system

Hi,

I have been playing for a full month under these conditions:

8 decks, 75% penetration, DA2, DAS, S17
$10 at counts of 0 or greater than -1
Stay out at counts less than -1
$25 at +1
$75 at +2
$150 at +3
$200 at +4 or higher

I played about 300 hours and made about $3000 in one month. I'm disappointed in the results, and think I should have made much more. I'm using hi/low. Any suggestions?

shin,

Sorry about the formatting... you have to scroll way, WAY down to see all the output. The "Custom" bets correspond to your betting schedule; the "Optimal" bets show the best betting schedule. You've been hitting your max bet too soon, so your Risk of Ruin is higher than it needs to be.

With your bet schedule, you should earn $28.21/hr (acually, per 100 hands seen), so in 300 hours, your expectation is to earn $8463. Your actual result of +$3000 is -0.54 Standard Deviations, which means your actual results are well within the expected range.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I guess you won't be too happy when you lose $5000 in your next 300 hours (or 20 hours) of play. You've played 10 hours a day for thirty straight days with a 20-1 spread. I sure hope you are moving around a lot. My suggestion to you is to not expect to make a full time living playing blackjack. The swings are tremendous in blackjack, long term winnings are not tolerated by many casinos, it is a grind to play full time, and you have a very small advantage over hundreds of billions of hands. Good luck.

Thank you so much, Dog Hand, for the analysis! I guess I just have to play longer for things to even out.

The report is very useful and will definitely help me. Thanks again!

Thanks for the advice. I will see how this goes first, I think your assessment is too pessimistic. I have been making decent money doing this, but you are right, the swings are extreme. I don't think you need to play billions of hands for the advantage to show. Maybe tens of thousands.

> I think your assessment is too pessimistic...I don't think you
> need to play billions of hands for the advantage to show. Maybe
> tens of thousands.

That�s a little optimistic. Based on Dong Hand�s analysis above it will take you about 43,000 hands to overcome 1 SD, about 173,000 hands to overcome 2 SDs and about 390,000 hands to overcome 3SDs. That�s 3,900 hours of play. During the next 300 hours you could still lose $12,000-$22,000 in a fairly normal swing of variance. You�re playing a strong game but the swings are huge and the long run is far. That�s just the nature of card counting. I wish you the best but hope that you�re prepared for the worst.

-Sonny-

I guess I just have to play longer for things to even out.

Your statement gives the impression that you expect to experience a period of greater than expected results to "even out" the past less than expected results.

While this may happen, it is not expected. The expected result does not change. What will happen, however, is that the past results will become insignificant as the number of outcomes increases.

I see, that makes a lot of sense. I always wondered how that worked.

I thought that if I experienced a losing streak, then I would eventually hit a winning streak to make up for it, as it was expected in the long run for me to win. Obviously, though the cards have no memory of my past experiences so the expectations do not change. Kind of discouraging, since I have had three losing sessions in the last few days.

Anytime you can end up on the top side, you shouldn't feel bad. I just dumped 320 units in 28.5 hours. In addition, I almost got into a fist fight with an a**hole who didn't like my jumping(wonging)into the middle of a couple shoes while he was on the table. Dealer BJ'd both times on my entry hands. :-)))))

Yeah, I guess I should consider myself fortunate for being up. Though I wish I could be up more.

That's the problem with wonging. Often, the dealer will get bj or show a ten as an upcard at high counts, making it seem like it's your fault. Then you have to deal with all the players bitching about you and how you changed the cards.

That's why I prefer to play the minimum, and then get out when it's
-1 or lower, usually right after the dealer makes a good hand. Then I just say, "I'm going to stay out for a while, see if I can change the cards." Of course, it's total BS, but it makes more acceptable to the players.

between card counters and commodities traders. Both groups think they have the moxie to beat their chosen game. The reality is that they all suffer from the same mental malady; They are all megalomaniacs and believe that they are a special breed of gambler. They will succeed where others fail because they will it for themselves. Forget about stupid card counting and just get a career. That's the best advice you will ever receive on this board, bar none.

Who are you? The Pope swinging from a rope? Maybe you are the guy for whom nearly got his azz beat.

Forget about stupid card counting and just get a career.

Why are you even posting on the site? Some of us here DO have the ability to beat our chosen game!

Any idiot that starts getting into my face when I wong in, is going to get it in return.

Maybe I misinterpret you. Want to try again?

My experience with neophyte card counters is that they know immediately whether or not its for them as soon as you hand them a deck of cards and a copy of Professional Blackjack and tell them to read it. I use that book for this purpose specifically because if it's dry, methodical approach. The light either goes on or it doesn't.

They should have called the new movie about card counters, "The Bonfires of the Vanities." It just fits that stereotype so well.