Streak/Lucky Ladies side bet

Dear Fellow Players,
I was curious as to the right time to bet the "streak and lucky ladies side bet". I am playing an 8 deck shoe. What true count would the "streak" side bet become profitable. The payout table is
Streak
Bet Pays Win Return Probability

2 3 0.225712 -0.097154
3 8 0.107234 -0.034898
4 18 0.050946 -0.032032
5 38 0.024204 -0.05605 as copied from the wizard of odds.

As noted the streak 4 is the best bet, would this mean that the streak bet of 4 would have a different true count than the streak bet of 2, as two has 3 times worse odds. Also the true count of when to take the lucky ladies bet. Thanks

I performed calculations for Lucky Ladies a few years ago. They can be found on Greenchip.

Thanks, however i am far more interested in the streak side bet...Any info on that bet?

matt 2,

If we concentrate on the "4" bet, it becomes an even-money proposition if we win 1 time out of 19 tries: we'll win 18 units on the win, and lose a total of 18 units on the 18 unsuccessful attempts. Thus, to make this an even-money bet, we'd need an overall probability of 1/19 = 0.0526315789...

Since we have to win four consecutive decisions, we'd need a winning probabilty of (1/19)^(1/4) = 0.4789736... per hand (not counting ties, of course). I checked an old sim for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game and found that the winning percentage (not including ties) reaches 48.12% at a HiLo TC of +2. For an 8D game, the results will probably be very similar.

However, this is for a player using regular HiLo strategy. I suspect that a strategy tailored to the Streak sidebet ("SHiLo", for Streak HiLo?) will provide better results. For example, say you've got $100 riding on the Streak "4" sidebet and $100 on your regular BJ wager, and you've won the previous three decisions. If you're holding A-2 vs. the dealer's 5, should you double down? B.S. says yes, but your chance of winning the hand (and, hence, $1800 on the sidebet) is higher if you hit rather than DD.

The optimal SHiLo strategy will thus depend on the ratio of your regular BJ wager to your Streak wager. I suspect the optimal strategy will also vary depending on how close you are to completing the Streak: the closer you are, the more conservatively you'll play.

Dog Hand

Some months ago, I did some analysis of the Streak sidebet. Here's a copy of a post I made on advantageplayer.com way back when:

For 3 in a row at 8:1, you need a win rate of (1/9)^(1/3) = .481 to be profitable.

For 4 in a row at 18:1, you need a win rate of (1/19)^(1/4) = .479

For 5 in a row at 38:1, you need a win rate of (1/39)^(1/5) = .481

(the 2 in a row bet at 3:1 is almost always a waste of time and money, since it require a TC of +14 to be profitable).

Derived from the stats at www.bjstats.com, here are the high-low decision numbers for the streak bet:

3 in a row: +6 or greater
4 in a row: +5 or greater
5 in a row: +6 or greater

If you reach the end of the shoe before your streak is decided, your streak continues with the first hand of the next shoe. Since this restarts the TC at 0, make sure there are enough cards left in the shoe before making any streak bet.

I hope that helps.
David

Dear David, and Dog Hand,
Your info has been extremely helpful of not only analyzing how to bet the streak side bet but also how the information was calculated; however i have been given mixed results. One says bet the streak side bet 4 at TC +2, the other TC +5. Which one is it? The rules I am playing are 8D S17, Double on any 2, Double after split is allowed. David what about for the 3, and 5, streak bet. Thanks again to both of you for your help it really means a lot to me. Take care.

matt 2,

Since David Spence is probably more accurate than I was on the TC's at which to bet, let's start by assuming his numbers are reasonable: that you'll need a TC of +5 or more to place the bet. I assume you'll be placing your max bet if the TC is +5 & up, so that simplifies things a bit.

First question: what is the ratio of your (single) Streak bet to your max bet? If you place more than one Streak bet simultaneously, are they all the same? For example, if your max bet is $100, and you place $5 each on the 3, 4, and 5 Streak bets, then tell me the ratio is 1/20 ($5/$100).

Second question: how are splits with double downs handled? According to information I saw on playing Streak in SD (see link below), if the player wins the majority of the splits, the Streak advances; if the house wins the majority, the Streak ends. Does doubling down affect this? Say you split 9's vs. the dealer's 5. The first 9 gets a 10, so you stand on 19. The second 9 gets a 2, so you DD and draw an Ace... that's what I always seem to get :-(. The dealer then draws to 18. Now you've won one of your split hands and lost the other, so is this a push for the Streak? Or is it a loss, since overall you've lost one bet? I ask because the SD info implies that this situation is a push (player won one wager and lost the other), but the Wizard of Odds appears to treat this a a loss (player's overall result for the hand was -1 bet).

Third question: if the player is dealt a BJ vs. the dealer's Ace, the player elects to take even money, and the dealer subsequently has a BJ of her own, does this advance the Streak, or is it simply a push? The SD info implies "push", and the WOO is mum on the subject, so I suspect "push" is the correct answer.

The reason I ask these questions is that the answers may have an effect on the optimum strategy for playing BJ+Streak. As I pointed out before, if your Streak bet is a significant fraction of (or even equal to or larger than) your BJ bet, you'll have to play more conservatively, especially on DD. As for splits, we may find that certain strange-looking splits might become B.S. For example, splitting 7's vs. an 8 might make sense, since if you don't split, your chances of winning with 14 vs. 8 are slim, but if you do split, your chances of getting an overall push (or even win) AND THUS PRESERVING (OR ADVANCING) YOUR STREAK BET(S) might make the split worthwhile. As for taking even money, if you can advance your Streak bet (or even win it) by doing so, then even money becomes much, MUCH more attractive.

Let me know these answers, and I'll see what I can determine.

Dog Hand

The TCs I gave for the streak bet (+5 for the three- and five-in-a-row, +4 for the four-in-a-row, and +14 for the two-in-a-row) are for the following rules: 6D, S17, DAS, LS. The LS part is the most significant, as you might surrender hands that have a chance of continuing your streak. If you plan on not surrendering at all if you have a streak bet out, which could be a reasonable strategy, the indices for the same rules are +2 for the three- and five-in-a-row, +1 for the four-in-a-row (at +1 it's borderline--using +2 might be better, and it's certainly better if H17), and +5 for the two-in-a-row.

My thought in using the more conservative, higher indices and still surrendering when warranted is that I don't want to be prevented from surrendering whenever the count is +1 or greater, precisely the times I'll have larger bets out and when surrender might be particularly valuable. Also, as Don Schlesinger pointed out, LS is especially good for card counters, not only for its effect on e.v. but also for its reduction of s.d.. Streak, on the other hand, increases s.d. and is not a very important part of a winning game, even at tables where it's offered.

That being said, I still don't surrender if I've already made a streak bet at the +4 or higher count and have already won at least one hand towards the streak. Saving half a unit at such counts but giving up a potential 8, 18, or 38 units doesn't seem to be a good play, but this is just a guess. I think much more complicated analysis would be necessary to come up with the optimal strategy departures, including those for LS, when a streak bet has been made.

David