The Bottom Line

So, at this point I am pretty sure I can count effectively (though at some point I will move to a more powerful system than hi-lo). I have been winning pretty steadily for a while, have all apllicable indices memorized, and can count down a deck in 20 seconds. And I am very aware of the dangers of overbetting, but could raise a pretty sizeable (~$20,000) bankroll to begin my pro career.

But I haven't yet bet enough to encounter any heat, and wonder how bad it will be when I do. The bottom-line question is this: can I bet enough, in one way or another, to make around $150,000 per year without getting thrown out of everywhere? I mean, if it means I have to bet more and drop my spread and build up a lot of cash to support the fluctuations, then so be it. I'll wait until I have the cash and do it then. If it means I have to play 45 minutes here and 45 there and hop from casino to casino, I'll do that too. But, bottom line, is it possible, or will bets that large bring down the heat no matter what I do? Because if I'm going to quit my job, than at some point in the next few years I need to pull down around $150,000 cash per year. But I HATE MY JOB, and I would love more than anything to quit and play blackjack all day long, no matter what the obstacles.

Believe it or not, you are the biggest obstacle to making that kind of money. It is not only possible, but inevitable with the right steps. But....on a $20K bank I would have to say....no. You really cannot realistically average more than 1000 hours per year. And even that is not likely. You ned a very large per hour average. And for that you need a very large bankroll. The 45 min thing is a given. It is hard to do it any other way. That is why it is hard to put in more than 500 hours per year.

You will need at least $100K to make $150K per year with about 750 hours in table time. You could do one of two things. 1) Wait until you have a bigger bank to quit your job, or 2) Overbet your bankroll and if you go bust go back to work to raise another bankroll and try again. If you take option two hope for the best but be mentally prepared to go bust.

Krill the G

Okay. I'd been figuring on 2,000 hours a year, but I see now how that will be impossible. So yeah, that will mean bigger bets and a bigger bankroll.

On the other hand, I don't need to make $150K right away. I could survive on less at first while I built up. I refuse to heavily overbet. When I first learned to count, around twelve years ago, I overbet disastrously, and I will never make that mistake again.

Boy wouldn't that be nice....lol! The advice you have gotten so far is right on and i would add that to make 150K a year try shooting for a 200K or greater bank. Especially if playing solo. You are asking questions that you should know if you are ready for this kind of playing. My advice, put together about 50K and go out and play green chips. If you can take the big losses, the traveling, the backoffs you most likely will get, the tip hustling dealers, the ploppiest of ploppies...and this isn't even close to what you will experience playing black chips!! See how long you can take it and then see if you want to do it.

With a 50K bank you can probably bang out between 1000 and 1500 hours your first year, but they WILL get a bit lower each year. There are a few blackchippers who do this for a living on here and they KNOW their stuff trust me. But if you decide to give it a shot anyways i wish you luck!!!

table

who bet black can average about 500 hours a year. I put in 900 hours a few years ago and suffered some burnout. I try to shoot for 600 hours a year which is long enough to get thru most bad swings and still comeout ahead of the game.

You just have to understand where I'm coming from. Over the last few years, I've made several thousand playing very rarely as a hobby. I went with a bachelor party to Vegas a month and a half ago and made about four grand playing $50 min at Bellagio, spreading 5:1. Oh, I know I was risking ruin because I didn't have near the bankroll for that size betting, but that's where my buddies were and I wanted to hang out with them. Anyway, that weekend everything went my way. I hit insurance seven times in a row at one table. When I told a friend not to press a bet, invariably he lost. When I told them to press, they won. If I said, "Why don't you split those tens?" then sure enough, the dealer would bust out. After that weekend, they all thought I was the greatest blackjack player in the world. They all want me to go pro and are following my budding career with great interest.

Since that weekend I've been playing on weekends, spreading $10-$100 and making pretty good profits. And the thing is, during all of this, even at Bellagio, I've NEVER gotten heat. And I know I'm playing correctly. You just start to wonder, "Will the heat ever come? And at what level of play?" I mean, I play all day long betting $10-$100. They'll always comp my food and sometimes a room. If I could just play twice as heavy and get room and board, I could live on that (I figure $20-$100 might make me $30/hour). If I could play four times as heavy, I could really bank some cash. And right now, I'm still just playing hi-lo. But I know I can master counting halves. But apparently, I'll start to get a ton of heat. It's just hard to plan on when you've never seen it.

Anything can happen. Listen to the experienced. You are not ready.

or so it seems when things are going well. No heat and winning. Friends think you're a pro. The future looks grand!

I am not at all patronizing you. I just want you to realize that all current and former AP's, full or part time, have felt the same as you at one time or another. When things go bad, and sure as math they will, life will suck. It will test you in every way. IMHO long term profit from BJ is one of the hardest things to accomplish. It is the hardest way to make easy money.

I am not doubting your ability at all but just be sure you have the edge you think you do. So many new "AP's" get caught up in the emotional high that a win brings. They run out and get more books on BJ. They return to the table, still unpolished, and experience another big win. They believe 100% that they have a 1+% edge and want to quit their job to play BJ full time. I am not saying you fall into this category but I want you to be aware of a common trap that sends many new players to gambler's ruin. My first big loss (big for me) was actually the best thing that could have happened to me. I know it may sound absurd, but in the world of AP BJ, sometimes losing is not a bad thing.

It sounds like you are going to plan everything carefully. That is good. Good luck!

Krill the G

unless you are going to a non-barring town and are content to keep playing after they put you on a bet restriction and cut the shoe in half.

your actual expected win rate per session is probably only about 1/10 to 1/30 of your average fluctuation per session (depending on session length). Over the short term, if you have won more than the expected number of sessions you will have a very distorted idea of your win rate (if you don't know any better).

I won over $100K in December. So I guess that means I should win 1.2 million per year, right? No, I'm actually a net loser for this year with 4 1/2 months of play.

The stock market did very well in December. It has not done well so far this year. It is clear you only do well when the stock market does well (direct relationship). Start making your BJ play around the stock market and you will be on easy street!

Feanor,

We've all felt that way. Of course, you aren't getting heat with a $10 - 100 spread, that is red chips. Once you start getting close to the table max, then you will definitely get heat.

My advice is to make sure you know what ROR you are playing with. Make sure you are playing the same way that you play on the computer. Make sure you are playing with indices. Those indices have really helped my play. I can't remember how many times I have doubled something that wouldn't have normally been doubled and came out ahead.

Also, I've sat down with 1500 dollars and lost all of it in 5 minutes so be prepared for that, too. I don't know how much you make a year but if you make more than 50 K a year, I would stay at your job. Do what you want but I have to tell you that blackjack found me, I really didn't find it.

should be a net plus for all high level players. If expenses are a drain on the bankroll then you don't have sufficient comp hustling skills. On my last few trips to Vegas the ev of my match plays, free bets, and cash coupons were far greater than the sum of my airfare, tips, and ground transportation. All rooms and meals are comped, of course. The value of mailers from near by casinos far exceeds the expenses of my travel to some places where there will be some out of pocket expense. Expenses should be a zero consideration for black chip players in the US. If you play abroad then you will have considerable expenses.

when the market is going to go up. If I know that I won't have to play blackjack at all:)

I don't mind well-meaning advice, even if it does sound a little patronizing. I will readily admit I am pretty new at this.

But this last post was a little extreme. I am a mathematician by trade and quite understand expected win rate and standard deviation. I figure a standard deviation of about 1.13 times my bet per hand. But my sessions have been quite long, and that lowers the standard deviation for the sessions somewhat. Without getting into the specifics of the calculations, I figure I am about one standard deviation above my expectation. Now, that's good cards, but far from incredible luck. Using a normal approximation, I will be that high about 16% of the time.

Guys, I will concede all you want on your knowledge of casino conditions. If you say I will start getting heat and have to pay differently, I readily accept that. It scares the bejesus out of me, and I'm sure I will screw up my cover, but live and learn. But please don't lecture me on the math. I graduated one of the top schools in the country with a degree in math concentrated in statistics, and am now an actuary. And I have studied the mathematics of blackjack at some length, including the variance. I know what size bankroll I need to avoid ruin, and I know what my variance is for any given number of hands.

If my hopes and dreams sound out of whack, it is because I don't understand the heat situation. Things are a lot different when you figure 2,000 hours vs. 500 hours, and a 10:1 spread instead of a 5:1 or less spread.

You wrote:

But this last post was a little extreme. I am a mathematician by trade and quite understand expected win rate and standard deviation. I figure a standard deviation of about 1.13 times my bet per hand. But my sessions have been quite long, and that lowers the standard deviation for the sessions somewhat.

I don�t think you understand how to compute standard deviation.
It is hard for me to believe that you are a �mathematician by trade�.

I would have to say NO way. A few years back there was a few unbelievable games in the mid-west. I mean unbelievable. When you make more money at the casino than you do at your regular job (you can probably guess) it makes you wonder. I don't hate my job (especially in June, July, and August) and don't know how much hatred you have towards your job. I want to make 2 important factual comments that you need to really think about before you quit your job. 1) BJ is difficult, mentally, physically, down-swings, pressure from family/friends/loved ones (who really care but just don't understand) besides those pit critters, dealers, the eye in the sky, and those continuous shuffle machines. This leads me to my 2nd point, the game itself can change in a few years. 6 to 5 blackjack, CS machines, cutting more than half a deck, barrings, and heaven knows what else the "bean counters" will dream up next. The games in the mid-west changed drastically (although you can still earn SOME money grinding it out). I for one am glad I never quit my job, especially now since it is nearing June. haha