Anybody know the minimum TC index number that would provide possitive EV to a player who holds a stiff while the D shows a 5 or 6 as an up-card?
is; recently I was on 2D and had a TC very high to support two max bets. The cards came out and I got an A/8 and a stiff 10/3. The other player was delt only one card which was a 9. D showed a 6. The TC was 18. The PC was called over to make a decision on what to do. They gave the guy another card. It was a 10. Now with my count (AOII), the TC is 16. The PC asks me if I want to play my hands. I opted to back out of the stiff and I doubled the A/8 (which gave them something to raise their eyebrows over). Dealer had a 10 under and busted with another 10.
I was wondering if mathematically I should have chosen to stay in with the stiff. I assume the count wasn't high enough to hang in with it.
You played it correctly. Bravo !
Against a 6 the break even point is TC+12. At TC+18,the player has already an 8% advantage.
I agree that you don't get these situations very often but Stealth Bomber should have left his stiff in play.
Against a 5 the break-even point is already at +10.
Francis Salmon
From my CA-program.When a prominent poster asks this question, it usually means that BJ-literature doesn't deliver the answer to a problem but in this case this really surprises me.It's not that difficult to figure out.The bust probability rises gradually with a higher TC and from 42% to 50% it's not such a long way.
Francis Salmon
His decision to not play the hand at all means he had no risk or variance. Standing with a stiff hand vs a dealer stiffer hand, with a big bet on the table (high TC) will end up having a significant variance. I'm not sure that what he did, given the option to just back out of the hand completely, was that wrong, IMHO...
hands on very high counts seem to go south for me more than hands with more reasonable (and normal) high counts such as +8 or so...
Just an opinion of course... A simulation will probably show wild variance, with a slight player edge over the long run...
However, given that exact circumstance, I was probably scrutinized some for doubling the soft 19. Had I also stood on the stiff with a giant bet out there, I might as well have just written "COUNTER" on my forehead. I did seriously considere standing because of the high C. I paused a moment while thinking about my option. But when I looked up at the D and the PC just glaring at me wondering what the hell am I thinking, I realized I couldn't leave my stiff hand sit there when they are giving me the option to pull it back. If I left ride, and smoke them for all the $ I had on the table, I would have certainly had to walk out the door for being successful after such an aggressive play.
I don�t think whether or not you play the hand will cause them to think you are a counter. First, the Boss probably has no idea what the correct decision. Second, many counters don�t what the correct decision is.
I think a lot of relatively good BS players do not what the BS is for this situation. I bet most of them think that they are in a strong position against a 6, even with a stiff.
Doubling the soft 19 shows you as a knowledgeable player, and may bring more heat. But the stiff decision won�t.
... (which can be downloaded from bjmath.com) calculates that the expectation for 13 v. 6 becomes slightly positive at TC +13, with an expectation of about 7% at +18. That's pretty close to your numbers, considering that the deck is an approximation (and less accurate at extreme counts).
That's running for 2 decks, and Markowitz says:
"To approximate a finite number of decks, I first remove the dealer's upcard and player's cards, if known, from a finite deck. I then adjust cards' frequencies in proportion to their point count values. Finally, I assume I have an infinite deck of the resulting composition. (This is what Stanford Wong did to estimate strategy numbers for a finite deck)."
(The program doesn't display actually expections, btw -- just the strategy tables -- but I got those numbers by setting a debug breakpoint in the hit( ) function and looking at the expectations returned by the standing_value( ) function.)
Stealth,
Many ploppies seem to think the dealer usually busts with a six. I bet if you surveyed random ploppies, they'd assign a probability of .7 or better to this. Many would keep the bust hand. Hell, I've seen ploppies double 5s and 6s against a 6, but I've never seen one double a soft 19 (even in SD).
That being said, in my humble opinion you made the correct play relative to your circumstances. You didn't know the departure index, so you played BS on the bust hand. You knew the index on the soft 19, so you played it accordingly. You then went out to learn from the experience, so that next time you'll make the optimal index play.
I've seen ploppies double 5s and 6s against a 6, but I've never seen one double a soft 19 (even in SD).
This is very true and I've seen it many times also. However, I'm sure that after 20 minutes of play, they have already sized me up as being a "very good" player. Therefore, doubling the soft 19 will only add some additional concern and attention. But also standing and staying in the game while holding a stiff after doubling the soft 19 could mean that I'm either a crazy player or a pro. I don't think it would lead them to believe I'm just a typical average ploppy. After a play like that, I then have to act as a crazy wild player the rest of the session.
Therefore, doubling the soft 19 will only add some additional concern and attention. But also standing and staying in the game while holding a stiff after doubling the soft 19 could mean that I'm either a crazy player or a pro.
My input was just a guess on the reaction of the pit. I'm sure we all have our guesses about what would happen. I think we both know the ploppy play -- keep the stiff and stand on the soft 19. Anything different will attract attention. I do think you made the proper play under the circumstances.
That being said, I tend to believe that keeping the stiff while doubling the soft 19 would look more natural, as you'd look like you were playing a hunch that the dealer would bust. If you were worried about heat, skipping the double-down would be a consideration, as that was the attention-getting play. As for the stiff, since you didn't know the index for keeping it, you really would have been playing a hunch. That's why I think you made the right play.
I do have one idea. I like to carry a basic strategy card for SD DOA DAS (printed from blackjackinfo.com). That way, I can justify many oddball plays like that one (You could make the double and then take out the card to "verify" that it was the right play. Then lament that the double was "proper" against a 6 but not a 5). Rarely take it out, claiming you don't wish to slow down the game. If they try to tell you your card is somehow incorrect, act like the version they have is the "casino version", and is designed to give the casino the edge.
