may be in a stretch of mis-behavior, there needs to be more signs. IMO, If you don't abandon the game, you have to shallow your betting, eventually you should find more normal behavior returning (tho you could still lose most of your hands because a favorable count is just not happening).

Try flat betting or smaller incrementals until you get a feel for the behavior phenomena. I never followed the betting schemes accompanying the card counting systems - they were too rich, for one, and too on the edge (meaning you need beaucoup bucks to start - a $2,000 bankroll can quickly become puny feeling on a $20 table). Believe me, tho, once you count cards, you will always feel blind reverting to basic strategy.

fwi,

pops

I am not sure maybe I missed the point of this post. Hot and Cold deck, shoe? There's really no such thing. Unless you�re talking about a "cooler deck" or shoe in witch case you�re being cheated and should leave the table at the first sign of it. I myself would write down the dealers name floor persons name and description of them time and place and table # and pass this info on to what ever agency watches/governs them.

Doesn't matter how good you play your not going to win against a cheat.

Progression play, I welcome it every time I see some one playing it. It takes about 3 or 4 hands to spot some one using it and I smile every time I see it. If it wasn't for people like them we the casinos wouldn't make money.

If your going to use a progressive betting system, the "best" (I use best very loose here) ones I've seen is East Coast and West Coast progressive.

You bet one unit, win bet 3 units, every win after that you bet 1.5 more. It might go up slower but the advantage to this system is you have chips to cover double downs and splits, also when you do lose if you were on say 10 hand winning streak you still made money. Down fall would be to lose every 2nd hand, losing your bank roll faster.

I am not sure witch is witch East Coast I think you stop after 5 or 6 wins, and West Coast you keep going until you hit table max or your hands start shaking because you have some much money on the table. It could be the other way around I don't remember, didn't pay that much attention when it was explained to me.

I am responding out of a hope that others will not take this stuff seriously. Your post includes a high number of gambling myths. Among them:

It's not hot shoe v. cold shoe so much that i've tried horribly to get across but recognizing when card behavior has turned (i.e., recognizing aberrant card behavior) for an extended (aka intolerable) stretch. For example, extended stretches when:

The trouble is that you can only recognize these "streaks" after the fact. This does not assist you in a game, such as you will find in casinos, where you have to post your wager before the fact. Good cards suddenly turn bad, and no one, not even "aware non-counters" can say when it will happen. This is because you can no more predict when a "streak" will begin as when it will end.

An aware non-counter will leave a game long before a counter will because his observation of card behavior is far different than the counter's view who might see the game going just as predicted (merely extended stretches of favorable or unfavorable counts).

You speak of an "aware non-counter" as some sort of seer, able to foretell the future. There is not a grain of truth in this proposition.

You leave a game for many reasons, but not because of a dealer
"streak". If the game is good, meaning the rules and penetration are acceptable and the pit will take your action and you are not in danger fo wearing out your welcome, then you do not leave the game because the dealer is hot, or because the cards are "misbehaving.
Unless by misbehave you mean the game is not honest. You mentioned that you were raised on Thorpe, but I doubt you got this advice from him. He knows better.

Counters do not have to explain to anyone why they do not leave a good game while on a negative fluctuation. The truth is quite the reverse. If a counter felt he can get away with the amount of exposure, he will do just one thing when he loses all his money at a good game. He will go find some more money and return. A good player pays attention to Expected Value, not misbehaving cards. Blackjack is full of swings, both positive and negative. We acknowledge and accept this. If the game is played correctly, the edge of a counter insures a long run positive result.

Putting any store in voodoo such as misbehaving cards, hot dealers and knowing when to leave a table will simply delay the time it takes to become an accomplished advantage player. One may as well study ashtrays with Patterson.

There is a lot of good stuff out there. You will find it in the bj21 catolog and elswhere. You will profit by reading it. Then read it again, repeating the process until you have rid yourself of this nonsense you are posting.

I simply haven't adequately stated mine.

Hot and cold to me is not streaks of wins or losses, it is whether the cards behaved during the losses (you could give a crap about the win behavior). Sure, it's a judgment call (sense, instinct, whatever) when to leave. Did my twelve bust hitting against a strong up card and the dealer makes point? A loss, for sure, but a most normal behavior of the cards. I'll stay at that table even after 20 consecutive losses. But not if that streak is pushed bj's, 20's bested, murderous double downs, and the dealer not busting. In other words, you have to have a sense when to abandon ship.

Besides, as the string topic indicated, "NON-COUNTERS" and for some curious reason that seems to have been mostly ignored here. There is no math involved to worship in playing basic strategy when one is stuck knowing he's in a game stacked against him. There's only one option left, recognizing streaks (hot or cold) early, galloping when hot (5 wins in 6 rounds is hot, as is 7 in ten, as is 15 in 20), walking when cold, jumping off when the horse refuses to respond to reigns or spurs.

IMO, the counter also applies similar instincts when he chooses not to increase his bet as high as recommended by the count, instead raising something less aggressive. Loss of faith in the math?

Bottom line is bets must be progressive on wins, regressive on losses for non-counters to stand a chance of prevailing. Most counters I know even up their minimum when their bankroll doubles. The question is why? Did they decide to redefine that day's bankroll? A sense the cards are behaving?

pops

... adhock. The topic is (See the top of the string):

"The Only Weapon Non-counters Have ...... is his/her bet (assuming everyone plays basic strategy). This is simply a foregone result of playing a negative expectation game."

So, don't start firing all your rpg's at a target that was never there.

"If the game is played correctly, the edge of a counter insures a long run positive result."

Even a hillbilly from Arkansas could have said that one, tho his vocabulary might have been different, but it shows you have a hard time with targets. And even a hillbilly knows that if you bring $20 and bet a $20 table, you have one shot (think about that, it's a tad subtle. Or do you need a hint at what's missing).

And you can take your apparently unlimited bankroll ... never mind. You'll no doubt misread that one as well.

Damit, and I try so hard not to let rudeness beget rudeness.

pops