He's right
I've been a card counter for 15 years. For the first 12 years, I was so moderately successful, it was hardly worth the effort and the hundreds of hours getting killed during high counts took its toll.
I know this is intuitive rather than mathmatical, but anyone who has played for any sustained period of time knows that streaks are uncanny. You can sit there during an artic-cold streak with a high count and just know you're going to get killed each hand played.
Over the last couple of years, I modified my play. I still count, but if the dealer remains red-hot, I simply back-off and return to single unit betting. Conversely, on negative counts, if the dealers can't seem to win a hand at all, I increase my bets slightly (and progressively). Otherwise, if there is no strong streak in either direction, I just play as a strict card counter.
I can't explain it, but my results over the past couple of years are remarkably better than anything I ever did with straight card counting. Moreover, play is a lot more enjoyable---I don't need to keep saying to myself out of frustration when losing a bundle that "I palyed it right---I will be vindicated in the long run."
Hang in there PUIU---you're absolutely correct in my mind---I just wish there was a logical explanation for this phenomenon.
I
