Side Bet @ Copa

The Copa in Gu'fport, MS, has a side bet which I think may be countable.

But I need someone down there to scout it out for me to give me the payoffs so I can run the numbers.

The bet is whether or not your initial hand will total 20.

There is one payout for a plain vanilla 20.

A higher payout for a "matched 20," whatever that is (the little game card shows an A9 as the example for this).

A still higher payout for a suited 20 (e.g., J & K of clubs).

A 250-1 payout for two Queens of Hearts, and

A 1000-1 payout for 2 QH and the dealer has a snapper.

Again, if someone down there could scout out the exact payouts and let me know what a "matched 20" is, I can run the numbers and see if there's any TC which will give this bet a favorable expectation.

This sounds like the Lucky Ladies sidebet, or a clone of it. The Wizard of Odds has done a study of it:

Sentry

The initial house edge is more than 17%. It would require a specialized count and the positive EV opportunities would be extremely rare. I have seen some analyses on this game and have also done some simple analysis myself, and really do not believe that it would be worth your time or effort, IMHO.

OldCootFromVA,

To answer your query, the Lucky Ladies side bet at the C*pa pays as follows:
Q of hearts pair & dealer has BJ: 1000 to 1
Q of hearts pair: 125 to 1
Matched 20 (same rank and suit): 19 to 1
Suited 20: 9 to 1
Unsuited 20: 4 to 1

The limits are $1-$10, but the maximum payout is $5K, so if you bet more than $5 and hit the big one, you won't actually get 1000 to 1.

The LL side bet is available only on their DD game. They always have one such table open, and at busy times they open a second table.

Be forewarned that the C*pa also has numerous other side bets (nearly every BJ table has one), so be sure to select the correct table!

Dog Hand

I performed the calculation two years, which is in the greenchip archives. More useful would be to search for posts during May 2002 so you can view the entire thread.

Thanks to all for the responses.

It's off to the Green Chip archives, I guess.

I found your post in the archives, but find it was done with 6 decks.

Do you still have the program?

If so, could you either run it for 2 decks w/55% pen; or email me the source code if I supply you with my email address?

TIA,

The Old Coot

I found your post in the archives, but find it was done with 6 decks.

This is why I recommended you follow the thread. Here is a link to the original post, which has the entire thread way at the bottom. (You will need greenchip membership.)

http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi?read=46397

After making my last post, I wrote and ran my own program, using 55% pen instead of your 75%, using payoffs of 1000:1, 125:1, 19:1, 9:1 and 4:1.

The numbers I get are a bit different from yours, probably due to the difference in penetration. Also, I didn't do the TCs in 0.5 steps but in 1.0 steps, and my results show an average increase in EV of a little less than 4% per floored TC increment.

Of the results that matter, I get:

+8 2,962,643 -27,242 -0.92%
+9 1,625,861 +69,916 +3.03%.

Ergo, by extrapolation, a (floored) TC of 8.5 would seem to be the lowest point where making the bet is worthwhile.

Thank you very much for your help.

As rare as TCs of +8.5 or more occur, it's still a nice dream to have a shot at a 5000:5 payoff every once in a while.