When dealt a 15 or 16, why do the BJ books say to hit when 8 cards will bust a 16 while 7 will bust a 15 (plus the A will give you a 16. I always stand on 15 or 16 (except vs. A) and seem to win more of these hands than not. Thanks for any comments
You will lose less money if you hit.
Boot Leather
When dealt a 15 or 16, why do the BJ books say to hit when 8 cards will bust a 16 while 7 will bust a 15 (plus the A will give you a 16. I always stand on 15 or 16 (except vs. A) and seem to win more of these hands than not. Thanks for any comments
First of all, blackjack is a game of mathematics, not feelings. Do not use prior experience to determine how to play hands. You probably haven't played all possible scenarios and, even if you have, your memory will be faulty.
These plays have been exhaustively analyzed and the correct play is to hit 15 or 16 against 7 or higher (if surrender is available, surrender 16 vs 9, 10, or A and 15 vs 10). There are some card-dependent exceptions, but don't sweat them as the difference in expected value in these cases is very small. The rule of thumb for hard hands is continue hitting agaisnt a dealer 7 or higher until you
reach 17.
If you want a logical argument, you first have to understand that you will proabably lose these hands no matter what you do. If you hit, you will probably bust, but if you stand, the dealer will probably make his hand. When you stand, your only hope is that dealer busts. Hitting gives you a better chance of exceeding the dealer's total.
The case for hitting is stronger against dealer's 7 or 8 than for 9, 10, or A, since your chance of getting a betting hand is greater. For example, if you have 15 and get a 3, you will probably beat dealer's 7, but will probably still lose against a 10. (Nonetheless, you still hit.)
