Should i take or break or try again?

I just started playing blackjack again this week.
My goal was to try and make approximately $100-$200 per hour (at about 2-3hrs a day) AKA $600 a day.

This goal is much higher than my previous goal which considered $100 a day to be a good profit.

This is what happened each day

Monday (2hrs): +$884

**+$884 after day one
Tuesday (2.5hrs): -$900

**-$16 after day two
Wednesday (2hrs): +$2116

**+$2100 MIDDLE of day three
Wednesday (last 20min): -$600

**+$1500 after day three
Thursday (1hr 10min): +$600

**+$2100 almost end of day four
Thursday (last 3min): -$1800!!

**+$300 end of day four.

As one can see I made $2100 in the 1st 2.9days, loss $600, recovered the $600 the next day. Then loss $1800 and walked away w $300 at
the end of the week.

Based on these results do you think I should take a break from playing for awhile, keep playing but far less agressively, or keep playing the way i am (except know when to quit when getting far ahead).

The reason im asking is while i've managed to recover losses before
those other times were $600, $800, $900 but never $1800.

Should I keep going in hopes of recovering from profits at the same rate i did this week. Or maybe instead of focusing on the $1800loss
i should count this weeks end result as a $300 net profit.
**but obviously i could have stopped halfway through day one to get the same result and not waste anymore of my time.

Is this common to win several days only to lose your weekly winings in 2min or was I unusually careless in the last 2min by not stopping once I started to lose a few hundred dollars fast.

**also I should probably also mention i won $2000 in 10hrs in order to pay for a vacation. but since im not keeping the 2grand as far as im concerned the net result is ZERO.

Am I paranoid to think I should stop playing now?

My goal was to try and make approximately $100-$200 per hour (at about 2-3hrs a day) AKA $600 a day.

I don't know how you arrived at this figure, but if your expected value is $200/hour, your standard deviation was probably around $2000/hour. This means 68% of the time you actual result will be between EV + $2000 and EV - $2000, and 95% of the time between EV + $4000 and EV - $4000.

Should I keep going in hopes of recovering from profits at the same rate i did this week. Or maybe instead of focusing on the $1800loss

If you indeed have the advantage, then you should continue playing. You will have positive and negative swings, sometimes large ones.

i should count this weeks end result as a $300 net profit.
**but obviously i could have stopped halfway through day one to get the same result and not waste anymore of my time.

If you have the advantage, your EV = advantage per hour * number of hours. The more you play, the more you will expect to win. Actual result may vary, but you will expect to win in the long run.

Is this common to win several days only to lose your weekly winings in 2min or was I unusually careless in the last 2min by not stopping once I started to lose a few hundred dollars fast.

**also I should probably also mention i won $2000 in 10hrs in order to pay for a vacation. but since im not keeping the 2grand as far as im concerned the net result is ZERO.

Am I paranoid to think I should stop playing now?

I don't recall casinos implanting memory chips in the cards. As such continuing to play should not based on previous results (except, of course, if you run out of money). The concepts of stop-loss or stop-win are meaningless to advantage players.

May I suggest you read Blackjack Attack. This book will explain many of the concepts you questioned here and much more.

His analysis and advice are all right on the mark. How did you lose $1800 in 3 minutes? What was the count? What is your bet spread?

Although over the years I have used some of my winnings for special purchases, I think it's best to keep your gambling bankroll separate. This way you won't ever be betting the mortgage/rent/food/college/etc. money. What fun is that? Not much. But until you can really build up a sizable bankroll, you won't be playing with "scared" money.

As PR wrote, the swings in blackjack are tremendous, especially if you put the big money when the count dictates it, which apparently you don't have a problem with. Maybe you over bet your advantage sometimes?

I lost $1800 because the maximum bet on the table was $500 and
minimum $5.

I hit a string of bad luck trying to increase the bets in hope of recovering losses, but by the time i lost $500 i tried placing the Max bet in hopes of winning.

the thing that really gets me is my goal for the day was to reach the $1800 mark and I did, and IMMEDIATELY AFTER I achieved my day's goal is when I started to lose more rapidly (weird huh).

================================

Yes I did keep the gaming money seperate from important $ (I'm not that dense).

I don't consider going on vacation a "necessary" expense so when I managed to make $2000 rather easily I thought id pocket it for the vacation and essential start over with the bankroll I had before.

Then I managed to make a $1800 bankroll again only to see it implode.
I was actually planning to make this $1800 my new bankroll I just didnt plan on having to essential start from scratch again.

I have $20left for my new bankroll so I'm going to find other ways to increase my bankroll before gaming again.

Besides I easily could have saved at least $1000 of it if I wasn't so careless.

On the plus side. I know that I somehow managed to make $2000 in 2hrs of gaming. (yes, about $1000 an hr)

Obviously im not going to exspect such winnings on a regualr basis.

Not I just need to know one thing:

how much bankroll should i have for 2hrs at the casino with $5min/$500 maximum

or 2hrs with $2min/$200 maximum

At the risk that you are a progressionist (in which case I'm wasting my time), I will give you some serious advice. At this point you are a gambler, not an advantage player. In order to be an AP, you need to know basic strategy (with index deviations)and your counting (with bet size) system perfectly, as well as mastered money management and emotional control. Seems like you don't qualify in any of them.

"I hit a string of bad luck trying to increase the bets in hope of recovering losses, but by the time i lost $500 i tried placing the Max bet in hopes of winning." YOUR QUOTE

The time to increase your bets is when the count calls for it, not to recover losses. Trying to place max bets in hopes of winning shows a lack of emotional control.

"the thing that really gets me is my goal for the day was to reach the $1800 mark and I did, and IMMEDIATELY AFTER I achieved my day's goal is when I started to lose more rapidly (weird huh)."

A gambler thinks in terms of stop wins and stop losses. An AP thinks in terms that they have the advantage until game, rules, or player conditions (tired,etc) change. The cards don't know how much you've won or lost.

"Yes I did keep the gaming money seperate from important $ (I'm not that dense).

I don't consider going on vacation a "necessary" expense so when I managed to make $2000 rather easily I thought id pocket it for the vacation and essential start over with the bankroll I had before." YOUR QUOTE

You say you understand the concept of keeping your gambling bankroll separate but then you didn't do it. It's your money and you can do whatever you want with it, but the only way to build up your bankroll is not to dip into it (at least for awhile).

"how much bankroll should i have for 2hrs at the casino with $5min/$500 maximum

or 2hrs with $2min/$200 maximum" YOUR QUOTE

Anything can happen in two hours. There is something called a bet spread (minimum bet to maximum). Assuming you are playing a shoe game, an AP's spread should not be more than 10-12 to 1, so if your min bet was $5, your max should be $60 (not your $500). This is so you don't draw attention from the pit.

After re-reading your second post and my second response (without looking back at your first post), my guess is that you never claimed to be an AP.

You just got very lucky in your gambling. Enjoy your vacation, buy some books recommended by people on this site, take the advice of people on this site, and don't go near even a $2 until you've mastered the four things I discussed previously. Otherwise, you will be just another sucker who goes in to a casino to lose their money. AP BJ is not glamorous (it's a grind, actually) and not always fun (the swings are very wild), but if you enjoy beating the house at their own game (and are willing to put in the work to do so), AP BJ could be for you.

Good luck.

Thanks for the advice.
You said for $5min that $60 is the big bet, but for 2hrs what should my session bankroll be? I've heard 40x min x #hours (40 x 5 x 2 = 400) is a good amount to bring.

My bankroll is essentially down to $20 LOL!

I was hoping you forgot some zeros behind the 20. Just put it all on black (or red) on roulette.

yeah i wish i was joking about the $20 but the only
other way to replenish my bankroll would be:

1) deprevive myself of essential
spending (food/entertainment/travel)
2) Reduce my vacation spending money ($2000 for 50days)
but I REALLY DONT want my vacation to suck by being too cheap so that option is pretty much out
3) ONLINE CASINO!! -use credit to gamble and create a bankroll

(too risky?)
4) borrow money?

Until I solve this problem, I wont be able to play any time soon.

Geez, I almost forgot. Apparantly on my euro vacation, part of the travel plans include going to Monte Carlo Casino!!!

But do I really want to wait for 3whole months until I can replenish my bankroll? or take a chance and gamble to make it NOW!
(since gambling wise it make no real difference)

What is your playing strategy? Do you count, shuffle-track, hole-card or do sequencing? If you are not using some legitimate form of play that gives you an advantage, then you aren't an AP. In that case, your best gambling strategy is to refrain from gambling or figure out the best way to score good comps with a minimal loss.

no I'm no AP. But I know w 100% certainity that I have made some money from gambling, so I'm not in the red (yet).

In fact EVERY TIME i've lost some big# amount ($100,$500,$640,$800,$900) ive managed to recover all these losses each and every time. Some might consider even breaking even due to my poor betting strategy as really lucky.

Either way u look at it though I've only been gambling ALL of January, a few days in April and 20hours(over 2weeks) in May.
So I dont exactly have a large sample size to analyze my results.

There's 2 ways i could look at my results over the last 2weeks
i) Net Profit Zero

Monday-Thurs: +$1800 Profit

last 2-3minThurs: $1800 LOSS

Net Profit (one week): $0
ii) NET LOSS $1800. Forget the fact that i was up $1800 over a few days and just concentrate on making back my $1800 NET LOSS

if I start gaming again with the mindset of option i then that means
:essentially the 1ast 2weeks was a waste of time
if I use option 2: i may fall even deeper into a hole trying to recover my "LOSS"

or maybe consider option iii) look @ $1800 LOSS as 3separate $600 Losses or 18 $100 losses and try to make back my losses more slowly over time

however NOT OF THIS MATTERS ANYMORE, since as my earlier posts indicated my bankroll went from $1800 down to $0, up to $20.

or maybe im just being paranoid, I mean despite my big loss I was doing well ($1800 in apprx 7hrs = $257/hr), and @ the end of the day the LOSSES only came out from my winnings and NOT FROM the $ I used to start gambling with from DAY ONE.

Congratulations! You've been gambling since January and you broke even. You could quit now without a loss or continue to play a negative expectation game. If you continue to play, you will gradually sink into the hole.

If you are serious about making money as a gambler, then you need to learn advantage play.

You have been given great advise by all who have responded to you on this board. Take a break now from the game and learn before you get burned.

You have come to the right place. Some of the best players in the world communicate on this board. My advise; quit now and learn the game, then apply what you have learned to make some $. You are nothing but a gambler right now. You are wasting your time and soon your $.

I've read the above comments and thank you for your suggestions.
Part of the reason for my "failures" is prehaps my $/hr goals are simply too unrealistic? **I tried to double my bankroll in an hour and was close but no cigar (went bust after 180% original bankroll)

I'm considering a new strategy:

bet 1% bankroll (flat bet) and try to finish with 104% bankroll @ the end of the day

1day being anywhere from 10minutes to 12hours (as long as I reach 104%) @ end of the day. **and stopping once I reach the goal.

Using Basic Strategy what are my chances on consistently making 4% increase each day? 2%? 1%?

**note: when I say 1% per day, this amount is constant and doesn't increase when my bankroll increases. aka if bankroll is $100 then 4% means $104 after day 1, $108 after day2, $112 after day 3....

Obviously my bankroll is larger than $100.

Using Basic Strategy what are my chances on consistently making 4% increase each day? 2%? 1%?

If you are in this for the long haul, I'd say your chances approach zero.

are u kidding? ur saying by bringing $100, the chance of making $1 profit daily is zero????? $1!

What about the chances of making that amount average per day
aka 2% 1% 3% -5% 4% 8% -10% -2% 0% 4%

5% 5% 5% -4% 6% 3% 1% 0.5% 0.5% -5% --> 20% in 20 days

aka 1% per day.

I said your chances approached zero. Yes, you could make a profit in 20 days playing a negative expectation game. But as a long term strategy, you won't. Over the long haul, the house advantage will tell.

Please believe me when I tell you that your experience over 54 hours of play is meaningless. I'm not trying to put you down or make you feel bad. I'm trying to tell you the truth about playing negative expectation games.

There are ways to exploit negative expectation games with comps and other perks, but expecting to actually win money at the game itself is nothing but a false hope.

"... stopping once I reach the goal."

You're just swimming out in the middle of the sea with your beliefs. Get some books and read them!