Soft doubling and the effect on SCORE / Sharpe ratio

I believe that Don mentioned in BJA3 that ignoring soft doubling rules really doesn't hurt your expected return very much.  It occurred to me that soft doubling probably increases your volatility and therefore may hurt your SCORE / Sharpe ratio.

So if I ignore soft doubling, does my SCORE go up or down?

Same question for always taking "even money" when I'm dealt a blackjack and the dealer is showing an Ace.

You're not being clear about what you mean by "soft doubling rules."  What I said was that knowing soft doubling indices isn't worth very much (the most valuable being A,8 vs. 5 and 6).  That's not the same thing as saying not to soft double at all, which I think you're implying.  If you ignore soft doubling altogether, your SCORE will most certainly go down.

If you insure all your blackjacks, that will cost you, on average, almost 4% (flat betting), so surely not a very good idea.  You don't state if this is part of a counting approach or not.

Don

 

Wow, I was really unclear.  Sorry Don!!

I'm referring to the "camoflage for the basic strategist and card counter" tables on p99 of BJA3.

I'm pretty sure this concerns BS and doesn't bring in indices at all.  For instance, deviating from BS for A8 vs 6 costs only 0.11 cent/$100 bet (in an absolute sense -- part of this is because the hand is so rare.)

Now compare two players who are counting cards (with no indices):
1. Player 1 plays BS and varies his bet using HiLo counting.
2. Player 2 does the same EXCEPT that he never doubles on A8 vs 6.

It is entirely possible that player 2 has a higher SCORE.  After all, doubling on A8 vs. 6 certainly bumps up your standard deviation quite a bit and you get very little gain in the way of EV.  (Doubling on A8v6 probably draws some heat too.  Ploppies certainly don't make this play.)

Now has anyone actually studied this?  Does player 2 actually have a higher SCORE?

Now let's introduce player 3:
3. Player 3 player BS and bets just like player 1 EXCEPT that he never soft doubles!

You say on p100 that ignoring soft doubling costs about 10 cents/$100 bet.  Now that's not nothing, but again there would be a big reduction in standard deviation.

Of players 1, 2, and 3, who has the highest SCORE?

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I was really unclear about my insurance question.  You point out that insuring your blackjacks costs about 4%.  But this also comes with a reduction in standard deviation.  So what is the net effect on SCORE?  What if I change it so that I insure blackjacks whenever TC>1 (for instance)?

This whole topic really fascinates me!

 

All you've really done with all of the above points is explain the concept of risk-averse indices, on which I have a whole section, in chapter 13.  None of your questions can be answered unless or until you enunciate a bet spread and ramp for a particular game (whose rules need to be specified in great detail).

You can't use the BJA3 charts you allude to for a counter who spreads, because all the doubles you discuss become much more valuable as the count increases and the bet increases proportionally.  So, if you don't use r-a indices, and you make all the doubles at the e.v.-maximizing indices, instead, your SCORE will, indeed, be lower than if you were to use r-a indices.  But no, absolutely not, your SCORE will not be higher if you don't soft double at all, instead of using r-a indices.  That just wouldn't make any sense.

Same type of answer for the insurance question.  Insuring naturals lowers variance -- that's a given.  But, it also loses money at Hi-Lo TC of +1, so again, you would have to simulate your precise betting ramp to see what SCORE would be by insuring more frequently (and, therefore, incorrectly).  The reason studies like these aren't common is because they produce different answers for each of the conditions that prevail for every one of the charts in chapter 10 ... and more!

Don
 

Thanks for the thorough reply, Don.  I'm reading over chapter 13 now to refresh my memory.

I also downloaded a simulator so that I can experiment with some of this stuff on my own.

Taking even money hurts a BS player. But, it has less of an effect on counters as it’s the correct play when you are betting more and the situation occurs more often at higher counts.