Success...

I just returned from one of the Indian (Calif.)casinos... the one by Sta. Barbara... Doubled my $$ in about 4 hours of play... went in w/ $400, left with $800... (I've never had a job that paid $100/ hour!) ... My observation is, that my point of playing while I'm sooo new at this is to get some "live fire" practice; in other words, counting while actually playing for money. While counting, I tracked where the 'hot' and 'cold' parts of the deck were and played accordingly.

I lost track of my count several times, picking it up at an estimate of where I lost it... I have some observations to make:

1) The larger the 'pack,' that is, the more decks there are in the shoe, the less critical it is to maintain an exact count. Anyone care to dispute this? It seems logical.

2) It SEEMS that there may be a counting system that tests for 10s, aces and low cards ONLY in the round before and after the one you are playing... in other words, you are tracking the part of the deck you are being dealt from, not the whole deck. That's how it seemed to me. Has anyone ever developed and/or used such a system?

3) Previously, when I played at tables with a $5.00 minimum bet, I played $5.00 until the count got high... high for me being greater than 8. THIS time I kept a 'standard' bet of $15.00... bet this when the running count was between -3 and +3... adjusted it accordingly but never got over $6.00. THIS seems to be a large part of my success, believe it or not... A newbie (like me) might think that playing the minimum bet is the way to save money, but actually, being able to adjust the 'standard' bet up & down made the difference.

4) I finally left when I saw 2 pit bosses BESIDES the one assigned to my pit, PLUS two security guards, loitering in the area. Not giving the hairy eye to me, mind you, just loitering. I got paranoid (perhaps from too much free caffeine?) and cashed in. (Besides, having been a security guard for the last 8 years, I KNOW what a bunch of knuckle-draggers some of THEM are!)

5) I'm GLAD I have a place (i.e., this forum) to brag!!! I don't care to tell anyone else I know, about my new 'hobby;'not family, friends or co-workers... the only people who can betray you (to the casino or to the IRS) are the people you trust!

I'd like any feedback anyone can give me re. the above observations & story.

great job, man. Judging from the amount of money you were betting, I think you might have misinterpreted the actions of the pit crew. I doubt they cared about you. You really weren't betting enough to raise any alarm. Keep in mind, that I doubt that a four hundred dollar profit is considered to be a lot of money to a casino.

If you want to make sure you stay in the black, I would read some good blackjack books and follow the advice, religiously.

I am a green chipper. You said you varied your standard bet. Not sure what you mean but if I started with a $25 bet and changed my bet to $75 when I felt like it, I would be a complete loser. Maybe I am misreading your message but it sounds like your win could be attributed to some luck.

I am not familiar with Indian casinos in Calif, but I don't think a 1 to 3 spread is enough to beat a 6 deck game. 1 to 3 isn't really enough to beat any game except single deck unless you wong, exclusively.

You won't always win. I have lost all of my money many times.

I increased the bet when my count was high, and decreased it when the count was low.

"Wong" excessively? I DO leave the table when the luck is bad, if that's what you mean. Low or negative count, keep losing hands I "should have" won, that kind of thing. But I've always played that way.

As far as the amount of money is concerned... I'm not (yet) trying to earn a living... I'll be happy just earning a few extra buck$ each month, to buy my toys, etc.

There are some good 6Ders here, but nothing that can be beaten with a 1-3. (I think only ES could allow that, and I havent heard of an ES game anywhere this decade in this country)

It is nice to pull in those chunky wins, but remember that was mainly luck. MM gave some great advice, stick to the systems that have been proven mathmatically. Devising your own can be difficult (since it's hard to find a legitimate system that is standing on ground not already tread on in the past 40 years) and very costly. My advice, if you think you got something, buy a good sim software and test it there. If you come in with a good EV and a decent SD, you may want to give it a shot. Otherwise, as MM said, buy the books (In my eyes, Thorp, Wong, Don S., Andersen and Snyder would be on the Mt Rushmore of blackjack) and follow them religously. Whatever you do, never get too excited after a big win, and try not to think of it as the end of the world after a big loss.

Good Luck.

D

"1) The larger the 'pack,' that is, the more decks there are in the shoe, the less critical it is to maintain an exact count. Anyone care to dispute this? It seems logical."

This is not true at all. The larger the deck, the less often a positive true count comes along. I have seen an hour or more go by without seeing the TC justify a max bet in a 6D game. Now if you are simply estimating when you forget the count and have no tendency to over or under estimate then you will still get the same number of max bets out. The problem is that the variance will be much higher. A 6D game already has a huge variance. Most new counters cannot mentally accept a "normal" variance of a large string of losses.

"2) It SEEMS that there may be a counting system that tests for 10s, aces and low cards ONLY in the round before and after the one you are playing... in other words, you are tracking the part of the deck you are being dealt from, not the whole deck. That's how it seemed to me. Has anyone ever developed and/or used such a system?"

This is pretty much known as casual counting. It is most effective in a SD game and not at all effective in a 6D game. It is good for practice but you cannot gain an advantage doing it with a 6 decker.

"3) Previously, when I played at tables with a $5.00 minimum bet, I played $5.00 until the count got high... high for me being greater than 8. THIS time I kept a 'standard' bet of $15.00... bet this when the running count was between -3 and +3... adjusted it accordingly but never got over $6.00. THIS seems to be a large part of my success, believe it or not... A newbie (like me) might think that playing the minimum bet is the way to save money, but actually, being able to adjust the 'standard' bet up & down made the difference."

It really does not make sense to keep your "standard" bet when you have a disadvantage. It is common practice (cover betting) to start the shoe off with a higher bet but if you lose and do not have an advantage you should be lowering your bet. To say that keeping your bet at 3 times the table min at a RC of -3 just to be able to lower it when it goes to RC -4 makes no sense. Trust me, it did not make a difference in your results. You will have a higher EV if you keep it at $5 unless you have an advantage. The only reason to do otherwise is to cover bet. Cover betting is not necessary spreading $5-$60.

"4) I finally left when I saw 2 pit bosses BESIDES the one assigned to my pit, PLUS two security guards, loitering in the area. Not giving the hairy eye to me, mind you, just loitering. I got paranoid (perhaps from too much free caffeine?) and cashed in. (Besides, having been a security guard for the last 8 years, I KNOW what a bunch of knuckle-draggers some of THEM are!) "

That was not heat, only paranoia.

I know you feel like you are pretty good making $100 an hour for 4 hours but please understand it was all luck. Your EV is about even right now. Maybe $2 an hour at best. It looks like you are enjoying the positive variance. I hope it continues. Enjoy the practice, comps, and get better. Read, practice, study!

kRis

I assume your logic is that the RC to TC is so much greater in a larger pack that a difference of 1 RC makes little difference in the TC. While this is true when there are many decks remaining it is a real problem as the shoe is dealt further. The 2 RC error is a 1/3 TC after the first round, but carrying that to the end of a 6/5 6D shoe it becomes a 2 TC error. This is a huge loss in EV or a huge gain in variance depending on how you handle your RC/TC errors.

Keeping this in mind I think it is still good live practice. I did it and still do. Sitting at the computer is boring and doesn't pay comps.

I hope this helps.

kRis

That even if you become the greatest counter in the world you are not guaranteed to win on a monthly or even yearly basis. I think this is the one myth that most newbies have. Also if you are over betting your bankroll you will go broke.

..which is why I point most newbies to the masters. All of what I consider the masters of the field take a realistic, some even pessimistic at times (Snyder) view of making long term money in this game. After reading most of the fundemental works that I could get my hands on, I adjusted my long term goal from "retirement and fulltime BJ in five years" to "Part time recreation and supplemental income for when I retire"...The masters have certainly saved me a whole lot of pain and suffering...not to mention countless others that listen to what they say about the swings of this game...

ahh what can I say...I have a Love/Hate relationship with BJ..

D

Sounds more like a gambling addiction... j/k... I do love the game (right now) and I AM practicing and honing my skills.... I have a 2-deck layout with 2 players on my coffee table. P'raps I should go to 6 players/6 decks? This is strictly to practice my counting and betting skills, you understand.

I wonder if anyone would like to get together for some practice games? No real ca$h exchanged, mind you, just trying to learn the trade. I'm in the LAX area.

Keep in mind that Basic Strategy expectation is explained without the draconian financial requirements necessary to make it work. If people would really be aware of the truth that the Basic Strategy will improve player�s game ONLY if one is able to dedicate enough money and time to make BS work.

Actually, Basic Strategy is mostly a con game. The only way basic strategy could insure that you will lose less is if you are willing to commit a tremendous amount of time and money to the game. Only a complete idiot would commit serious money and time playing basic strategy especially when it insures that you will end up losing anyway. Basic Strategy is worthless and even dangerous unless you are willing to commit lots of cash to the game. That is why the casinos know that 99.99% of the people that use Basic Strategy do not understand how much money it takes to make it work.

If you want to get into the business of blackjack, you better start practicing, studying a legitimate counting system strategy. I would recommend that you get started from the beginning with a balance counting system and use TC for playing and betting.

Your temporary success was pure luck. It happen with all of us. It just happen with me last weekend to hit a big score because of an extravagant amount of pure luck. I know that is just temporary, but it feels great.

Don�t you ever dream again that you can earn $100 per hour playing red chips for a business.

Best to you,
Geschaeftsfuehrer

..I guess love/hate is the wrong expression....I love BJ, I hate standard deviation:)

D