Splitting 10's

First... a little of my background. I became interested in Blackjack in the early 80's when the Hotel that I was working at hosted a workshop on "Winning at Blackjack". They charged $199 for each participant but I was privy to the seminar for free as I was in charge of setting up the room for the function and, of course, looking out for the needs of the teachers as they were staying in the Hotel for a number of days. I don't remember the names of who they were, but I never forget a face. Maybe it is some of the guys I see posting on this site!

Anyway... they covered the basic strategy and then into counting cards. I never was much of a gambler, still not. I mostly am a chess player and a sometimes pool hustler. No serious money, but to me it was NOT gambling as I won more than I lost and the skill of my average opponent was poor.. That is what brought me back to Blackjack ! !

I have decided to try a stab at playing since I live only an hour or so from Tunica. I have brushed up on basic strategy, which I am pretty confident with and after researching the alternatives, settled on KO Blackjack for counting. I like the unbalanced nature, which is facinating for me from a "theory" point of view. I will only make 8 to 10 trips a year for fun, but want to have a good chance at the win. My "bankroll", if you can call it that will be about $300 to $500 per trip. I want the chance to turn it in $1,000 or more, or LOSE IT ALL.

I have a computer blackjack program that I practice on that I manage pretty well. I play with six decks, S17, DAS and 75% penetration. That brings me (finally) to a couple of questions.

1) Can I find this sort of game in Tunica?

2) What should be my best bet spread to attempt the goal of a $1,000 win? I will be playing for only 4-6 hours a trip, and don't mind losing it all, but don't want to be broke in the first hour.

3) I intend to backcount some but mostly playall and change tables on bad counts. I do drink (only beer) and I can handle that for the short duration of my trips. Cover is my biggest concern. Can I be barred or get preferential shuffles if I am losing at the game? Or is that only a problem when I'm winning?

4) In my computer simulations, I have had great success at splitting 10's against a dealer 5 or 6 when the count is high. I have seen several comments that this is NOT recommended because of the heat. But, what if I split 10's frequently, even on some low counts at the beginning of the shoe? Does this "kill" any advantage from doing so at high counts? Or has my good fortune in my practice "skewed" my expectantcy in the "real world"?

5) Another thought.... if, near the end of my trip, and I am not ahead, and the count IS high, can I get away with incredible bet spreads just long enough to get some big money bet at the tables? Again, I realize the potential loss factor, but if I'm near even, can't I just make 3 to 4 large bets (at good counts) as a parting gesture?

Any suggestions will be appreciated from you blackjackers out there. Thanks in advance...

In answer to your question about playing conditions in Tunica, 75% penetration is fairly common for 6D games. So is DAS. A few places used to offer S17, but I have noticed that that has fairly universally dried up. I just checked Trackjack, and the only place listed that offered S17 was Sam's Town. They have 2&6D. I have never played at that casino. Hope that helps.
-T-

but I'm not aware of ST Tunica offering S17. They do also offer SD, in addition to the DD & 6D you mentioned.

Only place in Tunica w/ S17 that I know of is the Grand 6D shoes.

If I understand quark right, he wants to bet small enough for $300-500 to last 4-6 hrs (I assume you want to play more than a couple of hands per hour), big enough to have a shot at turning it into $1000, all while drinking beer? Not an impossibility, but good luck... you'll need a lot of it.

Btw, don't worry about heat. Your action at those levels & conditions will be welcome anywhere.

"I will only make 8 to 10 trips a year for fun, but want to have a good chance at the win. My "bankroll", if you can call it that will be about $300 to $500 per trip. I want the chance to turn it in $1,000 or more, or LOSE IT ALL."

2) "What should be my best bet spread to attempt the goal of a $1,000 win? I will be playing for only 4-6 hours a trip, and don't mind losing it all, but don't want to be broke in the first hour."

I certainly hope that you mean $1000 cumulative for the "8 to 10 trips a year," and not $1000 per trip.

With a "bankroll" of "$300 to $500 per trip," you will be overbetting even at red chip levels. Going "broke in the first hour" is a very real possibility.

Assuming the 6D game you describe above, and a $5 unit, a 1-12 spread, and an optimum betting ramp (IRC=-20, start increasing bet at -4, reach max bet (12 units or $60) by +4), you could expect to average about $10 per hour. However, even assuming a $500 trip bank and only 4 hours of play, you have a 26.6% chance of going broke before the 4 hours is up. Increase playing time to 6 hours and you are looking at 35%. Decrease your trip bank to $300 and it gets really ugly.

A better plan might be to spread 1-4 on some of the excellent single deck games that can be found in Tunica.

(Numbers generated on John Auston's excellent Blackjack Risk Manager 2000 - highly recommended.)

Furthermore, this assumes perfect play, and that you can find a S17 game with a $5 min in Tunica. If you're drinking beer, your play will not be perfect.

"4) In my computer simulations, I have had great success at splitting 10's against a dealer 5 or 6 when the count is high. I have seen several comments that this is NOT recommended because of the heat. But, what if I split 10's frequently, even on some low counts at the beginning of the shoe?"

Don't split 10's unless the count calls for it. You cannot afford this sort of "cover". Actually, splitting 10 at all is probably a bad idea when you are underbankrolled, as the increase in EV comes with a sizeable price tag in terms of variance. In other words, you're more likely to go broke if you split 10's.

"5) Another thought.... if, near the end of my trip, and I am not ahead, and the count IS high, can I get away with incredible bet spreads just long enough to get some big money bet at the tables?"

You need to make a decision - do you want to be an advantage player or a gambler? An advantage player calculates an optimum bet ramp based on the game and his bankroll and sticks to it. A gambler does the sort of thing you are describing.

All those fine casinos were paid for by gamblers.

Thanks... What is Trackjack? A web site, or software, or ?

"I certainly hope that you mean $1000 cumulative for the "8 to 10 trips a year," and not $1000 per trip."

Actually, I mean to attempt to LEAVE with $1,000 per trip. (Stop laughing) For instance... Let's say I take $500 and walk into a casino. Place the whole wad on ONE hand and only play BS. (OK... maybe not quite that much to leave room for splitting and doubling) Then I would have a "near" 50-50 chance of doubling to that $1,000 or going home broke. But where's the fun? PLUS, if I were to continue doing that, the casino advantage would catch up with me even if I did win for a while.

If I were to add counting (and I could do it reasonably well), *I* should have the long term advantage, and any losses along the way would be made up for eventually. Right?

"With a "bankroll" of "$300 to $500 per trip," you will be overbetting even at red chip levels. Going "broke in the first hour" is a very real possibility."

I'm not rich by any means, but I have access to much larger amounts of money. To be honest, I don't care to risk that much playing Blackjack. For instance, I sometimes take fishing trips and other fun outings that require $300 to $500 and I am GUARANTEED to come back home with nothing.

"A better plan might be to spread 1-4 on some of the excellent single deck games that can be found in Tunica."

I have considered the advantages of SD and am glad to hear I might find that in Tunica. I just don't think I'm ready for that yet. Counting under those situations seems tougher for me at this point. Plus, I have heard that KO is not all that great at single deck.

"Furthermore, this assumes perfect play, and that you can find a S17 game with a $5 min in Tunica. If you're drinking beer, your play will not be perfect."

I know Basic Strategy COLD! Maybe not all the differing variations for the different games, but pretty close. I think I could manage that even drunk as a mop. Counting, which is still new to me is another story. However... I'm not a big drinker, probably would only have 6-7 beers during a 4-5 hour stay. I'd have a "buzz", but that would be it.

"Actually, splitting 10 at all is probably a bad idea when you are
underbankrolled, as the increase in EV comes with a sizeable price tag in terms of variance. In other words, you're more likely to go broke if you split 10's."

Good Point... I hadn't considered that. So my good luck at splitting 10's against my program has just been lucky then? Not likely to continue?

"A gambler does the sort of thing you are describing.
All those fine casinos were paid for by gamblers."

True... but some of those gamblers win! If I could attain a positive EV (expected value??) then I would "eventually" come out ahead instead of the inevitable "gambler's" method, right? I may go broke a lot of times, but IF I play a winning game...

Thanks for your insights. You seem very dedicated to the game and I'm sure you are right. I'm just looking for a way to "gamble" WITH THE EDGE.

It's an interactive system keeping updates of bj conditions on all casinos in the world. It is available through RGE to Blackjack Forum subscribers for beta testing. Subscriptions will be offered later.

If the notes you have been posting are factual, I don't want to wish you bad luck, but you are going to need all the good luck you can get. Methinks you are going to lose mucho rapidimente.