Show About Dr. Thorp on the History Channel

This episode of Breaking Vegas will be re-airing September 15th at 10 AM and 4 PM EDT.

Professor Blackjack

From Thorp's initial research to the partnership's explosive effect on the blackjack landscape, this episode boasts fascinating facts about the game's history, colorful interviews (including with Thorp), and archival footage that evokes the timeless allure and excitement of the thriving casinos in the early `60s.

http://208.109.99.196/content/JessMarcumEarlyDaysofCardCounting.htm

to a casino how to bring down a whale. He must have been very proud of himself.

Did you read this near the end of the article?

He described the whole thing rather succinctly to me. He said that in winning the first $6 million, the Whale had simply not played enough hands (700) to have a high probability of losing. Therefore, Jess advised the Trump people to just �let him play�. Although they were very nervous about following this advice, they did and ultimately the Whale lost $9.4 million.

>" Johnston provides a realistic insight into the working of Jess�s mind as Jess combines his mathematical prowess with his (self-taught) psychiatric skill to harpoon the Whale.

In view of these extensive previous accounts of this episode, I am only going to summarize briefly Jess�s part in it. He described the whole thing rather succinctly to me. He said that in winning the first $6 million, the Whale had simply not played enough hands (700) to have a high probability of losing. Therefore, Jess advised the Trump people to just �let him play�. Although they were very nervous about following this advice, they did and ultimately the Whale lost $9.4 million.

I learned from the written accounts cited above that there were two key components to Jess�s analysis of this problem. First, he calculated that if the Whale could be enticed into playing 5000 hands or so, he would have only about a 15% chance of winning. However, since the Whale made a practice of quitting suddenly if he was winning significantly, a scheme was needed to ensure that he would not quit early. Based on observing the Whale�s mannerisms at the gaming table, Jess concluded that the Whale would readily agree to a double-or-nothing rule; that is, play would end only when the gambler had either doubled his bankroll or lost it all. Jess calculated that the Whale was 5 times as likely to lose his bankroll as he was to double it."<

Never let a casino decide how you are going to play. Stick to your game plan.

It's been a little while since I read the article thoroughly.

I think I'll re-read it later today.

There was, as Paul Harvey often says, "the rest of the story". He pointed out that the whale needed to play more, but then he was also involved in helping the casino to make this happen. All the way to the "double or nothing" suggestion I think which is really what led to the guy's losing over $9M at the end.

I don't think this is something we'd (you, myself, others here) would consider doing, period. I would certainly have suggested "just let him play and you will win it back and then some, period." As that is what we all want. Just to be left alone and "let us play..." :)

The "whale" must have been an idiot to not have alarm bells ringing when the casino said "hey, come on back, we want to play but we are adding a double-or-nothing rule so that you can't quit until you double your $6M previous winnings or go broke." It doesn't take an IQ bigger than your shoe size to figure out there must be something up with this...

And, you know how much I hate admitting someone else is right.
:-)

It was last year when I read that article all the way through, and I had left with the impression that all he had done was tell the casino to let him keep playing and the long run would catch up.

> He must have been very proud of himself.

For Marcum personally it never was about helping Donald get his money back. It was all and ever only about seeing a mark and taking him down; the Trump was only the conduit Markum needed to make the play. He knew he could beat this chump. He didn't have the wheelbase to do it so he found himself a partner, crafted a bet, and won.

That's how I see it. Bravo for him.

Card counters that simply count cards don't impress me so much. Gamblers that find ways to beat other gamblers, be them casinos or whales, do.

I hope that seventy year old man was happier than a pig in slop that day when the gambler with more money than sense stomped off in a huff.