1%+ EV about 4% Frequency
Here is a copy of my final post from the other message board. As I recall, I also calculated a count that did not need to be trued up, kind of a KO count. But all of this is mute with the $50 limit. Also poor penetration truly hurts as most of the best situations occur deepest in the deck. Some as high as 30+%. Here is the post:
I keep working this problem.
My first count for the 21+3 side count required 6 counts, or catching only 1/6th of the profitable opportunites. This count is better. It requires 4 counts, or catches 1/4th of the profit.
The 21+3 side bet is profitable when the suits in the deck are out of balance. It should be obvious that if the deck consisted entirely of a single suit, the player would win with 100% certainty as any three card combination is a guaranteed flush. Imagine, a 900% expected return. SWEET
Here are the mechanics. Pick a suit. I recommend watching the first round and picking the suit that has the fewest cards dealt. Count each card of that suit as a -1. And count every four cards dealt (regardless of suit) as a +1. The best opportunities occur when the deck is heavy in a suit, this is why I recommend picking the suit with the fewest cards dealt on the first round.
Divide your running count by the remaining decks to get your true count. If your true count is -5 or less, or +4 or greater, take the 21+3 side bet.
With a four counter team, each member could count an assigned suit. This would find every "findable" profitable opportunity. But even a lone counter can track a single suit as a side count. The opportunities this count finds are much more profitable than any additional information an ace side count provides. Also, this count is a great cover. Imagine dropping a purple chip on what the pit boss thinks of as a sucker's bet. You may have a 10%+ advantage, but he will never bother you again.
Here are the counts, frequencies, and player advantages assuming penetration to the 52nd card:
Count____________Freq_____________Advantage
+4_______________2.47%____________1.26%
+5_______________0.90%____________5.13%
+6_______________0.34%____________9.19%
+7_______________0.13%___________14.13%
-5_______________2.23%____________1.82%
-6_______________0.76%____________4.87%
-7_______________0.24%____________8.44%
All Profitable counts
_________________4.06%____________3.65%