Starting Out - Still Worth It? And Time vs. Return

I will leave it for the more experienced players to take it from here.

My opinion is that luck in the short term is significant while skill will overcome all in the long run. I do not base my play on luck, merely observe that cards do not always play out the way I want them to. I realize my opinion has no effect on the cards yet to be played. I play shoe games because I have to, and I base my betting strategy on my strong belief in counting and the ROR I can live with. Having learned 22 indices, I will only deviate from the recommended play with a risk-averse bias if the pivot is indefinite. I will continue to relate my bet size to the EV of each hand even if I am losing. I will call my losses, if I played correctly, attributable to standard deviation. The cards come out at random in a fairly shuffled pack. As I learn more about this game, I hope to become proficient enough to relegate the word 'luck' to the trash bin. In the interim, I use a session bankroll that I will not be devasted in losing, since my perception is that 'good cards' may not be part of the program on any given night. More often than not, the duration of my play is predetermined before I start. If I have an unusual opportunity, I will chase it around the block until I wear it out or the opportunity ends. If I am tired or have some other good reason to leave the game, I get up and go. The conditions in the Midwest are pretty predictable, so it is my opinion that the same game will still be there tomorrow.

Please feel free to educate me on these or any other points of interest. I am not being contentious in this offer. I have obviously not solved this game to my satisfaction, yet.

Regards,

scobee

Playing is F** because of the variance.

We'll check with you in ten years and see if you still feel that way.

ETF

Not every game at every casino is completely set up to take advantage of the suckers.

WTF do you think they're set up for, then? To divert excess profits to the beloved card counters? Sorry, pal, you live in a dream world.

But skill can NOT control luck that has turned against you.

You need a vacation from those horrid midwest casinos....

Tunica, Reno, and Las Vegas all have a few reasonably fair games...if you can keep from being barred.. :-)

Small players like us often enough have our action faded.

BTW, thanks for yet another three-letter acronym to add to my collection....I get it. and the dreamers shall inherit the earth. That would be my planet of choice.

scobee

Do you really think it will take that long for me to get 'the message?'

I was thinking I will probably be sick of the swings of variance in less than two years. Maybe then I will take up hang-gliding where the unpredictable winds can take you soaring for hours before they dash you on the rocks.

I am flattered that you think I could last that long... :-)

scobee

don't believe in luck. All you need is the skill that math gives
"THEM."

Really, if that were the case Wizard and some others would take early retirement and play "full time".

But then again even if they only played part time you would think they would have no mortgage, car payments, or notes of any kind...HMMM.

Why with all that *extra* money, they should be livin in phat city.

The way I see it is if you really believe in the theory that much to expound your "religion" to others, you should take the ultimate leap of faith to "full time".

I don't mean "full time" with a wifey that works full time for the beenies and credit.....no way...gotsta be out on your own, big fellas.

Scobee 1 wrote "It is generally concluded that you should only bet 1% of your bankroll for your maximum bet for a 13.5% ROR, and work backwards from there. This is the meaning of a 'full Kelly' betting matrix as I understand it, without re-sizing as your bankroll fluctuates."

My understanding of full Kelly is that you bet 73% of your advantage X your BR for one hand and 56% for each of two hands. I do not understand the term to imply a maximum limit of 1% of your bankroll. Also, I thought that the 13.5% ROR for no re-sizing was only true if you ALWAYS bet the proper Kelly amount (which would mean no bet for negative or slightly positive TC's, in other words wonging in and out). Am I mistaken on these points (highly possible)?

Even when I go to the archives here and on BJMath I still have no absolute clarity about Kelly criteria.... although your percentages I have not seen before. They may be correct as well, but one thing I do know is that people like Bootlegger, DD', and ET Fan can surely do a better job explaining it than I can.

If I left out other math wizards, I assure you that it was unintentional. As I said earlier, I have not solved this game to my satisfaction by any stretch of the imagination. I do know that once you cross the threshold of 1% of bankroll as your maximum bet, your advantage slithers away because of variance. Many opinions have been voiced on what constitutes your authentic bankroll, so that area too is a bit nebulous. I do know what $$ make me shiver when I push them into the box, but that is a personal decision for me based on my perceived bank. Recent discussions on another board make me think that you should stick to your predetermined max bet despite what might be monstrously positive EV hands coming at you. As you well know, the advantage you calculated in your favor as the cards came out does not influence the sequence of the remaining cards dealt.

scobee

Tunica, Reno, and Las Vegas all have a few reasonably fair games...if you can keep from being barred..

And you REALLY believe they do this in an effort to be "fair." I can't even respond. You've lost all ability to reason.

Interested in some swamp land in Florida?

ETF

Your definition of "Kelly betting," is the mathematically valid definition (although it's actually only a fairly accurate approximation), and the one that J. L. Kelly himself would approve. There is a conflicting definition that has arisen because of the influence of a certain popular pundit. Set your preferences to about six months, and search for a reply I made to The Mayor on this topic.

ETF

about ready to go bust, according to your sources. I might want to wait a while for that prime Florida water-front property. Might get a better price in a year's time. Would you hold the note for me?

I did say "reasonably fair' only in terms of game rules.

I think without competitive pressures the only games we would get would be 8 deck shoes with 3 decks cut off. Matt says we can come play his lousy games at Bay Mills anytime we want....come one, come all. You can play with half the pack and double on tens, no DAS. Wouldn't you rather play at Horeshoe in Tunica?

If you want to quote me, try the one where I said, "If there ever is anything 'right' or 'fair' about casino practices, please let me know. I am not holding my breath. "

For someone who "can't respond", it seems to me you still have a lot of ammo left in that gun belt. Throw another salvo at the critters, but please give me a chance to get out of the way as a courtesy before I become just a statistic in a government chart.

It seems to me that once I decided to try to conquer this game and accepted the variance and small edge, I pretty much gave up any claims I might have had to being reasonable anyway.

scobee

me that you can't win without it. I was glad to have it when it lived
with me for 33 years. Sure like to have it back.

about personal tolerance for large bets. I use the betting strategies per Don S in BJA and through some messages that we traded on BJ Math. Lately, I have been getting hammered and am thinking of adjusting my bets down below Don's guidance because of this personal comfort issue, at least until my luck turns around. Gosh, I hope that things have not gone permanently sour for me like they have for Frank S. It really would suck to go 10-20 years without winning a double down, etc.

By the way, the percentages I used for 1 and 2 hands of Kelly were based on the formula shown in PBJ which involves the variance.

I admire Frank too, in some ways. When I have a BIG negative fluctuation... I go home and WORK on my game. Try to find out what weaknesses are present... search this board (and of course your site) for info that I can put to use. Frank doesn't have to be worried with that. It was just "bad luck" and it can all begin anew, tommorrow!